Elections

India Economic Outlook

Economy in good shape as Modi 3.0 begins

Prime Minister Modi begins his third term with a weakened mandate, but an economy that is primed to grow by 6.5-7% per year between 2024 and 2026. That would put India on course to become the world’s...

20th June 2024 16 mins read

Global Markets Update

Political uncertainty to keep euro-zone spreads higher

We expect political uncertainty in France to maintain a floor under government bond spreads in the near term, not only in France but also in other vulnerable euro-zone countries. Further ahead, we see...

19th June 2024 4 mins read

Event

Europe Drop-In: French political turmoil and macro/market spillover risks

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Emmanuel Macron’s decision to call a snap legislative election has triggered turmoil in French politics that is spilling into its financial markets.

Africa Economics Weekly

Nigeria food prices, Kenya budget, ANC-DA deal

A surge in food prices in Nigeria this week presents a challenge to the optimistic tone the authorities are trying to strike on the inflation outlook. To contain these inflation risks for good, the...

14th June 2024 7 mins read

Capital Daily

A poor week for French bonds and equities

French government bonds and equities have sold off this week, and the euro has weakened. A lot of bad news now seems priced in, but we suspect the discount on French assets is here to stay.

14th June 2024 4 mins read

Global Markets Update

Political uncertainty might push French OAT yields even higher

The 10-year yield spread between government bonds in France and Germany has risen above 80bp, its highest since the euro-zone debt crisis. Should the far-right National Rally be in a position to form...

14th June 2024 4 mins read

UK Economics Weekly

How Labour could succeed in raising housebuilding

With little fiscal space to play with, the next government will have to get creative in order to deliver on its manifesto pledges. Labour’s plan to change the law so that the state receives more of...

14th June 2024 9 mins read

Europe Economics Weekly

France risk and ”reverse contagion”

It is difficult to know how radical (or reckless) France’s next government will be on fiscal policy, but the risks to France’s public finances have certainly risen since the snap election was called...

14th June 2024 5 mins read

Africa Economics Update

ANC-DA coalition helps to calm investors’ nerves

Reports that the African National Congress (ANC) has reached a deal with the centre-right Democratic Alliance (DA) to form a “national unity” government will be welcomed by investors. If confirmed...

14th June 2024 3 mins read

Event

UK Drop-In: The General Election results – The morning after and the macro/markets outlook

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Will the outcome of the UK general election move the dial on the UK economic outlook? How much would a Labour government deviate from Conservative economic policy?

UK Economics Update

Will the next government deliver or deviate from its manifesto?

While what’s in and what’s out of the election manifestos is informative, the bigger issue is whether the next government delivers or deviates from its manifesto. This Update sketches out three...

13th June 2024 7 mins read

UK Economics Focus

Could new fiscal rules spur on the economy?

The current fiscal framework is not perfect and could be reformed to improve investor confidence in the management of the public finances, tilt the composition of spending towards investment and...

12th June 2024 16 mins read

India Economics Update

Infrastructure drive likely to continue under Modi 3.0

The ramp-up in public capital expenditure in the last five years has helped to ease some of the bottlenecks that had previously acted as a constraint on India’s economy. Despite the Modi government’s...

11th June 2024 4 mins read