Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Dovish pivots, Turkey’s strains While most central banks are weighing whether to hike or hold, currency appreciation allowed the Bank of Israel to cut interest rates this week and the National Bank of Hungary to open the door to... 29th May 2026 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Flash CPI (May 2026) The fall in Polish inflation to 3.1% y/y in May – when most had expected a rise above 3.5% - suggests that underlying price pressures are softer than we had thought. In the last couple of weeks, it... 29th May 2026 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CEE weathering the energy shock for now The latest surveys for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) for May point to resilience in the face of the energy shock caused by the Iran war, with overall economic sentiment holding up well across... 28th May 2026 · 2 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update RE:UK Consensus Forecasts (May 26) The May RE:UK consensus forecasts showed that higher risk-free rates due to the Iran war are expected to hit commercial property capital values in 2026, and all-property total returns for the year... 28th May 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack UK Housing Market Chart Pack (May 2026) While some leading indicators point to a sharp slowdown in house price inflation in the coming months, the smaller rise in mortgage rates since the start of the Iran war than in past shocks and the... 28th May 2026 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: energy windfall masks deeper economic issues Russia is one of the main beneficiaries of the energy shock and we expect a smaller budget deficit, a larger current account surplus and a stronger ruble than we forecast before the Iran war started... 28th May 2026 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update Italy growing slowly but jobs market will remain tight Italy’s unemployment rate has fallen to its lowest level since the mid-1970s, but recent declines have been driven by young people leaving the labour force rather than rising employment. Even if the... 28th May 2026 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Valuation Monitor Europe Commercial Property Valuation Monitor (Q2 2026) Commercial property valuations worsened in Q1 as the Iran war pushed alternative asset yields higher. Looking ahead, valuations could worsen further and property yields could come under upward... 28th May 2026 · 0 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone EC Survey (May) Although the EC Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) rose slightly in May and selling price expectations fell back a touch, the big picture is unchanged: the euro-zone has suffered a significant... 28th May 2026 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (May 2026) Capital outflows from EMs have generally eased over the past month. Further progress in talks between the US and Iran to re-open the Strait of Hormuz would help outflows to decline further. But even... 26th May 2026 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Update How will the UK government raise defence spending? An increase in defence spending could represent a significant source of extra demand in the UK. But the UK’s weak fiscal position suggests higher defence spending will need to be mostly funded by tax... 26th May 2026 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Hungary Interest Rate Announcement (May 2026) Hungary’s central bank (MNB) kept the base rate at 6.25% today, but weak price pressures and the rally in the forint suggest that the door has opened to easing, with a 25bp cut a possibility at the... 26th May 2026 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Israel Interest Rate Announcement (May 2026) The Bank of Israel (BoI) restarted its easing cycle at today’s meeting, reducing its policy rate by 25bp, to 3.75%, and we think another cut of the same size is likely in July too. 25th May 2026 · 2 mins read
UK Commercial Property Chart Pack UK Commercial Property Chart Pack (May 26) The risks to the commercial property market from the Iran war are increasing, and the longer risk-free interest rates remain elevated the more likely that will feed through to higher property yields... 22nd May 2026 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Labour market too weak to generate big second-round effects We have been saying for some time that the current economic backdrop is much less conducive to a long-lasting bout of inflation than it was in 2022. This week’s news only adds to that feeling. As a... 22nd May 2026 · 4 mins read
Commodities Weekly “Waiving” goodbye to Russian sanctions? The US sanctions waiver permitting purchases of Russian oil has helped, at the margin, cushion the impact of lost supply from the Middle East so far. Looking ahead, given that European natural gas... 22nd May 2026 · 4 mins read
