UK Economics Rapid Response UK GDP (Nov. 2024) While the smaller-than-expected 0.1% m/m rebound in GDP in November (consensus and CE forecast +0.2% m/m) offset the 0.1% m/m decline in activity in October, it’s clear that the economy has a bit less... 16th January 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update RICS Residential Market Survey (Dec. 2024) December’s RICS survey suggests that the relief rally after the Budget may have started to fade at the end of last year and the recent rise in mortgage rates have finally began to weigh on housing... 16th January 2025 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update The implications of the Israel-Hamas ceasefire The ceasefire reportedly agreed between Israel and Hamas is likely to have significant consequences for some countries in the region, notably Israel itself as well as Jordan and Egypt. But the... 15th January 2025 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia Consumer Prices (Dec.) The rise in Russian inflation to 9.5% y/y in December is likely to be followed by an increase to more than 10% early this year. The central bank has set a high bar for further tightening but we think... 15th January 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Romania Interest Rate Announcement (Jan.) The National Bank of Romania (NBR) left its policy rate on hold again today, at 6.50%, amid continued concerns about the inflation outlook and the direction of fiscal policy post-election. We think... 15th January 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update French industrial rent prospects slip down the rankings Slowing economic growth and rising availability will hold back French industrial rental growth this year, with affordability concerns likely to be an additional drag in Paris. This will leave the... 15th January 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (November 2024) The small uptick in euro-zone industrial production in November will be of little relief to the beleaguered sector. Surveys suggest that production will remain subdued over the coming months and... 15th January 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update A guide to upcoming elections across CEE A flurry of elections are due across Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) over the next year or so, which will provide a gauge of support for Ukraine and, in some cases, will shape countries’ future... 15th January 2025 · 6 mins read
Europe Rapid Response German GDP (2024) Preliminary GDP data for Germany suggest there is still no sign of the country exiting stagnation, with GDP down slightly in both Q4 and in 2024 as a whole. We forecast a very small cyclical recovery... 15th January 2025 · 1 min read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Consumer Prices (Dec. 2024) While a lot of the surprisingly large fall in services inflation from 5.0% in November to 4.4% in December (CE forecast 4.8%, BoE 4.7%) was due to a very sharp fall in airfares inflation, underlying... 15th January 2025 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update FX bond issuance ramps up, but the outlook is cloudy EM sovereign FX debt issuance surged over the past year and at the start of 2025, albeit with many sovereigns returning to global markets and issuing at high interest rates. Borrowing does not look... 14th January 2025 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Poland’s budget blowout: how big a risk? Poland’s public debt dynamics are more favourable than many of its peers. But the sharp widening of the budget deficit, coupled with the decision to leave austerity measures until next year and beyond... 14th January 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Drop in foreign students a small risk for PBSA rents At first glance the 24% y/y drop in sponsored study visas in Q3 2024 spells bad news for PBSA rents. But the cause of that drop - new rules banning international students from bringing dependents -... 14th January 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Madrid offices will continue to outperform Madrid has seen some of the region’s strongest prime office rental growth in the recent past. While the factors supporting this surge may weaken slightly over time, we think that rent and returns... 14th January 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update What could policymakers do in response to higher gilt yields? Our base case is that a stabilisation and eventual fall back in gilt yields will allow the government to muddle through and wait until the next fiscal event on 26th March before making any decisions... 14th January 2025 · 5 mins read
Commodities Update Sanctions boost oil prices, but impact will fade away The recent ramp-up in US sanctions on Russia’s oil supply chain has tightened the global oil market and may keep prices higher in the near term. But we still expect greater OPEC+ supply and weak... 14th January 2025 · 3 mins read
