Europe Economics Update ECB Bank Lending Survey (Q3 2025) The ECB’s latest Bank Lending Survey, published this morning, suggested that mortgage demand in the euro-zone continues to be strong. But households remain reluctant to borrow to boost their... 28th October 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Outlook Possible tax rises a further headwind to housing Due to our view that lingering fiscal concerns will mean gilt yields and therefore mortgage rates will fall by less than we previously thought, we now expect house prices in the year to Q4 to rise by... 27th October 2025 · 17 mins read
Asset Allocation Update France’s stock market likely to remain a laggard France’s financial markets have been under the cosh for much of 2025, as political gridlock in parliament has kept the door revolving at the Matignon. Equities have not gone unscathed, with the bond... 27th October 2025 · 6 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Germany Ifo Survey (October 2025) The pick-up in the German Ifo chimes with that in the Composite PMI released on Friday and suggests that the German economy may be past the worst. This would be in line with our view that economy will... 27th October 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Pressure on Russia ramps up as Trump loses patience The US sanctions on Russia’s energy sector announced this week, if enforced stringently, have the potential to significantly raise the cost for Russia of continuing the war in Ukraine. But Putin’s... 24th October 2025 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Door nudges open for BoE, but window shut for Chancellor The past two weeks have boosted our confidence in our long-held forecasts that inflation and interest rates will fall further than most expect next year. And while September’s surprisingly soft... 24th October 2025 · 5 mins read
Commodities Weekly Market scepticism over fresh sanctions on Russian oil While the threat of fresh US sanctions on Russian oil producers drove crude prices up by ~8% this week, market participants appear to be treating the risk with a degree of scepticism. That leaves the... 24th October 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Tensions simmering between the EU and China Tensions between the EU and China over rare earths and semiconductors, which continued to simmer this week, could weigh on euro-zone industry, particularly the defence and auto sectors. Next week, the... 24th October 2025 · 10 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia Interest Rate Announcement (Oct.) The decision by the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) to slow the pace of its easing cycle today with a 50bp cut in its policy rate, to 16.50%, was pinned largely on the inflationary impact of the upcoming... 24th October 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK S&P Global Flash PMIs (Oct. 2025) October’s flash PMIs suggest that the economy continued to muddle through at the start of Q4 and the upside risks to inflation faded a bit further. This probably won’t prompt the Bank of England to... 24th October 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (October 2025) October’s flash PMIs suggest that the euro-zone economy may have picked up a bit at the start of the fourth quarter, although we suspect that growth will probably remain low at around 0.2% q/q. 24th October 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Retail Sales (Sep. 2025) The 0.5% m/m rise in retail sales volumes in September was much better than expected (consensus forecast -0.2% m/m, CE -1.2% m/m) and meant sales rose for the fourth month in a row and by 0.9% q/q in... 24th October 2025 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update US sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil up the ante On the face of it, the announcement of sanctions by the US on Rosneft and Lukoil is a major escalation in the targeting of Russia’s energy sector and could be a big enough shock to flip the global oil... 23rd October 2025 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Oct. 2025) Capital inflows into EMs have held up well over the past month, largely a result of strong flows into equity markets (Korea in particular). While we expect EM currencies to depreciate over the next... 23rd October 2025 · 0 mins read
ECB Watch ECB Watch: Still in a good place The ECB will leave the deposit rate unchanged at 2.0% next week and we expect Christine Lagarde to repeat that monetary policy is in a “good place”. She might also suggest that the next move in... 23rd October 2025 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Interest Rate Announcement (Oct. 2025) The decision by the Turkish central bank (CBRT) to further slow the pace of its easing cycle today with a 100bp cut to its one-week repo rate, to 39.50%, seems to reflect policymakers’ growing... 23rd October 2025 · 2 mins read
