Climate Economics Focus How big a blow would Trump deal to green policy? A return of President Trump to the White House would be a shot across the bows for global efforts to reduce emissions – particularly as he would almost certainly withdraw the US from the Paris... 25th June 2024 · 13 mins read
Event Drop-In: Global Economic Outlook – Recovery signs clouded by political uncertainty 1719820800 Are signs of recovery sustainable? Is inflation receding enough for more central banks to join the global easing cycle?
Europe Economics Update Q&A on French election: politics, economics, markets This Update summarises the answers to some of the questions which clients raised in our recent online briefing about the forthcoming French legislative elections. The questions are divided into three... 24th June 2024 · 8 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SA GNU reform challenge, Kenya tax U-turn The government of national unity (GNU) formed by South Africa’s ANC and DA has led to a rally in local financial markets, but forming this unity government may prove to be the easy part. The necessary... 21st June 2024 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Three key economic implications of a Labour govt Since Labour’s fiscal plans are very similar to the current government’s and as Labour is unlikely to deviate from its manifesto quickly, we doubt we will be ripping up our economic forecasts on Day 1... 21st June 2024 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Excessive deficits; lessons from Italy’s 2018 mini crisis The European Commission this week announced its intention to put five euro-zone countries, including France and Italy, into Excessive Deficit Procedures. This will concentrate investors’ minds on the... 21st June 2024 · 7 mins read
Event Drop-In: French election outcome – Fiscal policy outlook and market risk 1720432800 Will this snap election mark the end of the France's political turmoil? And will the election results convince the bond vigilantes to stand down?
India Economic Outlook Economy in good shape as Modi 3.0 begins Prime Minister Modi begins his third term with a weakened mandate, but an economy that is primed to grow by 6.5-7% per year between 2024 and 2026. That would put India on course to become the world’s... 20th June 2024 · 16 mins read
Global Markets Update Political uncertainty to keep euro-zone spreads higher We expect political uncertainty in France to maintain a floor under government bond spreads in the near term, not only in France but also in other vulnerable euro-zone countries. Further ahead, we see... 19th June 2024 · 4 mins read
Event Europe Drop-In: French political turmoil and macro/market spillover risks 1718805600 Emmanuel Macron’s decision to call a snap legislative election has triggered turmoil in French politics that is spilling into its financial markets.
Africa Economics Weekly Nigeria food prices, Kenya budget, ANC-DA deal A surge in food prices in Nigeria this week presents a challenge to the optimistic tone the authorities are trying to strike on the inflation outlook. To contain these inflation risks for good, the... 14th June 2024 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily A poor week for French bonds and equities French government bonds and equities have sold off this week, and the euro has weakened. A lot of bad news now seems priced in, but we suspect the discount on French assets is here to stay. 14th June 2024 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update Political uncertainty might push French OAT yields even higher The 10-year yield spread between government bonds in France and Germany has risen above 80bp, its highest since the euro-zone debt crisis. Should the far-right National Rally be in a position to form... 14th June 2024 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Weekly How Labour could succeed in raising housebuilding With little fiscal space to play with, the next government will have to get creative in order to deliver on its manifesto pledges. Labour’s plan to change the law so that the state receives more of... 14th June 2024 · 9 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly France risk and ”reverse contagion” It is difficult to know how radical (or reckless) France’s next government will be on fiscal policy, but the risks to France’s public finances have certainly risen since the snap election was called... 14th June 2024 · 5 mins read
