UK Commercial Property Update Household savings to support UK spending and retail rents Real household disposable income growth is now slowing, but we still expect household consumption will accelerate to around 1.8% y/y on average over 2025-27 as households start to run down the savings... 2nd July 2025 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Interest Rate Announcement (July) The decision by the National Bank of Poland (NBP) to cut its policy rate by 25bp today, to 5.00%, was a dovish surprise to most analysts (although not ourselves). With inflation likely to fall back... 2nd July 2025 · 2 mins read
Global Commercial Property Chart Pack Global Commercial Property Chartpack (Q2 2025) The gradual recovery in property values underway in Europe is unlikely to be pushed off track by tariff developments this year, but we think values still have further to fall in the US and APAC as... 2nd July 2025 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update A challenging H2 ahead for EM manufacturing The EM manufacturing PMI recovered in June, led by China, which regained some momentum, and India, which continued to outperform. That said, the surveys remained at subdued levels in most EMs. And the... 1st July 2025 · 3 mins read
Climate Economics Update The changing face of the global tourism market Somewhat paradoxically, climate-driven shifts in tourist patterns could help to smooth the seasonal peaks seen in summer destinations, and some countries – particularly in northern Europe – will... 1st July 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone flash HICP (June) The small increase in headline inflation in the euro-zone in June will not change the debate among ECB policymakers about whether there should be one more interest rate cut in the current cycle. This... 1st July 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Emerging Europe Manufacturing PMIs (June) The weak batch of June manufacturing PMIs out of Emerging Europe – and in particular some of the forward-looking components of the surveys – paint a downbeat view for industrial activity across the... 1st July 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Rapid Response UK Nationwide House Prices (Jun. 2025) The large fall in the Nationwide measure of house prices in June shows that the housing market is still struggling to recover from the combination of the stamp duty induced lull and the subdued... 1st July 2025 · 3 mins read
Global Economic Outlook Global Economic Outlook: Global economy to weather geopolitical headwinds We expect global GDP growth to slow a touch in the next couple of years, as President Trump’s policies weigh on US activity and fiscal policy provides less of a prop to growth in China. India will be... 30th June 2025 · 45 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Jun. 2025) Capital inflows into EMs held up well in June despite the escalation of conflict in the Middle East. Were higher US tariffs to come into force after President Trump’s 90-day reciprocal tariff reprieve... 30th June 2025 · 1 min read
Europe Rapid Response Germany, France, Italy & Spain Flash HICP (June) National data published so far suggest that both euro-zone headline and core inflation were little changed and close to 2% in June. That will please ECB officials, who we expect to cut rates one more... 30th June 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Commercial Property Rapid Response Lending to commercial property (May 25) Net lending to property had another strong month in May, with the total of £2.15bn the largest amount in five years. 30th June 2025 · 1 min read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Money & Lending (May 2025) Today’s money and lending data release supports wider evidence that activity was relatively soft in May. But with consumer confidence improving and real wages rising at a healthy clip, we still think... 30th June 2025 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Flash CPI (Jun.) The small rise in Polish inflation, to 4.1% y/y, in June is likely to be followed by a fall back within the central bank’s target range over the second half of this year. We think this will give the... 30th June 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK GDP (Q1 2025 Final) GDP growth was unrevised at 0.7% q/q in Q1, but we already know this strength has started to unwind. The underlying picture is still that there is very little momentum in the economy. 30th June 2025 · 3 mins read
