Europe Economics Update Lagarde prepares the ground for rate hikes While today’s decision to leave the ECB deposit rate at 2.0% was expected, President Lagarde used the press conference to signal that interest rates will rise. Unless there is a big drop-back in... 30th April 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update BoE on hold for now, but rate hike risks are rising The Bank of England’s further hawkish tilt while leaving interest rates unchanged at 3.75% suggests the chances of near-term rate hikes are rising. If oil prices fall back to about $95pb as in our... 30th April 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response ECB Policy Announcement (April 2026) While the ECB’s decision to leave its deposit rate unchanged at 2.0% today was expected and the monetary policy statement gives little away, the chances of rate hikes later this year appear to be... 30th April 2026 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response Bank of England Policy Announcement (30th Apr. 2026) The Bank of England’s hawkish tilt around its decision to leave rates unchanged at 3.75% suggests the chances of near-term rate hikes are rising. If oil prices fall back to around $95pb as we expect... 30th April 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone GDP (Q1 2026) & HICP (April 2026) The euro-zone economy lost a little pace even before the Iran war began , and the business surveys point to stagnation at the start of Q2. Meanwhile, the pick-up in inflation in April reflected higher... 30th April 2026 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response National GDP (Q1 2026) National data released so far suggest that GDP growth in the euro-zone probably slowed to 0.1% q/q (data due at 10.00am BST). Excluding Ireland, GDP is likely to have risen by 0.2%, which is a... 30th April 2026 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Czech & Hungary GDP (Q1 2026) The much better-than-expected Hungarian Q1 GDP figure, and the rise in sentiment indicators this month, will give the incoming Tisza government more optimism that it may be able to achieve its... 30th April 2026 · 2 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Multifamily build-to-rent supply to recover from 2028 High financing and construction costs, combined with significant delays from the Building Safety Act, meant multifamily build-to-rent completions saw a 28% y/y decline in 2025. A thin pipeline... 29th April 2026 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Update Upside risks to our forecast for household bank deposits to ease Given the fall in households’ real incomes will mean households have less cash to save, we expect the monthly flow into bank deposits to ease in our baseline scenario. But if we are wrong, it is... 29th April 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone EC Survey & German State CPI (April 2026) April’s EC survey suggests the Iran war may hit euro-zone activity a bit harder than we are forecasting. Services firms’ selling price expectations rose further but not enough for the ECB to take... 29th April 2026 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Update One-year rent freeze could lead to higher rents further ahead While a one-year rent freeze would temporarily suppress rents for households currently in rental contracts, a further squeeze of landlords’ possible returns risks exacerbating the already tight supply... 28th April 2026 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Apr. 2026) Our measure of EM capital flows suggests that outflows eased over the course of this month, helped by the US-Iran ceasefire announcement. Perhaps more importantly, EM external balance sheets look... 28th April 2026 · 0 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Hungary Interest Rate Announcement (Apr. 2026) Hungary’s central bank (MNB) left its base rate unchanged at 6.25% today and, despite the rally in markets after the Tisza election victory and below-target inflation, we think renewed interest rate... 28th April 2026 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB Bank Lending & Consumer Expectations Surveys The ECB’s Q1 Bank Lending Survey (BLS) suggests that the negative effects of higher energy prices on economic activity in the euro-zone could be bigger than we have assumed. At the same time, the jump... 28th April 2026 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Election signals reset opportunity for Hungary’s real estate Hungary’s decisive election result has improved investor sentiment and medium-term economic prospects. While it is still early days, we think it will bring positive spillovers to real estate, with... 28th April 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update How far will the Iran war push up UK homebuilding costs? A renewed rise in homebuilding construction costs due to the jump in energy prices since the start of the Iran war will only further constrain homebuilders’ profits and housing starts. This poses some... 27th April 2026 · 5 mins read
