Emerging Europe Economics Weekly CBRT battling against capital outflows Turkey’s central bank (CBRT) delivered a hawkish surprise in raising its one-week repo rate to 46.00% today, which came against the backdrop of continued FX reserve losses and large capital outflows... 17th April 2025 · 6 mins read
Global Commercial Property Chart Pack Global Commercial Property Chartpack (Q1 2025) Aside from some industrial assets, commercial property is not directly impacted by higher tariffs. However, uncertainty and the likelihood that economic growth slows will likely hold back investment... 17th April 2025 · 0 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Interest Rate Announcement (Apr.) The decision by the Turkish central bank (CBRT) to hike its one-week repo rate by 350bp, to 46.00%, formalises the emergency monetary tightening delivered last month and is a strong signal of... 17th April 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Weekly UK Weekly: It’s no longer all about services CPI inflation We’ve become more convinced that the new US tariff regime will reduce inflation in the UK, not least because there are some early signs that goods originally destined for the US are being “dumped” in... 17th April 2025 · 7 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Is German retail making a comeback? German retail performance has been among the worst in the euro-zone for most of the last decade. A combination of declining vacancy, better affordability and reduced online leakage point to a relative... 16th April 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone disinflation remains on track March’s decline in services inflation was entirely due to transport, which in turn reflected past moves in oil prices and Easter timing effects. But the fundamentals still point to continued declines... 16th April 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Consumer Prices (Mar. 2025) The dip in CPI inflation from 2.8% in February to 2.6% in March won’t be sustained for long, with inflation set to rise to around 3.5% in the coming months. But we think a weak economy will quash... 16th April 2025 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Market turbulence may continue to subside While the dust from the market sell-off continues to settle, there are few signs that the turmoil in equity and sovereign bond markets has sparked broader instability or a self-reinforcing downward... 15th April 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update UK rents growth to stay above pre-pandemic rates While the big easing in market rents inflation over the past few years suggests falls in all-tenancy rents inflation are in the offing, both measures of rents inflation will probably stay above pre... 15th April 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update European Union reluctant to retaliate Although the EU is likely to respond to US tariffs at some point, recent developments reinforce our view that it will move slowly and that any retaliation will be moderate. This should limit the... 15th April 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (February 2025) The increase in euro-zone industrial production for a second consecutive month in February is not a sign of a sustained recovery for the sector. Instead, it is partly due to manufacturers ramping up... 15th April 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update EZ bank lending in decent shape before US tariff shock The ECB’s Bank Lending Survey paints a positive picture of the housing market. Conditions for consumer credit and corporate loans were less encouraging, and the tariff chaos of the past two weeks... 15th April 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Labour Market (Feb. 2025) While the jobs market weakened further, there were few signs this is feeding through to slower wage growth. But if the more uncertain backdrop from the recent US tariffs chaos soon becomes a bigger... 15th April 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Safe haven flows to force SNB into action With the Swiss currency having experienced its largest two-week appreciation since the “Frankenshock” in 2015, the SNB may already have started selling francs in the FX market. We have a 25bp cut... 11th April 2025 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Emerging Europe Weekly: Trade war rollercoaster generating mixed pressures The 90-day pause on US “reciprocal tariffs” has reduced the scale of near-term downside risks to economic growth across Central and Eastern Europe. Meanwhile, Russia has managed to avoid being hit... 11th April 2025 · 7 mins read
