UK Commercial Property Update Upward-only rent review ban in England and Wales would nudge commercial property yields up Experience from Ireland suggests that a ban on upward-only rent reviews will weigh on future rental growth and widen property yield spreads to risk-free rates. While the overall impact is unlikely to... 15th July 2025 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update Low EU gas storage levels to push prices up this year European natural gas stores are low and efforts to refill them will support prices over the rest of this year. Further ahead, increased supply should bring prices down to a below consensus €25 per MWh... 15th July 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (May) The increase in euro-zone industrial production in May confirms that the sector has been resilient to US tariffs so far and that may remain the case in the near term if, as we expect, Trump’s threat... 15th July 2025 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update Can energy markets eat secondary tariffs on Russia? In light of President Trump's announcement of a reduced deadline of 10 to 12 days for Russia to make progress towards ending the war in Ukraine, we are re-sending this Update assessing the... 14th July 2025 · 6 mins read
Asset Allocation Update EUR/USD strength is built on shaky economic assumptions While the interest-rate-differential-defying strength of EUR/USD may be partly explained by increased currency hedging, it also reflects shifting expectations for economic growth. We think those will... 14th July 2025 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Dollar rebound has further to run despite Tariff Man The US dollar is ending the week a touch stronger as President Trump continues to ratchet up his tariff threats again and US interest rate expectations edge higher. As widely expected, the 9th July... 11th July 2025 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Emerging Europe Weekly: Romania inflation rebound, Trump’s Russia statement Romania’s fiscal tightening measures will add to the country’s inflation problem in the near term, and we’ve significantly revised up our CPI forecast over the next year. While the consensus view is... 11th July 2025 · 5 mins read
Event Drop-In: Another French government falls – what next for its economy and markets? 6th October 2025, 3:00PM BST The resignation of Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu adds fresh uncertainty to France’s economic and market outlook.
Event Drop-In: What’s really holding up the commercial real estate recovery? 9th September 2025, 9:00AM BST Global property markets have been recovering through the first half of 2025, with tariffs and other uncertainties showing only limited impact so far.
Event Drop-In: The EU’s looming carbon border tax – what it means for growth, trade and competitiveness 16th October 2025, 3:00PM BST The EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) is coming.
Event UK Drop-In: Peak inflation? September CPI and the outlook for policy 22nd October 2025, 9:30AM BST Our UK team hosted a 20-minute online briefing to unpack the latest CPI data, discuss the implications for inflation and policy and explain how they shape our non-consensus Bank Rate
Event Drop-In: The Fed, ECB and Bank of England – Latest decisions and policy outlook 30th October 2025, 3:00PM GMT Our senior economists hosted this 20-minute session to review the latest Fed and ECB decisions and preview the Bank of England’s November meeting.
Event Drop-In: France’s political turmoil and the fragility of global bond markets 9th September 2025, 10:00AM BST François Bayrou has survived eight no-confidence votes since becoming France’s Prime Minister late last year.
Event UK Drop-In: The Autumn Budget – What’s next for the economy and markets? 26th November 2025, 3:00PM GMT After weeks of speculation, the Chancellor’s 26th November Budget will finally show how she plans to support growth while staying within her fiscal rules.
Event Central Bank Drop-In: Unpacking the Fed, ECB and Bank of England September meetings 18th September 2025, 3:00PM BST Our senior economists from our US, Europe and UK teams hosted this online briefing to dive into the latest decisions and comms from the Fed, ECB and Bank of England, and to answer client quest
Event UK Drop-In: The Bank of England’s November decision – What’s next for rates? 6th November 2025, 3:00PM GMT The September CPI report has fuelled expectations that the Bank of England could lower interest rates when it meets on 6 November.
