Europe Commercial Property Update Lending conditions improving, but refinancing challenges to persist Survey data point to an improving commercial real estate lending environment in H1 this year. This will support investment activity, though our updated estimates suggest refinancing challenges will... 4th February 2026 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Analysing public debt sustainability in the euro-zone Among the largest euro-zone countries, public debt looks most worrying in France because it is on an upward trajectory and Italy because it is likely to remain very high. Government debt is also set... 3rd February 2026 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB Bank Lending Survey (Q4 2025) The ECB’s Q4 Bank Lending Survey, published this morning, suggests that banks have become more cautious about lending to companies while consumers remain reluctant to spend. It also showed that the... 3rd February 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update How the EU-India trade deal will affect the euro-zone The recently signed EU-India trade deal promises big tariff reductions which should support EU export growth. However, the starting level of exports is low, the phase-in will be gradual, and imports... 2nd February 2026 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack UK Economics Chart Pack (Feb. 2026) The data published since the start of the year suggest economic activity and price pressures have strengthened. But we still expect annual GDP growth to slow and the weak labour market to weigh on... 2nd February 2026 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Emerging Europe Manufacturing PMIs (Jan.) The manufacturing PMIs out of Emerging Europe all came in below 50 which suggests that industrial sectors across the region started the year on the back foot. We think that demand conditions in... 2nd February 2026 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Rapid Response UK Nationwide House Prices (Jan. 2026) Although Nationwide house prices rose by 0.3% m/m in January, that only partially reversed December’s fall and means there is little evidence of a post-Budget rebound in house prices. Even so, we are... 2nd February 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly French bond rally looks overdone The French government's survival after bypassing parliament to implement the 2026 budget has done nothing to improve the country's long-term debt dynamics. So we think that the recent narrowing of... 30th January 2026 · 8 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Stronger pound helpful for BoE, but rising oil price is a risk While the pound's recent appreciation against the US dollar doesn't materially change the outlook for UK CPI inflation, the Bank of England will welcome a bit more disinflationary pressure. But one... 30th January 2026 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Security guarantees “with strings", dovish central banks Reports this week suggest the US has made the offer of security guarantees for Ukraine conditional on territorial concessions to Russia. The macro implications will depend on how credible those... 30th January 2026 · 10 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone GDP (Q4 2025) & Unemployment (Dec. 2025) Euro-zone GDP growth remained around its trend rate in Q4 and we expect it to maintain that pace in 2026. 30th January 2026 · 2 mins read
UK Commercial Property Rapid Response Lending to UK commercial property (Dec. 25) Net lending secured against commercial property was strong again in December, reaching £2.47bn, taking the three-month rolling total to £6.69bn, its highest since May 2020. That was wholly driven by... 30th January 2026 · 1 min read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Money & Lending (Dec. 2025) December’s money and lending data suggest that households’ caution with their borrowing and saving hasn’t gone away, reinforcing our view that consumer spending will underperform the consensus... 30th January 2026 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response CEE GDP (Q4 2025 & Annual 2025) GDP figures out of Central Europe this morning show that Poland’s recovery gathered pace, while Hungary lagged behind. We think that growth will pick up across the region this year, although Poland... 30th January 2026 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Germany, France, Italy & Spain GDP (Q4 2025) National data published this morning suggest that euro-zone GDP grew by a slightly stronger-than-expected 0.3% q/q in Q4. Spain remained the star performer, while Germany, France and Italy also... 30th January 2026 · 2 mins read
