Rising chance of ECB hikes in first half of the year
Before ECB policymakers react to the rise in energy prices, they will wait for more clarity on the size and duration of the shock. There would be no need for a response if energy prices dropped back towards pre-war levels fairly soon, but this looks increasingly unlikely. If energy prices remain high, there would be a good chance of the ECB hiking in June, or if prices rose much further it could hike as soon as April.
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