Europe Commercial Property Update European office vacancy to stabilise this year A softening new supply pipeline and indications that demand is gradually improving suggest office vacancy in Europe should stabilise this year. That said, we expect that any falls will be small... 3rd March 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone HICP (February 2026) February’s jump in core inflation, together with the increases in oil and gas prices since the weekend, reduce the chance of the ECB cutting interest rates this year. But as things stand, we don’t... 3rd March 2026 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Israel’s economy amid a weakened Iran The conflict with Iran – and Iran’s retaliation – might trigger a contraction in Israeli GDP this quarter, but the experience of the 12-day war last year suggests that activity should bounce back... 2nd March 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update BoE particularly sensitive to energy price risks With actual CPI inflation and inflation expectations both still above target-consistent rates, the Bank of England is likely to be more sensitive to the upside risks to inflation caused by the recent... 2nd March 2026 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update How the Iran shock may affect the euro-zone The jump in energy prices since the weekend’s military attacks is a mild stagflationary shock for the euro-zone. If the increase is sustained, it would add around 0.3 percentage points to inflation... 2nd March 2026 · 5 mins read
UK Commercial Property Rapid Response Lending to UK commercial property (Jan. 26) Net lending secured against commercial property slowed markedly in January, reaching just £0.87bn, its lowest monthly outturn since March 2025. While that drove a fall in the three-month rolling total... 2nd March 2026 · 1 min read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Money and Lending (Jan. 2026) January’s money and lending data support other evidence that suggests the economy strengthened at the start of the year. The growing risk is that an inflationary shock from the events in the Middle... 2nd March 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Rapid Response UK Nationwide House Prices (Feb. 2026) The 0.3% m/m rise in the Nationwide measure of house prices in February suggests that the improvement in the housing market and the wider economy at the turn of the year has been sustained. The... 2nd March 2026 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey GDP (Q4 2025) Although Turkish GDP growth slowed sharply to 0.4% q/q in Q4, growth appears increasingly unbalanced, with consumer spending and imports strong, while exports fell. Taken together with the rise in oil... 2nd March 2026 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response US and Israel strike Iran The economic fallout from the attacks by the US and Israel on Iran today will depend on how long the conflict lasts, the scale of Iranian retaliation and the spillovers to the oil market. A limited... 28th February 2026 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Latest US tariffs, Germany’s recovery Following last week’s Supreme Court decision, we think policymakers on both sides of the Atlantic will aim to keep tariff rates close to the levels agreed last year. So our base case is that tariff... 27th February 2026 · 6 mins read
Europe Rapid Response EZ national inflation data (February) National inflation data released so far suggest that euro-zone headline inflation rose in February and that the core and services rate s were little changed. That is unlikely to change the ECBs... 27th February 2026 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Labour feeling Green, AI optimism, near-term jobs risks The government’s loss in this week’s by-election may raise the chances of looser fiscal policy than otherwise, higher gilt yields than otherwise and a lower pound than otherwise. Meanwhile, the risks... 27th February 2026 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Four years of war takes its toll Four years of war have made Russia’s economy look increasingly fragile. Capacity constraints are biting and vulnerabilities are growing in the banking sector. Still, the economic cost of the war... 27th February 2026 · 6 mins read
UK Commercial Property Outlook UK Commercial Property Outlook: Stable yields mean steady returns Property yields saw no movement in 2025 and we expect that stability to continue over the next few years. We think the 10-year gilt yield will see a small fall to around 4.25% by the end of 2026, but... 27th February 2026 · 26 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Feb. 2026) Our EM Capital Flows measure points to a decline in inflows in recent weeks, although some of this appears to be related to idiosyncratic factors. And in any case, EM external positions look strong by... 26th February 2026 · 0 mins read
