While card transaction data have overstated the health of consumer spending in recent years, we suspect they didn’t do so recently. As such, we’re willing to take the jump in transaction amounts in Q3 at face value and have pencilled in a strong rise in consumption. Our forecast that consumption will rebound by 7% in 2021 is much stronger than the consensus of 3% and underpins our above-consensus 2021 GDP growth forecast of 4%.
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