UK Commercial Property Rapid Response S&P Global/ CIPS UK Construction PMI (Jan. 25) The headline CIPS construction PMI dropped to 48.1 in January, from 53.3 in December, indicating the first contraction in activity since February 2024. 6th February 2025 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack UK Economics Chart Pack (Feb. 2025) Despite the recent weak news on activity and the uncertainty around the global outlook due to Trump’s US import tariffs, the stronger news on domestic price pressures means the Bank of England will... 5th February 2025 · 1 min read
US Commercial Property Update COVID five years on: How the pandemic continues to shape real estate markets Five years on from the start of the pandemic and the structural shifts it brought about continue to underpin real estate performance. Over the coming weeks, we will publish a series of pieces that... 5th February 2025 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Interest Rate Announcement (Feb.) The National Bank of Poland left its policy rate on hold again today, at 5.75%, and we think that interest rates will remain on hold throughout 2025. That’s a more hawkish forecast than the consensus... 5th February 2025 · 2 mins read
Global Markets Update Turkish assets may keep doing well despite global challenges Notwithstanding negative FX returns and a challenging external backdrop brought about by Donald Trump’s agenda, we think Turkish bonds and equities will continue to perform relatively well in 2025, as... 5th February 2025 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Is this the start of a major central bank divergence? We held an online Drop-In session last week to discuss the outlook for interest rates in major advanced economies as the Fed hit the pause button while the ECB cut again. (See a recording here .) The... 4th February 2025 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Focus German economy post-election: from bad to not much better We expect Germany’s next government to reform the national fiscal rule to allow some tax cuts and increased public investment. But it is likely to make slow progress on structural reforms such as... 4th February 2025 · 22 mins read
UK Housing Market Outlook UK Housing Outlook: Housing to shrug off the weak economy Our forecast that mortgage rates will fall further than widely expected suggests that a decent recovery in transactions will allow house prices to rise by around 3.5% this year and by 4.5% next year... 4th February 2025 · 17 mins read
Europe Economics Update Four quick points on Europe and the "trade war" This weekend’s US trade policy announcements and Trump’s threats to impose tariffs on Europe raise the question of whether there is a bigger risk to the euro-zone than we had thought. This Update... 3rd February 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone HICP (January 2025) January’s inflation data won’t change ECB policymakers’ minds about the likely near-term path for interest rates. The fact that services inflation remained high will mean that they will prefer to... 3rd February 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Emerging Europe Manufacturing PMIs (Jan.) The manufacturing PMIs in Central Europe rose slightly last month, but the big picture is that they remained at weak levels. And the threat of US tariffs on the EU poses an additional headwind for the... 3rd February 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Jan. 2025) The sharp jump in the m/m rate of Turkish inflation, to 5.0%, was largely driven by one-off factors. And so long as the February CPI figures come in much softer (as we expect), we still think it’s... 3rd February 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Credit Conditions Survey (Q1 2024) Demand for mortgage credit jumped in Q1 in response to the drop in mortgage rates over the second half of 2023. But a rise in financial market interest rates this week, due to higher-than-expected... 1st February 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Focus How far will the EU go on Capital Markets Union? EU policymakers have stepped up their calls for progress towards Capital Markets Union and there will be steps in that direction in the coming years. But we aren’t holding our breath for major change... 31st January 2025 · 14 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Emerging Europe Weekly: Putin’s response to Trump, CEE GDP, Turkish inflation Comments from President Putin in an interview this week add to signs that efforts to reach a peace deal in Ukraine will be challenging. Elsewhere, the Q4 figures out of Central Europe point to a... 31st January 2025 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Europe Weekly: Weak growth, signs inflation easing, estimating r* A deluge of data this week has underlined how weak economic activity is in the euro-zone but offers some hope that core inflation may be easing. Meanwhile, we do not expect the ECB’s new analysis of... 31st January 2025 · 9 mins read
