Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (October 2025) October’s flash PMIs suggest that the euro-zone economy may have picked up a bit at the start of the fourth quarter, although we suspect that growth will probably remain low at around 0.2% q/q. 24th October 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Retail Sales (Sep. 2025) The 0.5% m/m rise in retail sales volumes in September was much better than expected (consensus forecast -0.2% m/m, CE -1.2% m/m) and meant sales rose for the fourth month in a row and by 0.9% q/q in... 24th October 2025 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update US sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil up the ante On the face of it, the announcement of sanctions by the US on Rosneft and Lukoil is a major escalation in the targeting of Russia’s energy sector and could be a big enough shock to flip the global oil... 23rd October 2025 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Oct. 2025) Capital inflows into EMs have held up well over the past month, largely a result of strong flows into equity markets (Korea in particular). While we expect EM currencies to depreciate over the next... 23rd October 2025 · 0 mins read
ECB Watch ECB Watch: Still in a good place The ECB will leave the deposit rate unchanged at 2.0% next week and we expect Christine Lagarde to repeat that monetary policy is in a “good place”. She might also suggest that the next move in... 23rd October 2025 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Interest Rate Announcement (Oct. 2025) The decision by the Turkish central bank (CBRT) to further slow the pace of its easing cycle today with a 100bp cut to its one-week repo rate, to 39.50%, seems to reflect policymakers’ growing... 23rd October 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus A primer on the Ukraine ‘reparations loan’ The EU appears close to agreeing on a loan for Ukraine, backed by frozen Russian assets, that would be repaid by eventual reparations. This Focus explores the macroeconomic implications. The short... 23rd October 2025 · 10 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Oct. 2025) Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The latest data suggest that GDP growth in Central and Eastern Europe generally remained... 23rd October 2025 · 1 min read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Consumer Prices (Sep. 2025) We doubt that the lower peak in CPI inflation than most feared will prompt the Bank of England to cut interest rates from 4.00% at its next policy meeting on 6th November. At 3.8% in September, CPI... 22nd October 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Food inflation is close to its peak We think food inflation is close to its peak and that it will fall next year. Not only will this help to bring down CPI inflation, it will also assist in easing inflation expectations. This may... 21st October 2025 · 5 mins read
UK Commercial Property Chart Pack UK Commercial Property Chart Pack (Oct. 25) Rental growth has continued to surprise on the upside, but signs of a more significant compression of yields in August have not carried through to September. Capital value growth is therefore muted... 21st October 2025 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Hungary Interest Rate Announcement (Oct.) The Hungarian central bank (MNB) delivered no surprises in leaving its base rate on hold today, at 6.50%, and we continue to think that the easing cycle will remain on pause this year. While we had... 21st October 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Public Finances (Sep. 2025) September’s figures highlight the poor performance of the public finances even though the economy hasn’t been terribly weak. This supports our view that the Chancellor will need to raise about £27bn... 21st October 2025 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update EU’s Russian energy ban formalises shift in supply In light of today’s confirmation that the EU will completely phase out Russian LNG and pipeline natural gas imports by end-2026 and September 2027, respectively, this is an updated version of an... 20th October 2025 (Updated 26th January 2026) · 4 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update CE lead indicator points to euro-zone capital value slowdown Our new CE Capital Value Lead Indicator for the euro-zone is consistent with our latest forecast view that prime all-property capital value growth will slow to below 5% y/y by year-end. 20th October 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update SNB heading for negative rates (but no others following) We think it is just a matter of time before the SNB returns to negative policy rates as inflation is close to zero and geopolitical risks may put upward pressure on the franc. But negative rates will... 20th October 2025 · 3 mins read
