Africa Economics Update ANC-DA coalition helps to calm investors’ nerves Reports that the African National Congress (ANC) has reached a deal with the centre-right Democratic Alliance (DA) to form a “national unity” government will be welcomed by investors. If confirmed... 14th June 2024 · 3 mins read
Event UK Drop-In: The General Election results – The morning after and the macro/markets outlook 1720168200 Will the outcome of the UK general election move the dial on the UK economic outlook? How much would a Labour government deviate from Conservative economic policy?
UK Economics Update Will the next government deliver or deviate from its manifesto? While what’s in and what’s out of the election manifestos is informative, the bigger issue is whether the next government delivers or deviates from its manifesto. This Update sketches out three... 13th June 2024 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Focus Could new fiscal rules spur on the economy? The current fiscal framework is not perfect and could be reformed to improve investor confidence in the management of the public finances, tilt the composition of spending towards investment and... 12th June 2024 · 16 mins read
India Economics Update Infrastructure drive likely to continue under Modi 3.0 The ramp-up in public capital expenditure in the last five years has helped to ease some of the bottlenecks that had previously acted as a constraint on India’s economy. Despite the Modi government’s... 11th June 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Political uncertainty in France unnerves markets French President Emmanuel Macron’s decision to call for snap elections has triggered a negative reaction in markets, not only in France but also in the rest of the EU. Even though the far-right... 10th June 2024 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico’s energy sector at a turning point? Mexican President-elect Claudia Sheinbaum’s strong environmental credentials mean that a shift away from fossil fuels and towards renewables is likely during her tenure. We doubt that she’ll fully... 10th June 2024 · 5 mins read
Event Drop-In: Europe’s shock election results, Macron’s gamble and the economic outlook 1718013600 The shock results of Europe’s parliament elections have roiled markets as investors respond harshly to news of President Macron’s surprise decision to dissolve F
Africa Economics Weekly SA’s uncertain coalition talks, Nigeria’s strike South Africa’s post-election uncertainty continued this week, with the ANC outlining its desire for a government of national unity with a broad range of opposition parties. This looks like a non... 7th June 2024 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Mexico’s ‘supermajority’ worries, Brazil’s Q1 GDP figures The prospect of a Morena-led supermajority in Mexico’s congress following Sunday’s election could allow Amlo's proposed constitutional amendments to see the light of day, weakening Mexico’s... 7th June 2024 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Weekly The disconnect between the tax and spending plans While both the Conservatives and the Labour Party have been talking a good game on tax, there is a big disconnect between their desire to keep tax low and their plans to increase spending. In a... 7th June 2024 · 9 mins read
India Economics Weekly Dust settling on election, MPC pendulum swinging Indian equities have ended an extraordinary week higher than where they began, which we think partly reflects the fact that investors have realised that a coalition government is not a terminal blow... 7th June 2024 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Update The implications of Modi 3.0 for India’s equity market India’s election result isn’t, in our view, reason to turn downbeat on the country’s equity market, its wobbles earlier this week notwithstanding. But with a very positive story seemingly still priced... 6th June 2024 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Update Which taxes could rise after the election? Whoever wins the general election on 4th July will have three main choices when it comes to spending and taxes. First, the new government could change the fiscal rules to give itself more fiscal space... 5th June 2024 · 5 mins read
India Economics Update What Modi 3.0 means for India's economy Narendra Modi will begin his third term as India’s Prime Minister with a weakened mandate and that will make the passage of contentious economic reforms more difficult. But he will still be able to... 4th June 2024 · 3 mins read
