Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (December 2024) The fall in euro-zone industrial production in December means that the sector contracted again in Q4. Surveys suggest that production will remain subdued in the coming months and we think that the... 13th February 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Swiss CPI (January) The fall in inflation in January was a little smaller than we had anticipated and perhaps reduces the risk of Switzerland falling into deflation later this year. But we still think the SNB is most... 13th February 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK GDP (Dec. & Q4 2024) The 0.1% q/q rise in real GDP in Q4 (consensus, CE and BoE forecasts all -0.1%) leaves the economy all-but stagnating as businesses adjust to higher taxes and more uncertainty from overseas. We aren’t... 13th February 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update RICS Residential Market Survey (Jan. 2025) January’s RICS survey suggests that the recent rises in mortgage rates and the downbeat economic outlook weighed on housing demand at the start of this year. But bigger falls in mortgage rates than... 13th February 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Could the EU target US services? Any attempt by the EU to impose tariffs on imports of US services would be controversial and difficult to implement. It is more likely that the EU links regulation and domestic taxation of digital... 12th February 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Retail is back, but online will remain a drag into the 2030s Five years ago, the retail sector was staring at the abyss, as lockdowns and virus-related restrictions worsened what was already a crisis in demand. The turnaround since has been dramatic. But while... 12th February 2025 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Upside inflation risks build across CEE The latest CPI data out of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) have been stronger than expected, and leading indicators suggest that inflation across the region may be higher than we previously... 12th February 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Lack of labour casts shadow over Greek recovery Prospects for Greece’s economy are brighter than for the core euro-zone economies over the next year or two, but a shortage of labour will keep growth lower than in fellow “peripheral” economies... 12th February 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update German election: return of the GroKo? The latest opinion polls suggest that a CDU-SPD coalition is the most likely outcome of the German election. Such a coalition would be less likely to pursue labour market reforms and activist... 11th February 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Revising down our UK GDP forecasts to below the consensus Higher taxes for businesses, a lingering drag from the previous interest rate hikes and softer overseas demand explain why we have revised down our UK GDP growth forecasts, from 1.3% to 0.7% for 2025... 11th February 2025 · 5 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Euro-zone CRE investment outlook still gloomy After a strong Q4, a shaky start to 2025 has highlighted the fragility of the recovery in euro-zone commercial real estate investment. We still expect transaction volumes to rise over the remainder of... 11th February 2025 · 5 mins read
Equities Update Tariffs, the federal election, and German equities We expect equities in Germany to underperform those in other major developed markets in the coming year or so because German firms are more exposed to the increase in protectionism which appears to be... 11th February 2025 · 4 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Rental supply to remain tight While it is possible that a fall in mortgage rates will trigger a modest increase in the number of rental properties over the next two years, we doubt this will offset the weakness in rental supply... 11th February 2025 · 4 mins read
Commodities Chart Pack Commodities Chart Pack (February 2025) Trump’s curveballs have limited sway in oil markets With oil prices back to where they were at the start of the year, the oil market has offered a collective shrug to the geopolitical curveballs... 10th February 2025 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (Feb. 2025) We expect the euro-zone economy to grow at only a sluggish pace this year, with southern economies outperforming the core. Germany’s election will lead to only a modest loosening of its restrictive... 10th February 2025 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Will new London office supply run dry from 2027? The Central London office pipeline looks set to go from feast to famine over the next few years, with a sharp drop in planned completions from 2027. But we doubt new office supply will run dry... 10th February 2025 · 4 mins read
