Europe Rapid Response Swiss Flash GDP (Q3 2024) Economic growth was surprisingly slow in the third quarter as sporting event-adjusted GDP increased by just 0.2% q/q, a sharp slowdown from the 0.5% recorded in Q2. This will further encourage the SNB... 15th November 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK GDP (Sep. & Q3 2024) The 0.1% m/m contraction in GDP in September meant that the economy still grew by 0.1% q/q in Q3 (consensus and CE forecasts 0.2% q/q), but at a snail’s pace. However, this doesn’t mean the UK is on... 15th November 2024 · 5 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Shout it from the rooftops, CRE pricing has troughed It is increasingly clear to us that pricing in all three regions we forecast has bottomed, even if appraisals are yet to reflect that in mainland Europe and the US. And although we expect recent... 14th November 2024 · 4 mins read
Climate Economics Update One US deficit that won’t worry Trump President-elect Trump’s distaste for trade deficits surely does not extend to worrying about the US’s large-scale import of carbon emissions through trade flows. The global imbalance between importers... 14th November 2024 · 3 mins read
Bonds Update What to make of shrinking swap spreads in Germany We wouldn’t read much into the recent contraction in swap spreads in Germany. Despite turning negative, the 10-year euro-zone OIS/Bund spread is not far below its level before the pandemic. And it... 14th November 2024 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Update Trump Tariffs, retaliation, concessions and trade deals This report was originally published on 14th November 2024. President Trump’s decision to impose tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China raises the risk that at some point the UK will also be subject to... 14th November 2024 · 9 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Trump and the war in Ukraine Donald Trump’s re-election has changed perceptions of how the war in Ukraine will develop, with many hoping for a quicker end to the conflict. This Update looks at how the war might evolve and the... 14th November 2024 · 8 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Slower rate cuts won’t prevent solid house price gains Our forecast that Bank Rate will fall slower means that we now think mortgage rates will decline from 4.4% now to 3.9% by the end of 2026, rather than to 3.5%. But we still think that mortgage rates... 14th November 2024 · 5 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Consensus still expect office rent slowdown, CE more upbeat The strength of prime office rent growth in Europe in recent years has surprised forecasters, however there is broad agreement that rental growth will slow next year. We share that view, but are less... 14th November 2024 · 4 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone GDP (2nd est.), Employment (Q3) & Industrial Production (September) The pick-up in euro-zone GDP growth to 0.4% q/q in Q3 is unlikely to be sustained. Timelier business and consumer surveys suggest that growth will slow in Q4, and we expect it to remain subdued next... 14th November 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland GDP (Q3 2024) The 0.2% q/q contraction in Polish GDP in Q3 partly reflects the impact of flooding in September, the impact of which will reverse this quarter. Even so, we have become a bit more concerned about... 14th November 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Update RICS Residential Market Survey (Oct. 2024) October’s RICS survey points to robust house price growth but the Budget means that mortgages rates will probably fall a bit slower than we previously thought, which will restrain house prices next... 14th November 2024 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia GDP (Q3) & Consumer Prices (Oct.) The slowdown in Russian GDP growth in Q3, to 3.1% y/y, is likely to be followed by a further loss of momentum over the coming quarters. But, alongside CPI data which show that inflationary pressures... 13th November 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Tariff threat to German auto sector another headwind In light of the US imposing an additional 25% tariff on auto imports, we're resending this note from last November which looks at the impact of US auto tariffs on the euro-zone. The key point is that... 13th November 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update The costs of Spain’s floods and future climate events The recent floods in Spain have inflicted huge personal and financial costs. But in terms of GDP, the effect is likely to be quite small as the temporary loss in activity will probably be offset by... 12th November 2024 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Labour Market (Sep. 2024) Even though the rise in pay growth in September will probably be followed by a bigger gain in October, as the new 5-6% public sector pay deals start, the easing in private sector regular pay growth... 12th November 2024 · 3 mins read
