UK Economics Update Get ready for a big fall in UK inflation to 2.0% We think April’s inflation data (released on 20th May) will reveal that, after spending almost five years above target, CPI inflation has finally fallen to 2.0%. This would be below the consensus... 12th January 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (January 2026) We expect euro-zone GDP to increase at a moderate pace this year and next. Germany’s fiscal stimulus is likely to be smaller, slower and less effective than many expect, while growth will be stronger... 12th January 2026 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Ukraine’s security, Venezuela spillovers, CPI data The US and Europe appeared to move closer to an agreement on providing security guarantees to post-war Ukraine this week, but Russia is unlikely to be on board with the terms of the proposed... 9th January 2026 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Public sector pay not an obstacle to further BoE rate cuts We expect the striking gap between public and private sector pay growth in October to narrow in the coming months. But even if political pressure on the government means public sector pay growth is... 9th January 2026 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly On EU relations with the Western Hemisphere We suspect that European governments will prioritise their relationship with the US over concerns about Greenland’s sovereignty, not least because they are more focused on Nato and Ukraine. Meanwhile... 9th January 2026 · 5 mins read
Commodities Weekly Greenland’s mineral potential; metal price mayhem Despite Greenland’s undoubted resource potential, the significant technical challenges and high costs associated operating on the island will surely limit the potential for sizeable production... 9th January 2026 · 4 mins read
Europe Rapid Response German Industrial Production (November) The rise in output in November confirmed that conditions in German industry improved towards the end of last year. But given the significant structural headwinds facing the sector, we doubt this is... 9th January 2026 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update 5 key questions on the “shadow fleet” The seizure of the Marinera oil tanker by the US has put the “shadow fleet” under the spotlight, with some estimates suggesting it now accounts for ~20% of global tanker capacity. While a concerted... 8th January 2026 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response CEE Economic Sentiment Indicators (Dec. 2025) The European Commission’s Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) suggest that regional GDP growth held steady at around 2.5% y/y in December, and we think that growth will... 8th January 2026 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response EC Economic Survey (Dec.) and Unemployment (Nov.) The EC business and consumer survey for December suggests that the euro-zone economy continued to expand at a moderate pace at the end of last year and shows that price pressures remain quite high. We... 8th January 2026 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack UK Economics Chart Pack (Jan. 2026) Soft overseas demand, the past rises in interest rates and higher taxes mean that GDP will grow by only 1.0% in 2026. The weakening in the labour market last year should continue to bear down on wage... 8th January 2026 · 1 min read
Europe Rapid Response Swiss CPI (December) Swiss inflation edged up in December but remained close to zero and we think it will remain around that level this year. While the SNB left its policy rate at zero in December, we think policymakers... 8th January 2026 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Rapid Response UK Halifax House Prices (Dec. 2025) The 0.6% m/m fall in the Halifax measure of house prices in December was the biggest monthly fall since August 2023, chimes with the 0.4% m/m fall in the Nationwide release last week and confirms that... 8th January 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Four ways the UK consensus may be wrong in 2026 We think investors will be surprised by how far inflation, interest rates and gilt yields fall this year. That said, these forecasts could be knocked off course should fiscal policy not be tightened... 7th January 2026 · 4 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Our key calls for 2026 The recovery in European commercial property values is set to slow this year given the soft economic growth backdrop and elevated interest rates. Our forecast for euro-zone all-property total returns... 7th January 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone HICP (December 2025) December’s small fall in headline inflation to 2.0%, and the likelihood that it will drop further in January, won’t alter ECB policymakers’ thinking. But if we’re right that headline and core... 7th January 2026 · 2 mins read
