Europe Economics Weekly

Gridlock likely in France, ECB officials eye July pause

The prospect of a hung parliament in France suggests the country is headed for political gridlock and somewhat looser fiscal policy but that a large-scale fiscal expansion probably won’t materialise...

5th July 2024 · 6 mins read

UK Economics Update

Labour wins election: Some upside to GDP, inflation and rates

The big shift in the political landscape that has delivered the first Labour government since May 2010 is unlikely to lead to anything like as big a shift in the economic landscape. But at the margin...

5th July 2024 · 4 mins read

UK Economics Rapid Response

Exit Polls: Labour win would create some upside to our GDP, inflation and rate forecasts

The big shift in the political landscape that appears to be delivering a Labour government with a large majority is unlikely to lead to anything like as big a shift in the economic landscape. But at...

4th July 2024 · 4 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Egypt’s cabinet reshuffle, PMIs, Oman income tax

Egypt’s cabinet reshuffle gave the government a facelift, but it doesn’t look like there will be any U-turns on policymaking – and particularly the fiscal consolidation path. Meanwhile, the batch of...

4th July 2024 · 8 mins read

US Economics Update

Trump's lead creates conundrum for our forecasts

Following his disastrous debate performance last week, President Joe Biden’s odds of getting re-elected have gone from bad to worse. Former President Donald Trump is now unequivocally the favourite to...

3rd July 2024 · 3 mins read

Capital Daily

French election first-round relief rally might not last

Investors have welcomed the broadly unsurprising results of the first round of the French legislative elections, but the discount on French financial assets is still there and, in our view, likely to...

1st July 2024 · 5 mins read

Europe Economics Update

First round results of France’s parliamentary election

The preliminary results of the first round of voting are broadly in line with the final opinion polls, showing that Emmanuel Macron’s centrist coalition has lost out to both the left and right. But a...

30th June 2024 · 3 mins read

Capital Daily

Investors appear unfazed by odds favouring Trump

Incumbent President Biden’s uneven performance during the debate yesterday with his predecessor and challenger, Donald Trump, has reduced Biden’s perceived chance of winning re-election significantly...

28th June 2024 · 5 mins read

Europe Economics Weekly

Three scenarios for after the French election

With France heading to the polls on Sunday for the first round of the legislative election, the latest polls show a small uptick in support for the National Rally (RN) and French bond spreads have...

28th June 2024 · 10 mins read

UK Economics Weekly

A beacon of economic and political stability?

While we don’t expect Labour to rush to deviate from its manifesto if, as the polls suggest, it wins next week’s general election, the market reaction to the upcoming French election reinforces the...

28th June 2024 · 4 mins read

UK Economics Update

How much fiscal ‘headroom’ will the next government have?

If the polls are correct and Labour wins the election, the policies it implements and when it implements them will depend in part on the ‘headroom’ against the fiscal rules it is given by the Office...

27th June 2024 · 6 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Egypt blackouts, Morocco rate cut, Iran election

Gas shortages in Egypt have led to blackouts and hotter summers are likely to raise demand for energy in the future. Absent further large gas finds, Egypt’s time as a natural gas net exporter is...

27th June 2024 · 6 mins read

Africa Economic Outlook

Tight fiscal policy to constrain the recovery

Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa is set to accelerate over the next couple of years, helped by a more favourable external environment as well as falling inflation and interest rates. But tight fiscal...

27th June 2024 · 19 mins read

UK Markets Chart Pack

UK Markets Chart Pack (Jun. 2024)

The stability of UK financial markets ahead of the UK general election is striking when compared to the sharp moves in French asset prices ahead of the French legislative elections. It’s probably...

27th June 2024 · 1 min read

Europe Economics Update

How might the ECB respond to a French fiscal crisis?

If the results of France’s election, or actions of the next French government, trigger contagion to other euro-zone countries’ bond markets, the ECB could respond by purchasing their bonds using the...

25th June 2024 · 5 mins read