Energy supply squeeze to delay decline in prices

Low stocks ahead of winter in the Northern Hemisphere have sent energy prices soaring. In turn, higher energy costs have also constrained the production of other commodities, most notably industrial metals. Energy supply is likely to remain tight for at least the remainder of this year, which is a key reason why we have pushed back our forecasts for a broad-based decline in commodity prices into 2022. By then, once demand for energy has cooled and stocks have been rebuilt, commodity prices are likely to be dragged lower as global economic growth continues to slow. We think that industry and construction activity in China are on the cusp of a particularly deep downturn, which will be a key factor weighing on the prices of industrial metals.