Early signs suggest that aggregate EM growth strengthened in Q2. (See Chart 1.) Our GDP trackers point to a recoveries across most of the emerging world. The rebound seems to have strongest in Emerging Europe where Turkey’s recession probably eased in recent months. And there was a widespread pickup in consumer spending in May. But EMs still face serious headwinds, particularly from escalating trade disputes and subdued commodity prices. We think that growth will remain weak over the duration of this year and in most cases, our 2019 and 2020 GDP growth forecasts are below consensus.
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