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Australia International Trade (Jul. 2021)

The record trade surplus in July was largely driven by stronger commodity prices which won’t last. But we expect weaker domestic demand to weigh on imports over the coming months which should see trade make a positive contribution to growth this quarter.
Ben Udy Australia and New Zealand Economist
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Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

Housing downturn to weigh on activity

The housing downturn is now in full swing. While that hasn’t prevented a solid rise in consumption in Q2, we think falling wealth will be a drag on consumer spending next year. What’s more, our forecast that house prices will eventually fall 15% from their April peak would be consistent with dwelling investment falling sharply in the coming years. The upshot is that the housing downturn will bring the Australian economy close to recession next year.

1 July 2022

Australia & New Zealand Data Response

Australia CoreLogic House Prices (Jun.)

The monthly decline in house prices in June was the largest since 2019 but is unlikely to be the sharpest decline in the current downturn. We think house prices will eventually fall by 15% from their April peak, which will weigh heavily on GDP growth next year.

1 July 2022

Australia & New Zealand Data Response

Australia Retail Sales (May 2022)

The strong rise in retail sales in May highlights the strength in the Australian economy and is consistent with our view that the RBA will continue to hike rates aggressively in the months ahead.

29 June 2022

More from Ben Udy

Australia & New Zealand Data Response

Australia CoreLogic House Prices (Aug.)

The drag from the current lockdowns on the housing market won’t last, but we expect house price growth to slow in earnest next year as affordability constraints bite.

1 September 2021

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

Reopening moving closer as vaccine rollout speeds up

The easing of restrictions for vaccinated people in New South Wales announced today fell short of expectations but with the vaccine rollout accelerating, Australia’s lockdowns should end towards the end of October. Meanwhile, the RBNZ sounded hawkish this week and with restrictions set to ease across most of New Zealand next week, the Bank may not wait until next year before hiking rates.

27 August 2021

Australia & New Zealand Data Response

Australia Retail Sales (Jul 2021)

The decline in retail sales in July highlights the impact that lockdowns are having on the Australian economy. And with lockdowns spreading and intensifying in August, sales will fall further before they rebound.

27 August 2021
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