Europe Economics Update Europe being left behind in the AI boom While huge investment in AI has been driving US GDP growth this year, Europe has seen a negligible boost to investment. And it seems unlikely that AI investment in Europe will increase by much in the... 14th October 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update CRE NPLs in Germany now highest in the EU and more on the way The notable rise in the share of non-performing loans to commercial real estate in Germany over the past couple of years stands out within the EU. We expect further increases to come in Germany, but... 14th October 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Is this the start of a sharp slowdown in the UK housing market? Concerns over possible tax rises in the Budget on 26th November, higher mortgage rates and the weak jobs market have left the housing market paralysed. We doubt this is the start of a sharp slowdown... 14th October 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Labour Market (Aug./Sep. 2025) The modest further falls in both payroll employment and job vacancies in September suggest that the labour market is loosening, but wage growth is still easing only fairly gradually. This suggests the... 14th October 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Assessing the impact of Next Generation EU We estimate that the EU’s pandemic recovery scheme, Next Generation EU (NGEU), will have boosted GDP in countries such as Greece and Italy by around 1.5% over its six-year lifetime. It therefore... 10th October 2025 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Ceasefire in Gaza, NBP’s dovish surprise The ceasefire in Gaza which came into force today will, if it proves lasting, support the ongoing recovery in Israel’s economy and makes an interest rate cut by the central bank at its next meeting... 10th October 2025 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Is the Budget already buffeting the economy? The recent poor performance of the housing market and the weakness in consumer and business sentiment probably has more to do with rising inflation, higher mortgage rates and the stuttering jobs... 10th October 2025 · 9 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly France’s worrying deficit, Germany‘s timid reforms Even if it avoids early elections, France looks set to pass a budget which reduces the deficit only fractionally next year and President Macron’s prized pension reforms are now at risk of being partly... 10th October 2025 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Gold rally flatters Turkey’s FX reserves The gold price rally has inflated the Turkish central bank’s foreign assets by $30bn this year, strengthening Turkey’s external position but creating an illusion of progress in the rebalancing process... 9th October 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Why are the UK’s borrowing costs higher than France’s? The UK’s high borrowing costs relative to those of France appears to reflect differences in monetary policy and its higher inflation rate, rather than greater fiscal concerns. As inflation in the UK... 9th October 2025 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Update How much will ETS2 add to euro-zone inflation? The introduction of the EU’s Emissions Trading System 2 will add only a small amount to headline inflation in the euro-zone in 2027, perhaps just 0.1 percentage points. So ETS2 is unlikely to be... 9th October 2025 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Has the threat from QT passed? Quantitative tightening has not been the main driver of higher bond yields in recent years, but it has contributed. With the process now at or near an end in the US and Canada, the threat that further... 9th October 2025 · 5 mins read
UK Housing Market Update UK RICS Residential Market Survey (Sep. 2025) September’s RICS survey provides further evidence that the prospect of tax rises in the Budget on 26th November has put the housing market on ice, particularly in London. If taxes on property were to... 9th October 2025 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Interest Rate Announcement (Oct.) The decision by the National Bank of Poland to cut its policy rate by 25bp today, to 4.50%, was a dovish surprise to most analysts (including ourselves), although we think the scope for further... 8th October 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Update UK Car finance refunds slim compensation with tax rises coming The possible £8.2bn of compensation for the mis-selling of car finance will be a nice windfall for some households. But it’s much smaller than the similar payments of £38.3bn in the 2010s and will... 8th October 2025 · 4 mins read
