UK Housing Market Update UK RICS Residential Market Survey (Jan. 2026) The green shoots of recovery indicated by January’s RICS housing market survey support other evidence that suggests the economy strengthened at the start of the year. And it lends some tentative... 12th February 2026 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update What the “Starmer drama” means for Gilts and Sterling Keir Starmer appears to have fended off the latest challenge to his leadership, but his premiership hangs by a thread. This Update examines what previous political episodes can tell us about what his... 11th February 2026 · 5 mins read
UK Commercial Property Valuation Monitor UK Commercial Property Valuation Monitor (Q1 26) Property valuations saw a further small improvement in Q4 as alternative asset yields edged back. Looking ahead, steady property yields and a further decline in the 10-year gilt yield will help nudge... 11th February 2026 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus Would a stock market crash cause a global recession? Historically, stock market declines have coincided with a wide range of economic outcomes, but in adverse cases the causality almost always runs from the economy to markets rather than the reverse... 11th February 2026 · 22 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Will Poland’s “Goldilocks” conditions last? Poland’s economy is currently exhibiting features considered characteristic of a “Goldilocks economy” – solid GDP growth, inflation close to target, as well as a current account near balance. And we... 11th February 2026 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Norway no canary in the European sovereign bond coal mine Today’s slump in government bonds in Norway isn’t likely to set the tone for the rest of Europe. 10th February 2026 · 4 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Q4 RICS survey highlights weakness in German and French markets The Q4 RICS survey pointed to a largely stable euro-zone commercial property market at the end of last year. However, there were marked differences between prime and secondary assets as well as within... 10th February 2026 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary: first thoughts on Tisza’s manifesto The manifesto published by Tisza, the Hungarian opposition party which is currently the front-runner to win the upcoming election in April, sets out ambitious plans to unlock frozen EU funds, rein in... 9th February 2026 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Consensus overcautious on Spanish consumers While the consensus expects economic growth in Spain to slow in 2026, we think that strong consumption will keep the economy growing at a similar pace to the 2.8% recorded last year. 9th February 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (Feb. 2026) We expect euro-zone GDP growth to be fairly sluggish in the coming years. Germany’s fiscal stimulus should provide only a temporary and fairly modest boost, and we don’t think it will do much to raise... 9th February 2026 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Takaichi’s triumph, UK drama, US data: what it means for markets Calm may be on the way for Japan’s markets now the election is out of the way: we don’t expect a further sell-off in JGBs and forecast a stronger yen. But renewed political turmoil in the UK might be... 9th February 2026 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Update Three scenarios for the UK economy and markets if Starmer/Reeves are replaced This note republishes our three scenarios for the economy and the financial markets should Keir Starmer and/or Rachel Reeves be replaced as Prime Minister and Chancellor. In each scenario, gilt yields... 8th February 2026 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia Annual GDP (2025) The slowdown in Russian GDP growth to 1.0% in 2025 is consistent with a slight pickup in momentum in the economy in Q4, but the big picture is that the economy is under strain due to the war... 6th February 2026 · 2 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update A strong Q4 doesn’t mean UK commercial property investment is set to boom Commercial property investment hit a record high in Q4, but we doubt that signals the start of a strong recovery. Admittedly, a fall in financing costs will give transactions something of a boost in... 6th February 2026 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Political wobbles, dovish BoE, rebound in activity won’t last The dovish surprise at this week's Bank of England meeting, including the downward revision to the Bank's GDP growth forecasts despite the recent rebound in activity, leaves us more confident in our... 6th February 2026 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Christine Lagarde’s wishful thinking on AI This week’s inflation data and ECB decision were in line with expectations. In this Weekly we take a look at Christine Lagarde’s claim that there is a significant AI-related pick-up in investment in... 6th February 2026 · 5 mins read
