Ghana’s debt problem: muddling through

Ghana’s government is likely to slip behind on its fiscal consolidation plans in the coming years and the public debt-to-GDP ratio will probably continue to rise. While we think that the authorities will muddle through, concerns about the country’s fiscal health are only likely to grow and the economic costs of ‘living with’ higher debt will mount.
Virag Forizs Emerging Markets Economist
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Africa Economics Weekly

Recoveries trembling under new virus variant threat

A concerning new virus variant identified in Southern Africa has already prompted the re-imposition of restrictions on travellers from the region and triggered a flight to safety in global financial markets. A tightening of local containment measures is likely to follow, dampening economic activity, and the threat of a new virus wave will linger.
Drop-In: The B.1.1.529 strain – The economic and markets impact 10:00 ET/15:00 GMT, Friday 26th November Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing will be joined by senior economists from across our services at 10:00 ET/15:00 GMT today to give their views and answer your questions about the potential economic and markets impact of this new virus strain. Click here to register and to submit your questions ahead of the session. 

26 November 2021

Africa Economics Update

CBN maintains interest rates, but hints at policy shift

The Central Bank of Nigeria kept its benchmark rate on hold at 11.50% today, but the statement signalled that monetary policy normalisation is now on the horizon. While we don’t expect interest rates to be raised imminently, we have pencilled in 200bp of hikes over 2022-23.

23 November 2021

Africa Economics Weekly

African central banks and the EM rate hike club

This week, the South African Reserve Bank joined its EM counterparts in tightening monetary policy, but we don’t think that policymakers in South Africa will raise interest rates as aggressively as central banks across Emerging Europe and Latin America. Elsewhere, a further fall in inflation last month and soft Q3 GDP figures mean that Nigeria’s central bank is unlikely to join the EM rate hike club any time soon.

19 November 2021

More from Virag Forizs

Africa Economics Weekly

Vaccine tides turning in SSA? Evergrande reverberations

This week brought the prospect of an improvement in Sub-Saharan Africa’s vaccine supplies, but the region is still likely to struggle to catch up with the rest of the world in the global vaccination race. Meanwhile, although we expect the fallout from the Evergrande saga to be limited, the region’s metal producers like South Africa are exposed to weakness in China’s property sector. Finally, there has been some momentum towards a debt restructuring deal for Ethiopia, but this will probably be difficult to thrash out.

24 September 2021

Africa Economics Update

SARB to keep loose policy stance to bolster recovery

Policymakers in South Africa kept their benchmark rate unchanged at 3.50% today and concerns about lasting economic damage from the pandemic and recent unrest appear to be growing. Against a backdrop of a sluggish recovery and weak inflation, we think the repo rate will stay on hold until well into 2022.

23 September 2021

Africa Data Response

South Africa Consumer Prices (Aug.)

South Africa’s headline inflation rate picked up to 4.9% y/y in August but the temporary factors behind the rise are unlikely to worry policymakers. Subdued core price pressures and the slow economic recovery mean that we expect the Reserve Bank to keep rates on hold on Thursday and well into 2022.

22 September 2021
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