US Commercial Property Office Metros Outlook Western and big six metros set for 25%+ price falls We have made substantial downgrades to our metro-level forecasts this quarter. The outlook for office-based employment growth has been hit by tech sector struggles, weighing on demand in many western... 14th April 2023 · 14 mins read
US Commercial Property Apartment Metros Outlook Capital values to fall 25% in San Fran, Seattle and D.C. We expect a surge in completions and a slowdown in employment growth to push vacancy substantially higher in all markets over the next few years. That will slam the brakes on rental growth, causing an... 12th April 2023 · 13 mins read
US Commercial Property Outlook Office values set to tank over the next two years We have made substantial downgrades to our forecasts this quarter. Aside from their direct impact through tighter lending conditions, last month’s regional bank failures appear to be helping... 6th April 2023 · 23 mins read
US Commercial Property Outlook Southern lead to narrow We now expect a small fall in rents next year in a handful of metros as affordability constraints and falling employment take their toll on demand. At the same time, a wave of completions in some of... 29th December 2022 · 12 mins read
US Commercial Property Outlook Atlanta, Dallas top the rankings; NYC, SF lose out Consistent with our national office story, we expect a few years of insipid rent growth and returns for most US office markets. Expensive coastal metros will continue to see weak demand as high rates... 23rd December 2022 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Outlook Total returns to turn negative in 2023, led by apartments The sharp rise in interest rates this year has prompted a price correction, which is now coming through in valuation-based indices. Combined with the mild recession we are forecasting for 2023, this... 19th December 2022 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Outlook Dallas offices set to lead the pack for rents and returns The overriding story this quarter is that although weak demand and steady inventory growth in the next couple of years will push up vacancy in many metros, we still see asking rents growing solidly as... 23rd September 2022 · 14 mins read
US Commercial Property Outlook Phoenix knocked off top spot by southern markets We expect a sharp slowdown in apartment rental growth across the board, as job growth slows, affordability constraints bite and an influx of supply pushes up vacancy. But some markets will perform... 16th September 2022 · 15 mins read
US Commercial Property Outlook Price correction to prove relatively small this time around Higher interest rates mean that real estate looks significantly overpriced in all sectors. The latest activity and performance data suggest that a correction is underway, but as we now think the 10... 9th September 2022 · 25 mins read
US Commercial Property Outlook Southern metros to outperform Since the release of our previous Apartment Metro Outlook three months ago the interest rate environment has become more negative for real estate, and we now expect yields to rise in many metros this... 12th July 2022 · 11 mins read
US Commercial Property Outlook Office Metro Outlook In light of the deterioration in the economic environment, our office metro forecasts have been downgraded across the board. Those downgrades are driven by a substantial shift in our yield view, which... 1st July 2022 · 14 mins read
US Commercial Property Outlook All-property returns to fall to zero next year as values slide The dramatic shift in the interest rate environment over the first half of the year means that we have brought forward (and increased) our forecasts for yield rises. Property valuations now look as... 21st June 2022 · 23 mins read
US Housing Market Outlook Apartment Metro Outlook Following a surge last year, rental growth at the national level is set to slow over the next couple of years as demand falls back and affordability constraints bite. Alongside a gradual rise in... 7th April 2022 · 11 mins read
US Commercial Property Outlook Office Metro Outlook (Q1 2022) We expect the best performing office markets over the next five years to be in Southern and Western metros, meaning that almost all the new additions to our forecast this quarter will outperform the... 31st March 2022 · 14 mins read
US Commercial Property Outlook Industrial returns to hit 20% in 2022 before plummeting We expect the robust investment activity seen last year, particularly in H2, to persist into 2022. Although this has competed yields to record lows in the industrial and apartment sectors, we still... 15th March 2022 · 22 mins read
US Commercial Property Outlook Major Office Markets Outlook (Q4 2021) Our stronger national office forecast this quarter mean upgrades to all six major markets. The largest of those uplifts is in Boston, which has seen a sharp rise up the rankings and where we expect... 23rd December 2021 · 15 mins read
