Global Commercial Property Chart Pack Global Commercial Property Chartpack (Q4 2024) 2024 likely marked the bottom in all-property values in Europe, but we expect further falls in the US in 2025. That said, US performance should improve further ahead, outpacing the euro-zone over the... 9th January 2025 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Troubling start to 2025 casts doubt over our key 2025 forecasts The troubling start to 2025 is casting doubt over our key non-consensus forecasts for 2025. But we still think other forecasters are underestimating how fast the economy will grow, how far inflation... 9th January 2025 · 6 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Nov. 24) The 0.1% m/m increase in euro-zone retail sales in November was a little worse than expected and follows a fall in sales of 0.3% in October. This suggests that aggregate retail sales may have declined... 9th January 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Will the “periphery” continue to outperform? The outperformance of the peripheral economies since early 2022 is likely to continue over the next year, supported by high immigration, tourism growth and Next Generation EU funding. That said... 9th January 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Germany Industrial Production (Nov.) German industrial production picked up in November. But the level of output was still very low by past standards and with industry facing several structural headwinds we expect the sector to continue... 9th January 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Our key calls for 2025 Against a backdrop of lower interest rates and weak economic growth in much of Europe, we think the recovery in property values will continue at a gradual pace in 2025. Our forecast for euro-zone... 8th January 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Property returns to see another modest year Compared to our end-2023 forecasts, property yields look set to end 2024 a bit higher than we anticipated and rental growth stronger. Overall, that means our call for all-property total returns of... 8th January 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response EC Survey (December 2024) The EC survey is broadly consistent with euro-zone GDP stagnating in Q4. It also suggests that inflationary pressures remain sticky. 8th January 2025 · 2 mins read
Event UK Drop-In: Could the gilt market upend Rachel Reeves’ fiscal plans? 1736348400 Rachel Reeves’ room for manoeuvre is rapidly shrinking as long-end gilt yields rise.
Europe Rapid Response Sweden CPI (December) The fall in inflation in December will ease policymakers’ concerns about upside risks to inflation. We had previously been expecting them to wait until March before cutting the policy rate for a last... 8th January 2025 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus Trump and the implications for global fracturing Donald Trump’s second term could redraw the global geopolitical map. A sustainable “Grand Bargain” with China, warmer relations with Russia, or a breakdown in the relationship between the US and its... 7th January 2025 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: disinflation now gathering pace The latest inflation figures out of Turkey have given us more encouragement that the disinflation process is underway and that the central bank could lower interest rates towards 30% by year-end. Even... 7th January 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Update Chancellor within a whisker of breaking her fiscal rule There is a significant chance that the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) will judge that the Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, is on course to miss her main fiscal rule when it revises its forecasts on... 7th January 2025 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM sovereign debt risks: not just a Brazil problem Brazil’s public finances have been in the headlines for all the wrong reasons over the past month. But while an extreme case, the combination of a large budget deficit and limited political will to... 7th January 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Reviewing our key calls for 2024 The end of the downturn in the European property market came in 2024 as forecast, though the euro-zone performed better than we had expected. That primarily reflected the strength of the prime office... 7th January 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Rapid Response S&P Global/ CIPS Construction PMI (Dec. 24) The headline CIPS construction PMI eased to a six-month low of 53.3 in December, from 55.2 in November, although that indicates construction activity is still expanding. The decline in the headline... 7th January 2025 · 1 min read
