Emerging Europe Economics Update Thoughts on Hungary’s incoming geopolitical reset The incoming Tisza government is likely to realign Hungary’s foreign policy stance towards the EU, but economic pragmatism will mean that ties with Russia (energy) and China (FDI) adjust only... 15th April 2026 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Making sense of rate expectations Despite apparent contradictions between market pricing and consensus surveys when it comes to interest rate expectations, both seem consistent with a relatively “adverse” outcome to the war. That... 15th April 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update UK banks keen to lend despite Iran war uncertainty Despite the uncertainty from the Iran war, banks are still willing to lend to commercial property. A sizeable share plan on loosening credit conditions further in Q2, supported by a positive view on... 14th April 2026 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Is Orbánomics to blame for Hungary’s economic woes? The economic policy mix of the outgoing government of Viktor Orbán can partly explain the underperformance of Hungary’s economy over the past few years. And the change of government and the prospect... 14th April 2026 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Key deadlines facing Hungary’s new government The incoming Tisza government inherits a mix of domestic support measures due to expire in the coming month and hard EU funding deadlines that it will need to act upon quickly. The most important... 14th April 2026 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Putting the euro-zone’s energy price shock in context In our baseline scenario, the euro-zone’s energy import bill rises by 0.4% of GDP this year, which is not unusually high. In our adverse scenario it increases by three times this amount, which is high... 14th April 2026 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Further gains in Hungary’s markets may be harder to come by Hungary’s election result has been well received by markets, but further gains may be more limited and conditional on concrete results. 14th April 2026 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary’s election: your questions answered This Update answers the questions that we received during our Drop-in on Hungary’s election result. (An on-demand recording is available here.) The primary implication of the opposition Tisza party’s... 13th April 2026 · 6 mins read
Global Commercial Property Chart Pack Global Commercial Property Chartpack (Q1 2026) The rise in economic uncertainty and market interest rates because of the Iran war will weigh on property market activity in the first half of the year. However, under our baseline scenario (in which... 13th April 2026 · 0 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Hungary’s Parliamentary Election (2026, Early Results) Victory for the opposition Tisza party, and what appears to be a supermajority, represents the best-case scenario for Hungary’s macroeconomic outlook. Markets are likely to welcome the result and the... 12th April 2026 · 3 mins read
Global Commercial Property Update How will AI job cuts influence office demand? Tech occupations are the most exposed to the impact of AI, but that doesn’t necessarily mean that sector will see the most job losses. That said, a decline in the share of pre-lets to the sector in... 10th April 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Lower gas price forecasts, ECB to leave rates unchanged We are revising our forecast for ECB policy rates (again!) to reflect our reassessment of the outlook for European natural gas prices. In our new baseline scenario for gas prices, euro-zone inflation... 10th April 2026 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Revising down our baseline UK inflation forecasts This week we have lowered our European natural gas price forecasts in our baseline scenario. As a result, we now expect UK CPI inflation to peak at around 4.0% (4.5% previously) and UK GDP to grow by... 10th April 2026 · 9 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Orbán’s sternest challenge Hungary’s parliamentary election on Sunday could bring an end to PM Orbán’s 16-year rule and usher in a shift to a more market-friendly and EU-aligned government. But there’s still a lot of... 10th April 2026 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Interest Rate Announcement (Apr. 2026) Despite the US-Iran ceasefire and the Polish government’s interventions to curb fuel price rises, today’s decision by the MPC to leave the policy rate on hold at 3.75% is likely to be followed by an... 9th April 2026 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update The state of play ahead of Hungary’s election The opposition Tisza party heads into Hungary’s election this weekend as the favourite but may still fall short of the two-thirds supermajority needed to deliver deep institutional reform and unlock... 9th April 2026 · 4 mins read
