UK Economics Rapid Response UK Public Finances & Retail Sales (Oct. 2025) The last major economic releases before the Budget next Wednesday paint a pretty grim picture with the government borrowing more than expected in October and retail sales falling sharply at the start... 21st November 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Focus Has France’s RN turned moderate? As it has dropped plans for “Frexit”, scaled back its tax and spending promises and made overtures to business, the RN is worrying investors less than it did in the past. However, it is no more likely... 20th November 2025 · 16 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Thinking through a potential end to the war in Ukraine Media reports suggest that the US and Russia are drafting a peace plan to end the war in Ukraine, seemingly on terms favourable to Russia. Were this to materialise, a lack of sufficient security... 20th November 2025 · 6 mins read
Event Global Drop-In: Central bank December decisions and the 2026 policy outlook 18th December 2025, 3:00PM GMT The Bank of England and European Central Bank’s final decisions of 2025 follow a week after the Fed’s and close a year in which all three have been trying with mixed success to steer
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Nov. 2025) Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The Q3 GDP data out of Emerging Europe confirmed a growing divergence in the region, with... 19th November 2025 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus What to make of euro-zone inflation differentials Next year, inflation is likely to remain higher in Spain and Germany than in Italy and France. But unlike in the 2000s, inflation differentials are not currently a sign that unsustainable imbalances... 19th November 2025 · 9 mins read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack UK Housing Market Chart Pack (Nov. 2025) While the recent pace of transactions and house price growth is unlikely to be sustained over the coming months, we doubt it will slow by as much as some sentiment indicators suggest. But by crimping... 19th November 2025 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone inflation to fall below 2% soon Euro-zone inflation has hovered close to or above the 2% target for over a year, but we think it will fall to about 1.5% in January and average just 1.3% in 2026. 19th November 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Valuation Monitor Europe Commercial Property Valuation Monitor (Q4 2025) Commercial property valuations held steady in Q3, supported by lower equity dividend yields despite higher government bond yields. Looking ahead, there is limited scope for falls in government bond... 19th November 2025 · 0 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Consumer Prices (Oct. 2025) The fall in CPI inflation from 3.8% in September to 3.6% in October (CE, consensus and BoE forecasts all 3.6%) is the second softish inflation release in a row and could well prompt the Governor of... 19th November 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update North-south divide emerges in Europe AI usage It is still early days in the roll-out of AI but the data available at this stage suggest that there is a big variation in its usage between European economies. Firms in the Nordics and Benelux are... 18th November 2025 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Hungary Interest Rate Announcement (Nov.) The Hungarian central bank left its base rate on hold, at 6.50% as expected today, and with pre-election fiscal loosening on the cards, the monetary easing cycle looks like it may stay paused for... 18th November 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Key client questions from our commercial property in 2026 roundtables Recently we held a series of roundtable discussions with clients in our London office about the outlook for commercial real estate in 2026 and beyond. This note shares our answers to some of the most... 18th November 2025 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Update US-Swiss deal to help reverse GDP contraction Assuming it is implemented soon, the deal to lower US tariffs on Switzerland from 39% to 15% would leave Swiss exporters paying the lowest US average tariff rate of any major economy, at around 7%... 17th November 2025 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Early current account warning signs in a few EMs Emerging economies’ external positions generally look strong. But current account deficits are starting to widen in a handful of countries in Latin America as well as in the Philippines and Poland... 17th November 2025 · 3 mins read
