Capital Daily ECB in “a good place”, how about euro-zone markets? The ECB has left rates unchanged and, with inflation at target, we now suspect its monetary easing cycle is over. So bond yields are unlikely in our view to fall much, particularly at the short end... 24th July 2025 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB now likely to leave rates unchanged With the euro-zone economy holding up relatively well in the face of tariff uncertainty, inflation likely to stay close to the target and President Lagarde adopting a slightly more hawkish stance at... 24th July 2025 · 3 mins read
Global Commercial Property Update Global CRE to outperform other assets Although a forecast global real estate return of sub-6% p.a. over the next decade appears disappointing, compared to other assets it stacks up well. We expect sub-4% total returns for both global... 24th July 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Rapid Response ECB Policy Announcement (July 2025) The ECB’s decision to leave its deposit rate unchanged at 2.0% today and offer no guidance on future rate decisions was in line with expectations. While we are currently forecasting one more 25bp rate... 24th July 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Interest Rate Announcement (Jul. 2025) The decision by Turkish central bank to cut its one-week repo rate by 300bp today, to 43.00%, was a slight dovish surprise, but the accompanying communications remained hawkish and we expect the pace... 24th July 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Commercial Property Chart Pack UK Commercial Property Chart Pack (Jul. 25) Yields for the main commercial property sectors have been remarkably stable over past 18 months, and we expect that stability will continue. That means capital value growth will average under 3% p.a... 24th July 2025 · 1 min read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK S&P Global Flash PMIs (Jul. 2025) July’s flash PMIs paint a picture of the economy struggling to recover from a spring lull, a labour market that is still weakening and price pressures that are continuing to ease. This should reassure... 24th July 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (July 2025) July’s Composite PMI for the euro-zone was consistent with the economy doing little more than stagnate. But policymakers at the ECB will be encouraged by the evidence that services price pressures are... 24th July 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Reports of EU-US trade deal Media reports suggest that the EU and US are approaching an agreement which would see a baseline tariff of 15% covering most products including vehicles. If confirmed (and of course President Trump... 23rd July 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Improving CRE lending outlook unlikely to boost investment Recent surveys of real estate lenders point to a continued improvement in the European commercial real estate lending environment. However, with refinancing still dominating lending activity, this is... 23rd July 2025 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Euro-zone spreads: beyond “core” and “periphery” Government bond yields in the euro-zone are converging, and we expect the “peripheral” frontier to keep blurring. 22nd July 2025 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Hungary Interest Rate Announcement (Jul.) The Hungarian central bank (MNB) left its base rate unchanged today at 6.50%, and we think that interest rates will remain at this level throughout 2025. That’s a more hawkish view than the consensus... 22nd July 2025 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack (Jul. '25) Our Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Oil prices have fallen back in the wake of the Israel-Iran ceasefire and, with... 22nd July 2025 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB Bank Lending Survey (Q2 2025) The Q2 Bank Lending Survey, published this morning by the ECB, suggests that the economy is still growing at a decent pace. But this is entirely due to improving prospects for the housing sector. The... 22nd July 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Public Finances (Jun. 2025) Despite the £3.6bn overshoot in June, public borrowing is still in line with the OBR’s forecasts for the first three months of the 2025/26 fiscal year. But things will probably get worse for the... 22nd July 2025 · 3 mins read
