Commodities Focus

Europe waiting for LNG to flow

The price of natural gas in Europe was thrust into the spotlight during Europe’s energy crisis and remains a key political and industrial pressure point. In short, we expect natural gas prices in the...

10th December 2024 · 12 mins read

UK Economics Update

Tracking the MPC’s thinking with our Bank of England Caseometer

Our new Bank of England Caseometer helps track whether the Bank is becoming more inclined to cut interest rates faster and further or slower and not as far. Our forecast is that rates will continue to...

10th December 2024 · 4 mins read

UK Economic Outlook

Overseas slowdown won’t derail UK economy

Despite the deterioration in the global outlook, we remain optimistic that UK GDP growth will just about beat the consensus forecast over the next couple of years, as lower inflation and bigger falls...

10th December 2024 · 18 mins read

UK Commercial Property Update

What’s keeping real estate investors awake at night?

A vast share of our clients highlighted geopolitics and/or Trump as their biggest blind spots going into 2025 when polled at our recent London roundtables. Meanwhile, a large majority thought that...

9th December 2024 · 3 mins read

It’s not just France. Europe faces ongoing decline without fundamental reform at its core.

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Romania election drama, rate cuts delayed across EE

The decision by Romania’s constitutional court to annul the first round of the presidential election today after suggestions of Russian interference has been followed by a positive reaction in Romania...

6th December 2024 · 5 mins read

Europe Chart Pack

Europe Chart Pack (Dec. 2024)

GDP growth picked up in Q3 but timelier data suggest that it has slowed in Q4. We expect growth to remain sluggish next year regardless of whether President Trump raises tariffs on imports from Europe...

6th December 2024 · 1 min read

Europe Economics Weekly

French budget deadlock to continue

Following the collapse of Michel Barnier’s administration, there is no realistic prospect of a stable government being formed that could address France’s fiscal problems. There is a risk that the...

6th December 2024 · 6 mins read

UK Economics Weekly

Mission impossible to mission plausible

By shifting its target from achieving the highest sustained growth rate in the G7 to delivering “higher living standards”, the government has gone from what looks like mission impossible to mission...

6th December 2024 · 7 mins read

Europe Economics Update

Euro-zone growth outlook remains poor

Data released today show that euro-zone household consumption rose strongly in Q3. But slowing real income growth means that we expect spending growth to be subdued in the coming quarters. Meanwhile...

6th December 2024 · 4 mins read

UK Housing Market Rapid Response

UK Halifax House Prices (Nov. 2024)

The leap in Halifax house prices in November mirrors the jump in the Nationwide measure and suggests that some relief rally or release of pent-up demand after the Budget has more than offset the...

6th December 2024 · 3 mins read

Europe Economics Update

SNB to cut by 25bp and state further cuts to come

In contrast to market pricing, we think that the SNB will be cautious and cut its policy rate by just 25bps, to 0.75%, next week as the Bank sticks to a gradual approach to loosening monetary policy...

5th December 2024 · 5 mins read

ECB Watch

“Dovish” 25bp rate cut likely next week

While there is a strong case for the ECB to accelerate the pace of policy easing by delivering a 50bp cut next week, a majority of the Governing Council seems to prefer 25bp, which would bring the...

5th December 2024 · 8 mins read

Europe Rapid Response

Euro-zone Retail Sales (October 2024)

October’s decline in euro-zone retail sales followed a good third quarter for retailers. We suspect that the strength in sales in Q3 was just a one off and that growth will be subdued in the coming...

5th December 2024 · 1 min read

UK Commercial Property Rapid Response

S&P Global/ CIPS Construction PMI (Nov. 24)

The headline CIPS construction PMI increased to 55.2 in November, from 54.3 in October, indicating an expansion of construction activity.

5th December 2024 · 1 min read