Commodities Weekly

Trump’s social media outburst won’t worry the EU

President-elect Trump’s social media outburst warning the EU to buy more US oil and gas won’t cause sleepless nights in Brussels. After all, whereas EU officials might have balked had they been...

20th December 2024 · 4 mins read

Europe Economics Weekly

No economic bazooka in German election manifestos

The election manifestos of Germany’s main political parties, which were published this week, confirm that a radical change in economic policy and/or a big fiscal stimulus after the upcoming general...

20th December 2024 · 10 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Russia Interest Rate Announcement (Dec.)

The unexpected decision by Russia’s central bank to leave interest rates on hold at 21.00% today, rather than hike further, sparks a lot of questions about the central bank’s reaction function – and...

20th December 2024 · 2 mins read

UK Economics Rapid Response

UK Retail Sales (Nov. 2024)

The 0.2% m/m rebound in retail sales volumes in November was slightly worse than expected (consensus +0.5% m/m) and leaves sales on course to decline in Q4 overall. And although that will bring little...

20th December 2024 · 3 mins read

UK Economics Rapid Response

UK Public Finances (Nov. 2024)

Christmas has come early for the Chancellor with borrowing undershooting expectations in November. But the weakening in the economy and recent rises in market interest rates suggests the government...

20th December 2024 · 3 mins read

Emerging Markets Economic Outlook

Bracing for headwinds

Headwinds to growth will remain strong in 2025 and our forecasts lie below the consensus. While more protectionist US trade policy will hit China and Mexico, the impact for most is likely to be...

19th December 2024 · 27 mins read

UK Economics Update

Dovish hold suggests rates will be cut further than markets expect

While the Bank of England left interest rates at 4.75% today, it struck a slightly more dovish tone. This supports our view that the next 25 basis points (bps) rate cut will come in February and that...

19th December 2024 · 4 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Czech Interest Rate Announcement (Dec.)

The Czech central bank (CNB) left its policy rate on hold at 4.00% today, but we think that the easing cycle will resume before long. We still expect rates to fall towards 3.00% by the end of next...

19th December 2024 · 1 min read

Europe Commercial Property Update

Oversupply will keep CEE logistics in a rut in 2025

The non-euro-zone central European logistics markets have been Europe’s worst performing in 2024 as prime rents have fallen across the region. 2025 will herald more of the same, as oversupply keeps...

19th December 2024 · 6 mins read

UK Economics Rapid Response

Bank of England Policy Announcement (19th Dec. 2024)

While the Bank of England left interest rates at 4.75% today, it struck a slightly more dovish tone. This supports our view that the next 25 basis points (bps) rate cut will come in February and that...

19th December 2024 · 3 mins read

UK Commercial Property Chart Pack

UK Commercial Property Chart Pack (Dec. 24)

The fiscal loosening announced in October’s Budget means inflation and gilt yields are now set to be higher than previously expected over the next few years. That will limit yield compression, and the...

19th December 2024 · 1 min read

Global Economic Outlook

Weathering geopolitical storms and tariff threats

We expect 2025 to be another year of reasonably healthy global GDP growth and a continued normalisation of monetary policy. To the extent that tariffs hurt the global economy, the damage will be less...

19th December 2024 · 44 mins read

Europe Economics Update

Norges Bank and Riksbank divergence continues

The Riksbank’s decision to cut its policy rate by 25bp to 2.5% was widely anticipated and we expect it to cut just one last time next year, by 25bp in March. In contrast, Norges Bank left its policy...

19th December 2024 · 3 mins read

Europe Rapid Response

Riksbank Policy Announcement (December 2024)

The Riksbank cut its policy rate by just 25bp today to 2.5% and it is unlikely to cut at its next meeting in January. Further ahead, we now expect just one more 25bp cut next year, in March, as we...

19th December 2024 · 2 mins read

Capital Daily

UK equities ignoring struggling economy

UK equities have kept up with other non-US ones in recent months despite a string of weak domestic activity data and stubborn inflation pressure. We think they will outperform most non-US markets in...

18th December 2024 · 4 mins read