After much wrangling, this week OPEC+ agreed to a partial roll over of its current collective output cut into next year. But the obvious divisions between members of the group mean the question marks over the future direction of oil supply are as large as ever. After all, if we are right in thinking that vaccines for COVID-19 will underpin a strong recovery in oil demand, the incentive to maintain output cuts will fade. For now, we are sticking to our forecast that the price of Brent will end next year at $60 per barrel, but the prospect of an abrupt end to output restraint by OPEC+ is a key downside risk to this view.
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