UK Economics Rapid Response UK Consumer Prices (Oct. 2025) The fall in CPI inflation from 3.8% in September to 3.6% in October (CE, consensus and BoE forecasts all 3.6%) is the second softish inflation release in a row and could well prompt the Governor of... 19th November 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update North-south divide emerges in Europe AI usage It is still early days in the roll-out of AI but the data available at this stage suggest that there is a big variation in its usage between European economies. Firms in the Nordics and Benelux are... 18th November 2025 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Hungary Interest Rate Announcement (Nov.) The Hungarian central bank left its base rate on hold, at 6.50% as expected today, and with pre-election fiscal loosening on the cards, the monetary easing cycle looks like it may stay paused for... 18th November 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Key client questions from our commercial property in 2026 roundtables Recently we held a series of roundtable discussions with clients in our London office about the outlook for commercial real estate in 2026 and beyond. This note shares our answers to some of the most... 18th November 2025 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Update US-Swiss deal to help reverse GDP contraction Assuming it is implemented soon, the deal to lower US tariffs on Switzerland from 39% to 15% would leave Swiss exporters paying the lowest US average tariff rate of any major economy, at around 7%... 17th November 2025 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Early current account warning signs in a few EMs Emerging economies’ external positions generally look strong. But current account deficits are starting to widen in a handful of countries in Latin America as well as in the Philippines and Poland... 17th November 2025 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus What’s behind the weakness in Polish inflation? The surprising softness in Polish inflation this year can be explained partly by lower energy inflation, but also by steep declines in the prices of some durable goods. The latter probably won’t last... 17th November 2025 · 12 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Swiss Flash GDP (Q3 2025) The 0.5% q/q fall in GDP in Q3 shows that US trade policies have been much more disruptive for Switzerland than was anticipated. But a deal agreed last Friday will reduce the tariff on Swiss exports... 17th November 2025 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Tech share kerfuffle continues, Gilt debacle déjà vu The renewed sell-off in US tech stocks last week puts even more of a spotlight on the earnings report of AI-bellwether Nvidia this Wednesday: it will set the tone for the wider tech sector over the... 17th November 2025 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia GDP (Q3) & Consumer Prices (Oct.) The slowdown in Russian GDP growth in Q3, to 0.6% y/y, confirms that the war and high interest rates are continuing to take their toll on activity, and the latest US sanctions on the energy sector... 14th November 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Orban enters election mode Pre-election fiscal loosening is in full swing in Hungary and, with four months still to go until voting, the risk is that more giveaways are announced, which pushes risk premia on public debt even... 14th November 2025 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Risks tilted towards a bigger hit to GDP from UK Budget The risk that the Budget could prove detrimental for GDP has only been heightened by the news that the Chancellor has reportedly decided not to raise income tax in favour of a shopping list of smaller... 14th November 2025 · 9 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly France delays pension reform; Swiss-US talks The narrowing in the spread on French government bonds over the past month may reflect the fact that France has avoided early elections for now and the latest economic data have been quite strong. But... 14th November 2025 · 6 mins read
Europe Rapid Response EZ GDP (2nd est.) & Employment (Q3) Data released today confirm that economic growth in the euro-zone picked up in Q3 but remained fairly subdued and that the labour market is cooling. We expect growth to remain sluggish and the labour... 14th November 2025 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of the outperformance of European equities Despite outperforming so far this week, we suspect equities in Europe will ultimately fall behind their peers in the US again through the end of 2026. 13th November 2025 · 4 mins read
