Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Emerging Markets Chart Pack (November 2024) EM GDP growth ticked up in Q3 but is likely to fall short of expectations over the coming quarters as stimulus in China disappoints and still-tight monetary policy takes it toll. For most EMs, a... 27th November 2024 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus The slow agony of Germany’s auto industry One of the many problems that the next German government will have to contend with is the struggling car sector. Unfortunately, the sector’s challenges are only likely to intensify given the prospect... 27th November 2024 · 29 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update The implications of the Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire The economic impact of the Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire hinges on whether the deal holds and whether it sets the stage for a broader de-escalation of the regional conflict. If it does, that would allow... 27th November 2024 · 6 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Are there enough workers to build 300,000 homes a year? Even if the government’s easing of planning rules were to mean that at least 300,000 new home approvals in England were granted a year, the number of construction workers would need to rise... 26th November 2024 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Activity Data (Oct.) The stronger-than-expected Polish activity data for October suggest that the contraction in the economy in Q3 wasn’t the start of a renewed trend. With fiscal policy set to remain loose over the... 26th November 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Israel Interest Rate Announcement (Nov.) 25th November 2024 · 2 mins read
Event Global Drop-In: US tariffs – How they’ll work, what they’ll do and how the world will respond 1732631400 Donald Trump’s latest threat to impose massive tariffs on China, Mexico and Canada are a reminder that this is a very real threat to the global economic outlook.
Europe Commercial Property Valuation Monitor Europe Commercial Property Valuation Monitor (Q4 2024) Commercial property valuations improved in all sectors in Q3 as bond yields fell, with offices and retail moving into fair value territory. However, the rise in government bond yields so far in Q4... 25th November 2024 · 0 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Romania Presidential Election (First Round) The surprise lead for an independent far-right candidate, Călin Georgescu, in the first round of Romania’s presidential election raises the risk of an abrupt shift towards more populist policymaking... 25th November 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Germany Ifo Survey (November 2024) The fall in the Ifo Business Climate Index (BCI) in November left it even deeper into recessionary territory and is consistent with our view that the German economy will continue to struggle in the... 25th November 2024 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Investors’ focus shifting from EZ inflation to growth November’s weaker-than-expected Flash PMIs for the euro-zone prompted investors to lower their policy rate expectations. Even so, we still expect more easing than implied in money markets, so we think... 22nd November 2024 · 4 mins read
UK Commercial Property Outlook Budget measures to weaken property recovery The fiscal loosening announced in October’s Budget means inflation and gilt yields are now set to be higher than previously expected over the next few years. And with the spread of gilt yields over... 22nd November 2024 · 26 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Will weak activity prompt the BoE to cut rates faster? While the rebound in CPI inflation in October strengthens the case for caution at the Bank of England, the worrying news on activity recently may mean some Monetary Policy Committee members reconsider... 22nd November 2024 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Revised bond yield forecasts, Trump and the SNB Our new bond yield forecasts show US and German bond yields diverging slightly over the coming year as monetary policy is loosened more aggressively in Europe. Meanwhile, we think a universal US... 22nd November 2024 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russia-Ukraine escalation, CBRT rate cut approaching? Tensions between Russia and Ukraine escalated this week, with Ukraine using Western-provided long-range weapons on Russian territory and Russia launching an “experimental” ballistic missile against... 22nd November 2024 · 8 mins read
