Efforts by overseas governments to combat climate change will result in mining falling from 10% of GDP last year to 5% by 2050. Rising exports of “green” metals are unlikely to offset falling coal and iron ore exports and slower growth in liquefied natural gas exports. While our base case is that mining output will shrink gradually, the lack of a sovereign wealth fund in Australia means that the country is less well placed to deal with a sudden drop in demand than other large commodity producers.
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