Europe Rapid Response Norges Bank Policy Announcement (December 2025) Today’s decision to leave the policy rate at 4.0% came as no surprise and the Bank’s messaging repeated that any further rate cuts will be very gradual. We are forecasting the next cut to come in... 18th December 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Riksbank Policy Announcement (December 2025) While the Riksbank left its policy rate at 1.75% and its forward guidance unchanged today, the economic data have improved significantly over the past few months and have given us greater confidence... 18th December 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack UK Housing Market Chart Pack (Dec. 2025) While housing activity and prices have been resilient to uncertainty ahead of the Budget and the subdued economic backdrop, there are few signs of a post-Budget rebound in buyer sentiment. If... 17th December 2025 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Chart Pack UK Commercial Property Chart Pack (Dec. 25) Rental growth has ended the year on a strong note, but with yields stable total returns are beginning to ease from their recent level of around 8% y/y. And with yields set to see little movement over... 17th December 2025 · 1 min read
Global Commercial Property Chart Pack Global Commercial Property Chartpack (Q4 2025) Global property returns have improved in 2025, though performance in APAC and the US has lagged Europe. This divergence is set to continue in 2026. However, we expect performance in the US will... 17th December 2025 · 0 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Dec. 2025) Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Most economies in Central and Eastern Europe will experience stronger GDP growth in 2026... 17th December 2025 · 1 min read
Europe Rapid Response Germany Ifo Survey (December 2025) The fall in the German Ifo in December chimes with the drop in the Composite PMI and suggests that the long-awaited recovery in the German economy still has not materialised, with the fiscal stimulus... 17th December 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Consumer Prices (Nov. 2025) The further big fall in CPI inflation, from 3.6% in October to 3.2% in November, will surely be enough to prompt the Governor of the Bank of England to reach into his big bag tomorrow and give... 17th December 2025 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Softer growth, starker divides EM GDP growth will slow to ~3.5% in 2026-27, the weakest rate in the past three decades outside times of crisis. But there are wide divergences at a country level. Much of the weakness in EM growth... 16th December 2025 · 27 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Hungary Interest Rate Announcement (Dec.) The decision by the Hungarian central bank (MNB) to leave its base rate on hold today, at 6.50%, was widely expected and, despite a near-term dip in inflation, we expect rates to stay on hold until... 16th December 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Flash PMIs (Dec. 2025) Although December’s flash PMIs showed that economic activity and price pressures increased, they are still consistent with sluggish GDP growth and falling services inflation. So we doubt this will... 16th December 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (December 2025) December’s flash PMI was a little weaker than the reading in November but is still consistent with the economy expanding moderately in the fourth quarter while inflationary pressures remain too high... 16th December 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Labour Market (Oct./Nov. 2025) Despite the continued cooling in the jobs market, total wage growth continues to ease only fairly gradually. But the Bank of England will take comfort from the more significant continued easing in its... 16th December 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Economic Outlook The year that inflation falls back to 2% After enduring a higher inflation rate than most of its peers for the bulk of the past five years, we think that 2026 will be the year that inflation in the UK falls back to the 2.0% target. That will... 15th December 2025 · 17 mins read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Diverging outlook as war in Ukraine drags on Most economies in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) will experience stronger GDP growth in 2026 as external demand picks up and fiscal policy is kept loose (or loosened), while Russia’s economy will... 15th December 2025 · 25 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Our forecasts in 2025 – Inflation miss, Bank Rate hit At this time of year it is useful to look back at how your forecasts have done and to learn from any mistakes to improve your future forecasts. Both we and the consensus underestimated inflation again... 12th December 2025 · 10 mins read
