Latin America Economics Weekly

Q1 growth rebound, Panama votes, fiscal risks rising

The activity data from Latin America released over the past week or so suggest that, having come to a standstill in Q4, there was a strong rebound in growth in Q1 on the back of robust services...

3rd May 2024 · 8 mins read

UK Economics Weekly

OECD too gloomy, rebound in job vacancies fleeting

Our forecast that CPI inflation will fall further than most expect explains why we think the OECD’s recent take on the UK economy is too gloomy. And while the recent rebound in job vacancies could...

3rd May 2024 · 8 mins read

Latin America Economics Update

Panama’s next president to face growing fiscal challenge

José Raúl Mulino, the front-runner in Panama’s presidential election scheduled for Sunday, has pledged to reinvigorate growth. But as we’ve been arguing for some time, the economy’s time as Latin...

29th April 2024 · 3 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Focus

What Trump’s return would mean for EMs

All the signs suggest that a second Trump administration would take a more protectionist approach to trade. Export demand in Mexico, East Asia and ASEAN would be particularly hard hit by a universal...

29th April 2024 · 13 mins read

Africa Economics Weekly

No SARB rate cuts in 2024, SSA subsidy removal

The SARB’s biannual Monetary Policy Review published this week, which showed less confidence in South Africa’s disinflation trend and reiterated the desire to move to a lower inflation target...

26th April 2024 · 5 mins read

UK Economics Update

Fiscal Headroom Monitor: Limited scope for tax cuts

If sustained, the recent rises in market interest rate expectations and gilt yields may mean that the Chancellor has only around £5bn of fiscal headroom, down from £8.9bn in the March Budget, with...

23rd April 2024 · 4 mins read

Africa Economics Update

South Africa’s fragmenting parliament a fiscal headache

South Africa’s upcoming general election looks likely to result in a much more fragmented parliament and mark a shift to coalition government. The lesson from elsewhere in the emerging world is that...

23rd April 2024 · 3 mins read

Africa Economics Weekly

Nigeria naira rebound, SA election and late rate cuts

The naira’s surprising recent recovery appears to have been driven by FX reserve sales and the currency risks becoming overvalued again. We think renewed naira weakness is on the cards over the rest...

19th April 2024 · 6 mins read

India Economics Weekly

Election begins, RBI intervention, Middle East tensions

India's mammoth general election has just kicked off. Results will be announced on 4 th June and as things stand, PM Modi’s BJP looks on course for another big win. Meanwhile, the rupee fell to a...

19th April 2024 · 4 mins read

Africa Economics Update

South Africa’s economy may be turning a corner

South Africa’s latest hard activity data provided some encouraging signs that the economy may be turning the corner even if it comes too late to help the ANC’s hopes of keeping its majority in...

17th April 2024 · 3 mins read

Latin America Economics Update

Five key challenges for Mexico’s next president

The latest polls ahead of Mexico’s election on 2nd June suggest that Claudia Sheinbaum, protégée of incumbent President Andrés Manuel López Obrador (Amlo), is likely to become the country’s next...

17th April 2024 · 6 mins read

Latin America Economics Update

Middle East tensions may support Venezuela’s oil sector

Concerns about escalating tensions in the Middle East and the impact on global oil supplies increase the likelihood that the US will renew its sanctions waiver on Venezuela when the current one...

16th April 2024 · 4 mins read

Africa Economics Weekly

Zuma to stand, SA activity, Nigeria fuel prices

A court decision this week in South Africa has laid the ground for former president Zuma to stand in next month’s elections and opinion polls suggest that his MK Party will become the third largest in...

12th April 2024 · 7 mins read

India Economics Weekly

Manufacturing ambitions across the political spectrum

The general election kicks off in a week and manifestos are finally being released. Manifestos are rarely followed closely in India, but nevertheless it is encouraging that there is broad agreement...

12th April 2024 · 4 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Update

Turkey election: AKP defeat = good news for investors

The strong showing for the opposition in Turkey’s local elections on Sunday highlights the extent of voter frustration with high inflation and we think that it should be interpreted as a positive for...

2nd April 2024 · 3 mins read