Emerging Europe Rapid Response Emerging Europe Manufacturing PMIs (Nov.) The increase in the manufacturing PMIs out of Emerging Europe in November offers some encouragement that demand conditions in the region’s industrial sectors may be past the worst. We expect a pickup... 1st December 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey GDP (Q3 2025) The slowdown in Turkish GDP growth in Q3, to 1.1% q/q, still leaves the economy running relatively hot. But the positive contribution from net exports suggests that policymakers’ efforts to rebalance... 1st December 2025 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly A path to peace? The revised peace plan worked on by the US and Ukraine in Geneva last Sunday has the potential to result in a more balanced framework to end the war in Ukraine than looked likely last week, but we... 28th November 2025 · 7 mins read
Commodities Weekly Fall in EU natural gas prices has further to run The recent fall in the EU natural gas benchmark to below €30 per MWh has its roots in a potential peace deal between Russia and Ukraine, but we are sceptical that any agreement would have much direct... 28th November 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly German pension policy: backsliding more than France? While much attention has been given recently to pension policy in France, it has gone almost unnoticed that the German cabinet has approved a pension package that could be significantly more costly... 28th November 2025 · 8 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Chancellor puts MPs and the markets ahead of growth In this week’s Budget, the Chancellor pulled off the delicate balancing act of not upsetting Labour MPs, who wanted higher spending, and investors, who wanted to see fiscal discipline. But the... 28th November 2025 · 5 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Germany, France, Italy & Spain HICP (November 2025) The national inflation data for November published today suggest that headline and core inflation in the euro-zone edged up. 28th November 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Nov. 2025) Capital outflows from EMs have picked up over the past month, particularly from Asian equity markets which may reflect the broader drop in tech stocks globally. But the scale of outflows is limited... 27th November 2025 · 0 mins read
Europe Economics Update High-quality job growth supporting Spanish incomes While Spain’s fast rate of employment growth has attracted attention recently, the quality of jobs has also improved. In particular, the information and communication sector has seen significant... 27th November 2025 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response CEE Economic Sentiment Indicators (Nov.) The European Commission’s Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe generally rose in November and point to solid regional growth in Q4. That said, firms’ selling price expectations... 27th November 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Focus Autumn Budget - Markets give the smaller-than-expected Budget the thumbs up After months of speculation and an unprecedented leak of all the details an hour before the Chancellor’s speech, the financial markets have given the Budget the thumbs up and the Budget doesn’t... 26th November 2025 · 19 mins read
Capital Daily Muddle-through budget supports the case for lower Gilt yields The Gilt market is breathing a sigh of relief after the much-anticipated UK budget announcement today delivered less bad news than feared and the Chancellor appears to have, so far, come out of a... 26th November 2025 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Budget (26th Nov. 2025) This is our initial take on the Budget based on the leaked details reported on the newswires ahead of the Chancellor’s speech and the initial market reaction. See here for our more detailed analysis... 26th November 2025 · 4 mins read
Event Drop-In: The World in 2026 - The global macro and market outlook 10th December 2025, 3:00PM GMT Will the US economy continue to outperform on the back of the AI boom? How will trade tensions shape global macro outcomes?
UK Commercial Property Outlook UK Commercial Property Outlook: Higher gilt yields and taxes to weigh on recovery With the 10-year gilt yield now set to be higher for longer and the Budget likely to raise taxes on households, the outlook for commercial property has become a bit gloomier. We now expect total... 25th November 2025 · 26 mins read
Europe Economics Update No surge in EZ imports from China this year Fears of an influx of imports from China to the euro-zone this year have not materialised. The volume of imports from China has risen but not at an exceptional pace, and both volumes and values remain... 25th November 2025 · 3 mins read
