UK Economics Weekly Economy losing momentum, but public sector will help The recent news on activity is probably overstating the weakness of the economy as it is not adequately capturing the increases in government spending and public investment. Even so, it does appear as... 29th November 2024 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly RUB under pressure, Israel ceasefire, Romania election New US sanctions on Russia’s financial system have contributed to a sharp sell-off in the ruble this week and, while a tightening of capital controls has eased pressure on the currency over the past... 29th November 2024 · 7 mins read
Climate Economics Monthly States to defy Trump; COP29 wrap-up; EV crossroads Trump’s election victory means that states will have to take the lead on climate policy to push the green transition forward, as progress on the federal level looks unlikely. Meanwhile, weakness in... 29th November 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily We see more trouble ahead for French OATs The spread between 10-year French and German government bond yields has risen again, and we forecast that it will continue to trend up next year. 29th November 2024 · 6 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone HICP (November 2024) The continued strength of euro-zone services inflation in November reduces the chance that the ECB will cut interest rates by 50bp in December. But one-off base effects stopped services inflation from... 29th November 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Commercial Property Rapid Response Lending to commercial property (Oct. 24) Net lending to property totalled £1.21bn in October, marking the third consecutive month of net lending exceeding £1bn. 29th November 2024 · 1 min read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Money & Lending (Oct. 2024) October’s money and lending figures suggest that Budget worries prompted households to become more cautious with their borrowing and saving. Moreover, November’s weak activity data suggest the tax... 29th November 2024 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey GDP (Q3 2024) The 0.2% q/q contraction in the Turkish economy in Q3 suggests that policymakers’ efforts to weaken demand and tame high inflation are taking effect. We still think that it would be premature for the... 29th November 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Nov. 2024) The weak run of activity data out of Emerging Europe continued over the past month and, while the region is more insulated from Trump’s tariff threats than some other EMs, the risks to our already... 28th November 2024 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Little upside risks for Bund yields from US tariff threat National inflation data for November released today suggest that euro-zone inflation has edged up this month, but we think this is just a blip. We still expect inflation to drop below target next year... 28th November 2024 · 4 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Takeaways from our Property in 2025 roundtables This week we held a series of roundtable discussions with clients in our London office about the outlook for European commercial property. This Update outlines our thoughts on some of the most... 28th November 2024 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Don’t expect a big fiscal stimulus in Germany It now seems increasingly likely that, as we had been expecting, Germany will loosen its strict fiscal rule after the upcoming general election. However, hopes of a big fiscal stimulus are likely to... 28th November 2024 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Update Pledge not to raise taxes may not survive contact with reality The Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, has confidently claimed that she will not be “coming back with more taxes”, but developments since the Budget have already whittled away her fiscal ‘headroom’. Further... 28th November 2024 · 5 mins read
Europe Rapid Response EC Survey (November 2024) The EC survey was little changed in November and is still consistent with weak growth at best, while the price components suggest that inflationary pressures remain sticky. 28th November 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update IPF Consensus Forecasts (Nov. 24.) The latest IPF Consensus Survey was broadly unchanged from the previous forecast round. Total returns at the all-property level are forecast to be 7.7% p.a. over 2024-28, up from 7.6% p.a. previously... 27th November 2024 · 3 mins read
