UK Economics Weekly The lasting legacy of Trump’s temporary tariff threat Although it took just four days for President Trump's Greenland tariff threat to be withdrawn, the longer lasting impacts on the UK economy could be an accelerated plan to boost defence spending and a... 23rd January 2026 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Orbán’s playbook, Greenland saga, Bulgarian election Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán is returning to the familiar playbook of loosening fiscal policy ahead of the election in April. Any signs that a widening in the budget deficit will be sustained... 23rd January 2026 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK S&P Global Flash PMIs (Jan. 2026) January’s flash PMIs suggest that economic activity picked up at the start of Q1 and that inflationary pressures increased slightly. This reinforces our view that the Bank of England will keep... 23rd January 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone PMIs (January 2026) While the new year has begun with a lot of geopolitical turbulence, the flash PMIs for January suggest that the euro-zone economy is still expanding at a moderate pace while price pressures rose a... 23rd January 2026 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Retail Sales (Dec. 2025) December’s unexpected rise in retail sales volumes wasn’t enough to prevent yet another disappointing “Golden Quarter” for the retail sector, with sales declining by 0.3% q/q in Q4 overall. And while... 23rd January 2026 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Jan. 2026) So far at least, there’s little sign that the geopolitical flare-ups this year have affected capital inflows to emerging markets. Indeed, inflows have picked up sharply in the last few weeks. Even if... 22nd January 2026 · 0 mins read
Commodities Update Trump’s threats strain US-Europe energy relationship Strains in US-Europe relations under President Trump mean that European policymakers may perceive the region’s growing dependence on the US for energy to be a strategic vulnerability. This is not as... 22nd January 2026 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update A quiet meeting next week for the Riksbank There is no doubt that the Riksbank will keep its policy rate at 1.75% next week and continue to signal it will not adjust its policy for many months. We think that policymakers will only start to... 22nd January 2026 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Interest Rate Announcement (Jan. 2026) The Turkish central bank unexpectedly slowed the pace of its easing cycle today with a 100bp cut, to 37.00%. We think this was a response to a likely temporary rise in inflation this month and we are... 22nd January 2026 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Norges Bank Policy Announcement (January 2026) Today’s decision to leave the policy rate at 4.0% came as no surprise and the Bank’s messaging repeated that policymakers are in no hurry to lower rates further. We are forecasting a cut in June, but... 22nd January 2026 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Public Finances (Dec. 2025) The public finances are finally showing signs of improvement in recent months. But the pace of deficit reduction remains very slow and Starmer/Reeves’ political vulnerability casts doubt over whether... 22nd January 2026 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily No Greenland news is good news for markets US-Europe tensions over Greenland, and renewed US policy uncertainty more broadly, has led to speculation of a return of the “sell America” narrative that dominated financial markets in the first half... 21st January 2026 · 5 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Fundamentals support Dublin industrial revival The fortunes of Dublin’s logistics markets are improving after a post-pandemic hangover. Sentiment is currently strong, while a solid economic outlook and tight supply provide reasons to be optimistic... 21st January 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Germany: AfD to keep shaping policy from the sidelines The Alternative für Deutschland’s continued rise in the polls has been accompanied by renewed calls for mainstream German parties to abandon their “firewall” policy. But as long as the AfD clings on... 21st January 2026 · 4 mins read
Event Global Drop-In: Fed, ECB, and BoE update – The latest decisions and the 2026 policy outlook 5th February 2026, 3:00PM GMT What will a Fed under political fire signal at its first policy meeting of 2026?
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Consumer Prices (Dec. 2025) The rebound in CPI inflation from 3.2% in November to 3.4% in December makes it unlikely the Bank of England will cut interest rates from 3.75% on 5th February. But we still think that a fall in... 21st January 2026 · 3 mins read
