Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Emerging Europe Weekly: Romania’s new government, Israel-Iran ceasefire The fiscal tightening measures announced by Romania’s new government, which took office this week, are a welcome development for investors, but we think the public debt ratio will stay on a sharp... 27th June 2025 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Weekly UK Weekly: Revising down our Bank Rate forecast to 3.00% Helped in part by the decline in energy prices, this week we have become more confident that the recent loosening in the labour market will eventually reduce domestic price pressures. As a result, we... 27th June 2025 · 5 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Why we still predict Paris office rents to grow by more than the consensus Despite a sluggish economic backdrop and rising vacancy rates in the wider Paris office market, we continue to believe that prime office rental growth will be stronger than the consensus expects. This... 27th June 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Europe Weekly: Stronger euro, 50% tariff looming The sustained appreciation of the euro will reduce headline euro-zone inflation slightly in the coming months and, at the margin, strengthens the case for a final interest rate cut in this cycle... 27th June 2025 · 7 mins read
Europe Rapid Response EC Survey (June 2025) The ESI for June suggests that US tariffs may be starting to drag on euro-zone activity and that the economy remains weak. Meanwhile, Middle-east tensions do not appear to have raised perceived... 27th June 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Emerging Markets Outlook: Growth concerns to prompt more rate cuts EM exports have held up well this year despite higher US tariffs, but the growth outlook over the second half of the year looks more challenging. We expect a slowdown in most EMs and our forecasts... 26th June 2025 · 28 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Swiss prime property values to recover sooner than most A comparatively attractive spread over risk-free rates and solid investor sentiment mean there is scope for Swiss prime property yields to fall further than in most other European markets this year... 26th June 2025 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Where do fiscal deficits need to shrink most? Most major DMs need to shrink their primary budget deficits significantly and most will find it hard to do so. This will exacerbate growing worries about fiscal sustainability. The US and France have... 26th June 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Jun. 2025) Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Emerging Europe is less vulnerable than other EM regions to higher US import tariffs, but... 26th June 2025 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Can Europe afford NATO targets? If it is implemented in full and funded through borrowing, the target for NATO members to raise defence spending to 3.5% of GDP by 2035 could push debt burdens up by 10% of GDP or more over the next... 25th June 2025 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Czech Interest Rate Announcement (June) The Czech National Bank left its policy rate on hold today, at 3.50%, and we think that further monetary easing is unlikely this year. That is a slightly more hawkish view than the consensus, which... 25th June 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update German budget: stimulus confirmed, deficit above 3% Germany’s budget plans for 2025-29 confirm that the much anticipated big fiscal stimulus is coming and leave us comfortable with our view that GDP growth will pick up significantly from next year and... 25th June 2025 · 4 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Obsolescence to hit UK secondary logistics rental growth Despite solid take-up the industrial vacancy rate has risen to a 10-year high, which reflects occupiers shifting into new buildings at the expense of the secondhand market. We expect that dynamic to... 25th June 2025 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Hungary Interest Rate Announcement (June) 24th June 2025 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update Oil market fundamentals snap back into focus The Israel-Iran ceasefire is likely to prove fragile. But so long as both parties show themselves unwilling to attack export-related energy infrastructure and/or disrupt shipping flows through the... 24th June 2025 · 3 mins read
