India Economics Update Benefits of India-EU trade deal shouldn’t be underplayed It may be tempting to conclude that the long-awaited India-EU trade deal announced today will only have a small economic impact. After all, key sectors such as agriculture remain off the table and the... 27th January 2026 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Jan. 2026) Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Most economies in Central and Eastern Europe will experience stronger GDP growth in 2026... 26th January 2026 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Outlook Looser lending standards to boost activity and prices Despite the recent increase in the supply of homes on the market, we think the combination of looser lending standards, further falls in mortgage rates and decent wage growth will allow housing... 26th January 2026 · 17 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Germany Ifo Survey (January 2026) The weaker-than-expected German Ifo in January pours some cold water on expectations that the German economy might be finally turning the corner. The fiscal stimulus should still cause growth to pick... 26th January 2026 · 2 mins read
UK Commercial Property Chart Pack UK Commercial Property Chart Pack (Jan. 26) Stable yields over 2025 led to a gradual slowdown in capital value growth to 1.4% y/y by the end of the year. And with yields set to see little movement over the next few years, we expect total... 23rd January 2026 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Greenland tensions aftermath, Germany finally recovering? We think that this week's flare-up in EU-US tensions over Greenland is unlikely to have a lasting impact on the euro-zone economy. Meanwhile, data out of Germany suggest its economy may be turning a... 23rd January 2026 · 9 mins read
Commodities Weekly The Arctic strikes back? In a week dominated by President Trump’s pursuit of Greenland, it is perhaps ironic that an anticipated blast of cold air from the Arctic has sent the price of natural gas in the US soaring. Henry Hub... 23rd January 2026 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Weekly The lasting legacy of Trump’s temporary tariff threat Although it took just four days for President Trump's Greenland tariff threat to be withdrawn, the longer lasting impacts on the UK economy could be an accelerated plan to boost defence spending and a... 23rd January 2026 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Orbán’s playbook, Greenland saga, Bulgarian election Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán is returning to the familiar playbook of loosening fiscal policy ahead of the election in April. Any signs that a widening in the budget deficit will be sustained... 23rd January 2026 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK S&P Global Flash PMIs (Jan. 2026) January’s flash PMIs suggest that economic activity picked up at the start of Q1 and that inflationary pressures increased slightly. This reinforces our view that the Bank of England will keep... 23rd January 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone PMIs (January 2026) While the new year has begun with a lot of geopolitical turbulence, the flash PMIs for January suggest that the euro-zone economy is still expanding at a moderate pace while price pressures rose a... 23rd January 2026 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Retail Sales (Dec. 2025) December’s unexpected rise in retail sales volumes wasn’t enough to prevent yet another disappointing “Golden Quarter” for the retail sector, with sales declining by 0.3% q/q in Q4 overall. And while... 23rd January 2026 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Jan. 2026) So far at least, there’s little sign that the geopolitical flare-ups this year have affected capital inflows to emerging markets. Indeed, inflows have picked up sharply in the last few weeks. Even if... 22nd January 2026 · 0 mins read
Commodities Update Trump’s threats strain US-Europe energy relationship Strains in US-Europe relations under President Trump mean that European policymakers may perceive the region’s growing dependence on the US for energy to be a strategic vulnerability. This is not as... 22nd January 2026 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update A quiet meeting next week for the Riksbank There is no doubt that the Riksbank will keep its policy rate at 1.75% next week and continue to signal it will not adjust its policy for many months. We think that policymakers will only start to... 22nd January 2026 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Interest Rate Announcement (Jan. 2026) The Turkish central bank unexpectedly slowed the pace of its easing cycle today with a 100bp cut, to 37.00%. We think this was a response to a likely temporary rise in inflation this month and we are... 22nd January 2026 · 2 mins read
