Europe Economics Focus What will US protectionism mean for the euro-zone? Our base case is that protectionist policies from the US next year will have only a small economic impact on Europe, but the fallout will vary between countries and there are risks of greater damage... 22nd November 2024 · 20 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK S&P Global Flash PMIs (Nov. 2024) At face value, the fall in the composite PMI from 51.8 in October to 49.9 in November suggests that real GDP growth is contracting in the middle of Q4, following a muted expansion of 0.1% q/q in Q3... 22nd November 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Retail Sales (Oct. 2024) The bigger-than-expected 0.7% m/m fall in retail sales in October (consensus forecast -0.3% m/m) suggests that households’ concerns about tax rises announced in the Budget on 30th October contributed... 22nd November 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Spain’s labour market sizzling Spain’s economy is outperforming the euro-zone as a whole, and the difference is also evident in the labour market, which is still tightening at a decent pace in Spain. There now appears to be little... 21st November 2024 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Romania’s election: macro stability in the balance Romania will elect a new government over the coming weeks at a time when the economy is performing poorly, inflation is running above target, and macroeconomic stability depends on policymakers... 21st November 2024 · 22 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Interest Rate Announcement (Nov.) The communications accompanying the decision by the Turkish central bank to leave its policy rate unchanged again today, at 50.00%, suggest that analysts’ expectations for an easing cycle to start in... 21st November 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack (Q4 2024) Stable property yields and solid rental growth supported a second rise in prime all-property values in Q3. While there is still likely to be upward pressure on yields in some markets, property values... 21st November 2024 · 0 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Public Finances (Oct. 2024) October’s disappointing public finances figures underline the fiscal challenge that the Chancellor still faces, despite the big increases in spending and taxes announced in the Budget. And while the... 21st November 2024 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update How will other countries respond to Trump’s tariffs? The experience of the first Trump administration suggests that other countries will retaliate to the imposition of new US tariffs but in a way that is measured and minimises the risk of escalating... 20th November 2024 · 9 mins read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack UK Housing Market Chart Pack (Nov. 2024) Our new forecast that Bank Rate will fall slower and not as far means that we now think mortgage rates will decline from 4.4% in October to 3.9% by the end of 2026, rather than to 3.5%. But we still... 20th November 2024 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Trump and EMs: key questions answered We held a series of client meetings in the US last week which focused on the implications of Trump’s victory in the US election and the spillovers to EMs. This Update answers some of the most frequent... 20th November 2024 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update Jump in negotiated wage growth largely due to one-offs The jump in euro-zone negotiated wage growth in Q3, to a record high of 5.4%, was mostly due to one-off payments in Germany. Wage growth elsewhere was little changed. With headline inflation around 2%... 20th November 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Investment to pick up but remain sluggish in 2025 The recovery in euro-zone real estate investment has been weak in 2024, with total activity in the first three quarters little changed on 2023’s near-record-lows. However, prospects for 2025 are... 20th November 2024 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Consumer Prices (Oct. 2024) October’s surprisingly large rebound in CPI inflation from 1.7% to 2.3% (CE 2.1%, consensus & BoE 2.2%) won’t stop the Bank of England from cutting interest rates further. But it lends some support to... 20th November 2024 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Which sectors will benefit most from AI? Artificial intelligence (AI) is still not being used very widely outside of the ICT sector. But we remain confident that, in time, it has the potential to be used across all sectors and industries. 19th November 2024 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Update Underlying price pressures fading gradually Services inflation in the euro-zone has been stuck around 4% for the past 12 months, but there are good reasons to expect it to decline significantly next year. We think that core inflation will... 19th November 2024 · 3 mins read
