UK Commercial Property Update Banks still keen to lend to UK commercial real estate A divergence between banks’ expectations for house and commercial real estate prices may explain why they are still keen to ramp up lending to commercial real estate even as the availability of credit... 20th January 2026 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Questions and answers on Hungary’s pivotal election The latest polls suggest that Viktor Orbán’s long-ruling Fidesz party could lose power in Hungary’s parliamentary election on 12th April. This Update answers five key questions on the implications of... 20th January 2026 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Labour Market (Nov./Dec. 2025) While the labour market remains soft, the stability of overall pay growth in November diminishes the chances that the Bank of England will cut interest rates from 3.75% now to 3.50% at the next policy... 20th January 2026 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Your questions about tensions over Greenland We hosted an online Drop-In session today to discuss escalating tensions over Greenland and their economic implications. (Recording available here.) This Update provides answers to some of the... 19th January 2026 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Romania Interest Rate Announcement (Jan.) The decision by the National Bank of Romania to leave its policy rate on hold again today, at 6.50%, was widely expected by analysts, and we think that high inflation will continue to prevent interest... 19th January 2026 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Pick-up in euro-zone services inflation won’t last December’s inflation data add weight to our view that the pick-up in services inflation towards the end of last year was, to coin a phrase, transitory. We expect it to decline in January and trend... 19th January 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Europe will move cautiously over Greenland threats If implemented and sustained for a long period, the new tariffs that President Trump has threatened over the Greenland dispute could cost the euro-zone economy something between 0.2% and 0.5% of GDP... 19th January 2026 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Update Trump’s Greenland tariffs would be another drag for the UK If President Trump’s latest tariff threats were actually implemented, they would add to the existing pain for UK car and pharmaceutical manufacturers and in a worse-case scenario could reduce UK GDP... 19th January 2026 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily First thoughts on Greenland, tariffs & financial markets While the rhetoric around the Trump administration’s interest in Greenland is escalating rapidly, financial markets have taken the return of US-Europe trade tensions over recent days largely in their... 19th January 2026 · 6 mins read
Event Drop-In: The Greenland Crisis – What to make of this US-Europe conflict? 19th January 2026, 11:00AM GMT The transatlantic row over Greenland’s sovereignty intensified over the weekend following Donald Trump’s threat to ratchet up tariffs on European economies until Denmark agrees to sell.
Global Economics Rapid Response Greenland tariffs: the political consequences would trump the economic It remains unclear whether President Trump’s threat to impose tariffs on eight European countries unless a deal is reached to acquire Greenland will ever materialise. But if it does, the economic... 18th January 2026 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia Consumer Prices (Dec. 2025) The further sharp fall in Russian inflation, to 5.6% y/y in December, will be welcomed by the central bank but this is likely to be temporary as a result of the VAT hike that came into force this... 16th January 2026 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB independence is not at risk The ECB does not face the same imminent threat to its independence as the US Fed, but it could come under more pressure from politicians in future. However, it would be much harder for governments to... 16th January 2026 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Iran spillovers, CEE activity, Russian inflation spike The spillover effects for economies in Emerging Europe from the protests in Iran this week will largely depend on how commodity prices move. From a political standpoint, the protests are another blow... 16th January 2026 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Weekly February may be too soon, but rate cuts to keep on coming Unless next week’s labour market and inflation data are unanimously weak, February may be too soon for another interest rate cut given the Bank of England’s hawkish tilt at its December meeting. But... 16th January 2026 · 10 mins read
