UK Economics Update What could policymakers do in response to higher gilt yields? Our base case is that a stabilisation and eventual fall back in gilt yields will allow the government to muddle through and wait until the next fiscal event on 26th March before making any decisions... 14th January 2025 · 5 mins read
Commodities Update Sanctions boost oil prices, but impact will fade away The recent ramp-up in US sanctions on Russia’s oil supply chain has tightened the global oil market and may keep prices higher in the near term. But we still expect greater OPEC+ supply and weak... 14th January 2025 · 3 mins read
Event Drop-In: UK Commercial Property in 2025 – Do higher gilt yields augur ill? 1737644400 UK commercial property finally turned a corner in 2024 after a few painful years.
UK Economics Chart Pack UK Economics Chart Pack (Jan. 2025) While the economy lost all momentum at the end of last year, we still expect GDP growth to accelerate from 0.8% in 2024 to an above-consensus 1.3% in 2025. Admittedly, activity could be restrained if... 13th January 2025 · 1 min read
Climate Economics Update A nuanced take on renewable rollout outperformance On the face of it, the fact that the world is installing more renewable electricity generating capacity than seemed likely just a few years ago is encouraging for the green transition. That said, one... 13th January 2025 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update CDU Agenda 2030 won’t turn Germany around The CDU’s economic policy agenda, released today, clearly recognises the scale of Germany’s economic challenges and proposes some sensible policies to address them. But some of the measures are not... 10th January 2025 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Gilt market is not in crisis, but it does cause problems This week’s leap in gilt yields creates more problems for the Chancellor and is an extra headwind for the economy. But it is not a crisis and the cause mostly originates overseas rather than being... 10th January 2025 · 9 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Trump’s plan to end the war – is the timeline shifting? Expectations for an imminent end to Russia’s war in Ukraine once Trump takes office as US President on 20th January took a knock this week, following an FT report and statements by officials... 10th January 2025 · 9 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (Jan. 2025) We expect the euro-zone economy to grow at only a sluggish pace this year, with southern economies outperforming the core. Germany’s election will lead to only a modest loosening of its restrictive... 10th January 2025 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Cyclical oil market drivers in the ascendancy, for now The recent rise in oil prices – to a three-month high just shy of $80pb – can be partly attributed to the apparent pick-up in activity in China at the end of 2024, which is likely to continue to... 10th January 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB to keep cutting; bond vigilantes returning? The continued strength of services inflation means ECB policymakers will feel in no hurry to slash interest rates, but we still think the deposit rate will fall from 3.0% currently to 1.5% in Q3... 10th January 2025 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Update Gilt market and fiscal policy: your questions answered With long-dated gilt yields hitting multi-decade highs, we held an online Drop-In session on Wednesday to discuss the outlook for the gilt market and the implications for government policy and the UK... 9th January 2025 · 9 mins read
Commodities Update Assessing the risks to energy prices While upside risks to energy prices have garnered plenty of attention in recent months, there are several downside risks that are worth noting. Although we would characterise the downside risks –... 9th January 2025 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily A global bond market storm in a British teacup UK Gilts have not only been embroiled in a global government bond sell-off, but they have fared worse than others. However, we think that bonds will recover before long, with yields in the UK falling... 9th January 2025 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Update What taxes could the Chancellor raise to save her fiscal rule? We originally published an Update ahead of the general election on 4th July on what taxes the next government could raise. In light of the recent rise in gilt yields putting the Chancellor on course... 9th January 2025 · 5 mins read
