China Activity & Spending (Aug.)

The hit to service activity from last month’s virus outbreak was even larger than we, and other forecasters, had anticipated. The rest of the economy held up better, although the headwinds facing the property sector appear to be intensifying.
Julian Evans-Pritchard Senior China Economist
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China Economics Weekly

Year-end policy bash to strike a more dovish tone

The upcoming Central Economic Work Conference in Beijing is likely to signal that policy is turning more supportive. But loosening will be measured, and growth over coming quarters will still slow.

3 December 2021

China Data Response

China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Nov.)

The Caixin manufacturing index published today slipped under 50 last month on the back of softer domestic demand. This contrasts with the official survey released yesterday. Taken together, the surveys still suggest that industrial output rebounded in November as power shortages abated. And they also point to easing factory-gate price pressures. Drop-In: Why is Asia sitting out the global inflation surge? 09:00 GMT/17:00 HKT, Thursday 2nd December

1 December 2021

China Data Response

China Official PMIs (Nov.)

The official PMIs suggest that industrial activity rebounded this month thanks to easing disruptions from power shortages while a renewed virus flare-up held back the recovery in services. And while we know little about its transmissibility and severity, the new Omicron variant could hold back a further economic recovery. On a more positive note, the surveys point to easing price pressures.

30 November 2021

More from Julian Evans-Pritchard

China Data Response

China Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Aug.)

Credit growth dropped in August to its slowest pace since December 2018. With the PBOC now shifting gears to a slightly more supportive stance, credit growth may level off in the coming quarters. But the usual lags mean that tight credit conditions will remain a headwind to economic activity in the near-term.

10 September 2021

China Economics Weekly

Evergrande credit risks, border controls

China’s banking system has large enough capital buffers to absorb an Evergrande collapse provided that the PBOC steps in to backstop the interbank market. Meanwhile, the one-sided reopening of the HK-mainland border says a lot about the priorities of Hong Kong officials and the continued caution of their mainland counterparts.

10 September 2021

China Data Response

China Consumer & Producer Prices (Aug.)

Producer price inflation reached its highest since August 2008 last month due to the rally in global commodity prices. But the breakdown suggests that upward pressure on the factory-gate prices of consumer goods is easing. Coupled with continued declines in food prices, this dragged consumer price inflation back below 1%. We think PPI inflation is likely to ease before long while CPI inflation will remain muted this year.

9 September 2021
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