Commodities Focus Assessing the post-Ukraine war energy landscape While some Russian pipeline gas flows into the EU could resume as part of any Ukraine-Russia peace deal, at most such supplies would probably only recover to about a quarter of pre-invasion levels... 24th February 2025 · 15 mins read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone underlying inflation easing gradually January’s inflation data show that domestic price pressures are strong but easing. We remain convinced that they will decline much further this year. 24th February 2025 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily What Germany’s election means for markets We think the new German government won’t prop up the country’s economy much. That’s a reason why we expect to see lower long-term Bund yields, a weaker euro and a poor showing from German equities... 24th February 2025 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Israel Interest Rate Announcement (Feb.) 24th February 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update German election: your questions answered Following yesterday’s federal election in Germany, this Update answers questions raised by clients in our on-line briefing (which can be viewed here). 24th February 2025 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Activity Data (Jan.) The stronger-than-expected activity data out of Poland for January suggest the economy has carried over some of the positive momentum from the end of last year. Alongside the recent strength of... 24th February 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Germany Federal Election There was never any doubt that the centre right CDU would come out on top of the German federal election and that its leader Friedrich Merz would become the next German Chancellor . The first exit... 23rd February 2025 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Emerging Europe Weekly: What would a “dirty deal” for Russia-Ukraine mean? The US-Russia meeting this week to seek an end to the war in Ukraine has clearly raised the possibility that a peace deal is negotiated quickly and on terms more favourable to Russia (a so called... 21st February 2025 · 9 mins read
Europe Economics Update EZ exporters struggling even without higher US tariffs Euro-zone exports have performed poorly for several years and the outlook is poor even if the EU does not get into a trade war with the US. We suspect that US tariffs will be only a small additional... 21st February 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Europe Weekly: more tariff threats, Germany votes President Trump’s statement this week that he plans tariffs on pharmaceuticals as well as motor vehicles is just the latest in a long list of protectionist threats. For now, we still think the risk to... 21st February 2025 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Weekly UK Weekly: Rebound in inflation could spell trouble for the BoE With households particularly sensitive to rising food and energy prices, we're becoming more worried that the Bank of England can't ignore the big increase in food inflation in January and the coming... 21st February 2025 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK S&P Global Flash PMIs (Feb. 2025) The composite activity PMI was unchanged in February, which is consistent with the economy moving sideways in the middle of Q1, following a 0.1% q/q rise in Q4 of last year. (See Chart 1.) But more... 21st February 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (February 2025) February’s Flash Composite PMI provides more evidence that, after expanding by only 0.1% in Q4, the euro-zone economy remains all but stagnant in Q1. 21st February 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Public Finances (Jan. 2025) While January’s disappointing public finances figures may not be as bad as they first appear, they continue the run of bad news for the Chancellor in 2025 and underline the difficult choices she faces... 21st February 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Retail Sales (Jan. 2025) The leap in retail sales volumes in January shows that the retail sector shot out of the blocks at the start of the year. But some of that strength will have come at the expense of weakness in other... 21st February 2025 · 3 mins read
