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Phase One deal: the good and bad for EMs

The latest data suggest that y/y EM export growth turned positive in December, having contracted for much of 2019. We think this will mark the start of a run of better EM export figures. Meanwhile, the Phase One US-China trade deal removes a downside risk that had clouded the outlook for China’s exports. But it could have some negative implications for a handful of other EMs.

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