Europe Economics Focus

German debt brake to cause more self-inflicted pain

Fiscal policy has become almost as fraught in Germany as it is in France and Italy, but rather than from a desire to run very loose fiscal policy, Germany’s woes stem from its strict “debt brake”...

23rd July 2024 · 21 mins read

Event

US Drop-In: After Biden – Macro and market risks as the election race takes a twist

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The dramatic departure of Joe Biden throws fresh uncertainty into the US presidential election race.

US Rapid Response

Trump still favourite, as Biden withdraws

After his disastrous debate performance, President Joe Biden has dropped out of the race to be re-elected in this November’s election. His withdrawal letter acknowledges Vice President Kamala Harris...

21st July 2024 · 2 mins read

Event

EM Drop-In: Trump’s return and the Ukraine war – Key macro and market implications

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Donald Trump says he can end the war in Ukraine in a day if he’s re-elected this November.

Latin America Economics Update

Venezuela’s election: time for change?

The latest polls suggest that the opposition is on track to win Venezuela’s election later this month but President Maduro is likely to do all he can to cling on to power. If he manages to do so...

18th July 2024 · 6 mins read

Capital Daily

Treasury yield curve inversion nears its end?

We expect short-term US Treasury yields to keep falling more rapidly than long-term ones, eventually putting an end to more than two years of an inverted yield curve.

16th July 2024 · 4 mins read

Capital Daily

Four key points on Trump & financial markets

Recent events have increased the perceived likelihood of another Trump presidency and, in the process, provided a clearer steer on how market participants expect such an outcome to affect key...

15th July 2024 · 4 mins read

Europe Economics Weekly

France struggling (and not just at football)

France has made little progress towards forming a new government since the second round of the elections last Sunday. But when a new administration is eventually formed, it will struggle to agree a...

12th July 2024 · 5 mins read

Capital Daily

We still think the euro will fare well against the pound

In the wake of the political tumult in France contrasting with newfound stability in the UK, the outlook for the exchange rate between the euro and sterling has come into spotlight. We think that...

9th July 2024 · 4 mins read

Europe Economics Update

What next for France?

The results of France’s parliamentary elections mean it should avoid the large, unfunded fiscal expansion that two of the three major political groups were advocating. But it also means France is very...

8th July 2024 · 9 mins read

Capital Daily

Wait-and-see in markets as France avoids far-right PM

The surprising results of the French legislative elections have not triggered much of a market reaction. While investors appear to have been relieved by the far-right National Rally (RN)’s failure to...

8th July 2024 · 4 mins read

Debate over lack of ‘fiscal space’ misses the point

Europe Rapid Response

Second round results of France’s parliamentary election

The exit polls for the second-round of France’s legislative election are certainly a surprise. The left-wing New Popular Front (NFP) appears to have become the biggest group in parliament, while...

7th July 2024 · 3 mins read

UK Economics Update

Where are fiscal concerns greatest – the UK, France or US?

With the public finances in the UK in decent shape relative to France and the US, and the new UK government committing to greater fiscal discipline, we think investors are right not to worry as much...

5th July 2024 · 5 mins read

UK Economics Weekly

The key milestones ahead as Starmer enters No. 10

As the dust settles on the election result, there will be a lot of discussion about what comes next. We think Labour may move quickly on its low-cost supply side reforms, such as overhauling planning...

5th July 2024 · 8 mins read