Emerging Europe Economics Weekly MNB easing to slow further, Turkey election preview The post-meeting communications from Hungary’s central bank (MNB) this week support our view that the pace of interest rate cuts will slow even further over the coming months. Meanwhile, Turkey’s... 28th March 2024 · 10 mins read
India Economics Weekly Election countdown, our new EM risk indicators We've entered the final few weeks before India's general election kicks off. All the signs point to another win for Prime Minister Modi's BJP but what really matters for the economy is whether the... 22nd March 2024 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa’s economy adding to the ANC’s struggles South Africa’s latest hard activity data show that the economy continued to struggle at the start of 2024, which will hardly help the ANC’s hopes of keeping its majority in parliament after May’s... 20th March 2024 · 4 mins read
India Economics Focus The general election: what is at stake? The biggest democratic exercise in history will shortly take place as India votes in its general election, starting on 19 th April. Given client interest, we are resending our Election Primer, first... 19th March 2024 · 12 mins read
Event EM Drop-In: After the big vote – India’s macro and markets outlook 1712822400 In a big year for elections, this is the biggest.
Emerging Europe Economics Update Putin 5.0: what to look out for now Vladimir Putin secured a record victory in Russia’s presidential election over the weekend. The focus now will be on whether this emboldens Putin to devote more resources to the war effort, whether... 18th March 2024 · 4 mins read
US Economics Focus Reshoring still more myth than reality Although it has been a priority for the last three administrations, the reshoring of lost manufacturing jobs remains more myth than reality. There has been a significant boom in the construction of hi... 12th March 2024 · 11 mins read
Latin America Economics Focus What would Trump 2.0 mean for Mexico? The impact of a second Trump presidency on Mexico’s economy would depend to a large extent on whether the USMCA deal remains intact or Mexico finds itself subject to US import tariffs. If the latter... 12th March 2024 · 15 mins read
Canada Economics Update Trump 2.0 poses new headwinds for Canada The key risk for Canada’s economy from the US presidential election is that a Trump administration could pull out of the USMCA, leaving Canada subject to any US import tariffs. To avoid that, Canada... 11th March 2024 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Sheinbaum’s 100 commitments, inflation worries The recently-unveiled policy plans from Claudia Sheinbaum, the frontrunner to become Mexico’s next president, are aimed at building on President López Obrador’s legacy, but her proposals are likely to... 8th March 2024 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Russia: what to watch under Putin 5.0 The outcome of Russia’s presidential election taking place over 15-17 th March is not in doubt: Putin is all but certain to secure a fifth term until 2030. But the election still has significance... 7th March 2024 · 21 mins read
UK Economics Focus Spring Budget – Pre-election boost to turn into post-election drag The net giveaway of £13.9bn (0.5% of GDP) in 2024/25 in the Budget may help end the recession before an election later this year. But fiscal policy is still being tightened in 2024/25 and that... 6th March 2024 · 16 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Spring Budget 2024 The net fiscal giveaway of £13.9bn (0.5% of GDP) in 2024/25 in the Budget may at the margin help lift the economy out of its mild recession before an election later this year. But a big tightening in... 6th March 2024 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Mexico’s election campaign, Brazil’s G20 damp squib Campaigning for Mexico’s election on 2nd June officially kicks off today. The presidential front-runner, Claudia Sheinbaum, will probably continue the social policies of her predecessor but is likely... 1st March 2024 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Update The implications of different combos of Prime Minister & President The outlook for the UK economy is unlikely to be very different depending on which of the possible combinations of UK Prime Ministers and US Presidents this year’s elections deliver. Even so, there... 26th February 2024 · 7 mins read
