Capital Daily Investors appear unfazed by odds favouring Trump Incumbent President Biden’s uneven performance during the debate yesterday with his predecessor and challenger, Donald Trump, has reduced Biden’s perceived chance of winning re-election significantly... 28th June 2024 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Three scenarios for after the French election With France heading to the polls on Sunday for the first round of the legislative election, the latest polls show a small uptick in support for the National Rally (RN) and French bond spreads have... 28th June 2024 · 10 mins read
UK Economics Weekly A beacon of economic and political stability? While we don’t expect Labour to rush to deviate from its manifesto if, as the polls suggest, it wins next week’s general election, the market reaction to the upcoming French election reinforces the... 28th June 2024 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt blackouts, Morocco rate cut, Iran election Gas shortages in Egypt have led to blackouts and hotter summers are likely to raise demand for energy in the future. Absent further large gas finds, Egypt’s time as a natural gas net exporter is... 27th June 2024 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Update How much fiscal ‘headroom’ will the next government have? If the polls are correct and Labour wins the election, the policies it implements and when it implements them will depend in part on the ‘headroom’ against the fiscal rules it is given by the Office... 27th June 2024 · 6 mins read
Africa Economic Outlook Tight fiscal policy to constrain the recovery Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa is set to accelerate over the next couple of years, helped by a more favourable external environment as well as falling inflation and interest rates. But tight fiscal... 27th June 2024 · 19 mins read
UK Markets Chart Pack UK Markets Chart Pack (Jun. 2024) The stability of UK financial markets ahead of the UK general election is striking when compared to the sharp moves in French asset prices ahead of the French legislative elections. It’s probably... 27th June 2024 · 1 min read
Climate Economics Focus How big a blow would Trump deal to green policy? A return of President Trump to the White House would be a shot across the bows for global efforts to reduce emissions – particularly as he would almost certainly withdraw the US from the Paris... 25th June 2024 · 13 mins read
Europe Economics Update How might the ECB respond to a French fiscal crisis? If the results of France’s election, or actions of the next French government, trigger contagion to other euro-zone countries’ bond markets, the ECB could respond by purchasing their bonds using the... 25th June 2024 · 5 mins read
Event Drop-In: Global Economic Outlook – Recovery signs clouded by political uncertainty 1719820800 Are signs of recovery sustainable? Is inflation receding enough for more central banks to join the global easing cycle?
Europe Economics Update Q&A on French election: politics, economics, markets This Update summarises the answers to some of the questions which clients raised in our recent online briefing about the forthcoming French legislative elections. The questions are divided into three... 24th June 2024 · 8 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SA GNU reform challenge, Kenya tax U-turn The government of national unity (GNU) formed by South Africa’s ANC and DA has led to a rally in local financial markets, but forming this unity government may prove to be the easy part. The necessary... 21st June 2024 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Three key economic implications of a Labour govt Since Labour’s fiscal plans are very similar to the current government’s and as Labour is unlikely to deviate from its manifesto quickly, we doubt we will be ripping up our economic forecasts on Day 1... 21st June 2024 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Excessive deficits; lessons from Italy’s 2018 mini crisis The European Commission this week announced its intention to put five euro-zone countries, including France and Italy, into Excessive Deficit Procedures. This will concentrate investors’ minds on the... 21st June 2024 · 7 mins read
Event Drop-In: French election outcome – Fiscal policy outlook and market risk 1720432800 Will this snap election mark the end of the France's political turmoil? And will the election results convince the bond vigilantes to stand down?
