Event

LatAm Drop-In: Mexico’s economy and markets as Sheinbaum takes charge

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Our economists think Mexico will be Latin America’s worst-performing economy in the coming years. Will its new president be able to change the narrative?

Europe Economics Weekly

ECB-Fed revisited, France’s new government

We do not think the Fed’s 50bp rate cut or the latest euro-zone HICP inflation breakdown will put the ECB off its plans for gradual policy easing. Meanwhile, France looks close to having a new...

20th September 2024 · 7 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Update

EMs: key client questions answered

We recently held a series of EM-focused client meetings in Switzerland and Germany which covered a wide range of topics, including the impact of global fracturing, AI and the green transition on...

16th September 2024 · 5 mins read

China Economics Update

The differences for China in Harris versus Trump

A second Trump term would bring greater uncertainty to US-China relations, challenges to a global economic order that has helped China prosper, higher tariffs (probably) on Chinese goods, and...

12th September 2024 · 5 mins read

Latin America Economics Update

Mexico’s constitutional reforms: Amlo’s parting shot?

The approval by Mexico's Senate to a sweeping judicial reform has removed the last big obstacle to outgoing President López Obrador’s controversial plan to overhaul the justice system. In light of...

11th September 2024 · 7 mins read

Europe Economics Weekly

Mr Brexit and France’s €16bn fiscal hole

France’s new prime minister, Michel Barnier, will have his work cut out trying to pass a budget that will bring the deficit down to levels acceptable to the European Commission. Meanwhile, the latest...

6th September 2024 · 6 mins read

Europe Rapid Response

Germany State Elections

The big rise in populist parties in elections in two East German states at the weekend doesn’t threaten the survival of the governing coalition but it points to some political challenges in Germany...

2nd September 2024 · 3 mins read

US Economics Weekly

Harris plans major tax hikes

After unveiling plans to boost spending and cut taxes for the middle-class in a big speech a couple of weeks ago, Vice President Kamala Harris has quietly acknowledged since then that she intends to...

30th August 2024 · 7 mins read

Latin America Economics Update

Mexico’s constitutional reforms: Amlo’s parting shot?

The swearing in of a new congress next month gives Mexico’s outgoing president, Amlo, a one month window to re-start plans to pass controversial planned constitutional amendments. At the very least...

22nd August 2024 · 7 mins read

US Economics Update

Harris unveils populist economic plan

Kamala Harris unveiled her economic plan today and it appears to be focused on mostly small-scale pocket-book populist issues. Our main take-away is that, like her opponent Donald Trump, she has shied...

16th August 2024 · 2 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Argentine inflation, Brazil’s hawks, change in Venezuela?

Suggestions from the governments of Brazil and Colombia have led to a bit of movement towards solving Venezuela’s post-election stand-off. A lot remains uncertain, but our sense is that the likelihood...

16th August 2024 · 6 mins read

Global Markets Focus

The US election and financial markets three months out

Financial markets have largely taken the dramatic events in the US presidential race over the past month in stride. While the race now appears to be back to a coin toss, the prospect of a second Trump...

1st August 2024 · 18 mins read

US Economics Focus

Trumponomics: Rhetoric versus reality

If implemented in full on day one, Donald Trump’s trade, immigration and fiscal policies would together be stagflationary. We suspect that he will be forced to water down his plans, however, and it...

31st July 2024 · 14 mins read

Global Markets Focus

EZ spreads on different paths after French election

We have revised down our forecasts for government bond spreads in Spain and Portugal, but we continue to think that those in France, as well as in Italy and Belgium, are more likely to rise than fall.

31st July 2024 · 14 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Venezuela votes, Mexico’s gigafactory & inflation worries

Opinion polls suggest that Venezuela’s election on Sunday could bring Chavismo to an end, allowing the economy to open up and for sanctions to be lifted. But we doubt that the economic damage of the...

26th July 2024 · 8 mins read