Emerging Europe Economics Update Why the CNB’s next move will be a hike The Czech National Bank (CNB) has left interest rates on hold over the past six months and, while the consensus view remains that there’ll be one more cut, we think the improving growth outlook means... 12th November 2025 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Romania Interest Rate Announcement (Nov.) The decision by the National Bank of Romania (NBR) to leave its policy rate on hold today, at 6.50%, came as no surprise, and a return to monetary easing is still some way off. Our current forecast is... 12th November 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Prime office rents set to outperform consensus expectations The consensus view of European prime office rental growth was generally revised up for this year and next. Even so, we remain more upbeat than the consensus given our view that low levels of new... 12th November 2025 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Delays to US LNG won’t prevent gas prices from falling A combination of delays to LNG export capacity in the US and greater demand for natural gas from AI data centres will, all else equal, constrain the supply of LNG over the coming years. However... 12th November 2025 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Gilt yields probably have further to fall We think a continued softening of the UK labour market and a sizeable tightening of fiscal policy later this month means that the Bank of England (BoE) will cut its policy rate further over the next... 11th November 2025 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Focus Has the AI “jobpocalypse” begun? The deterioration in the entry-level jobs market has sparked concerns that an “AI jobpocalypse” is upon us. While AI is a contributing factor – especially in some specialised fields like software... 11th November 2025 · 17 mins read
Europe Economics Update Risks to Ireland’s economy have diminished The risks to Ireland from President Trump’s tax reforms now appear less likely to materialise than they did a few months ago. This, and the recent economic data, suggest the economic outlook remains... 11th November 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Labour Market (Sep./Oct. 2025) The continued weakness in the labour market and easing in pay growth will be welcomed by the Bank of England and slightly increases the chances that it will next cut interest rates at its policy... 11th November 2025 · 3 mins read
Event UK Drop-In: Autumn Budget – What does it mean for the property outlook? 3rd December 2025, 3:00PM GMT In this special post-Budget session, our macro and property economists assessed the implications for commercial property returns.
UK Economics Weekly Bank Rate in BoE downside scenario looks more convincing The Chancellor gave the biggest hint yet this week that large tax rises are coming in the Budget on 26 th November. Our view that she will raise taxes by around £38bn, which would weigh on inflation... 7th November 2025 · 9 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly NBP interest rate cuts, diverging growth outlook The communications following the decision by the National Bank of Poland (NBP) this week to cut its policy rate by 25bp, to 4.25%, suggest that the risk to our forecast for the policy rate to bottom... 7th November 2025 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Defence sector won’t save euro-zone industry Rising government spending on defence appears to have boosted production in the sector already. But with larger sectors within industry facing significant structural headwinds we think the outlook for... 7th November 2025 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack UK Economics Chart Pack (Nov. 2025) If the Chancellor raises taxes by around £38bn (1.1% of GDP) in the Budget on 26th November as we expect, that may knock 0.2 percentage points off our 2026 GDP growth forecast of 1.2%. But it supports... 7th November 2025 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Rapid Response UK Halifax House Prices (Oct. 2025) The chunky rebound in the Halifax measure of house prices in October chimes with the recent monthly rises on the alternative Nationwide measure and implies that September’s 0.3% m/m fall was a blip... 7th November 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update A pause in BoE interest rate cuts, not the end The Bank of England stressed that today’s decision to leave interest rates at 4.00% is a pause in the downward trend in interest rates rather than the end. With a tightening in fiscal policy in the... 6th November 2025 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Czech Interest Rate Announcement (Nov.) The decision by the Czech National Bank to leave its policy rate on hold today, at 3.50%, was widely expected by analysts, and policy settings are likely to remain unchanged next month. That said, in... 6th November 2025 · 2 mins read
