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Recovery in top economies will drive African rebound

We expect that growth in Sub-Saharan Africa will accelerate over the coming years as the three largest economies in the region – South Africa, Nigeria and Angola – recover from recent recessions. Indeed, our GDP forecasts for these countries in 2017 and 2018 all sit above the consensus. Growth in most other African economies is likely to be relatively stable, although a key exception is Kenya where balance sheet vulnerabilities are mounting and we expect that growth will weaken in 2017. Inflation is set to slow in most countries, meaning that the majority of central banks will lower interest rates over the course of 2017-18. In financial markets, we expect that most currencies will weaken, but at a gentler pace than in 2016.

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