Global Economics Update Inside the latest central bank decisions We recently hosted an online Drop-In session to unpack the September meetings of major advanced economy central banks. (Recording available here.) The key takeaway was that in the US, markets seem to... 22nd September 2025 · 7 mins read
Climate Economics Update More Chinese-made green tech is heading to the EU China’s exports of the New Three are still growing at a strong pace as an increase in shipments to the EU is helping to absorb the hit from US tariffs on trade volumes. While there are signs of... 22nd September 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update German stimulus: slower and smaller than most expect Recently released details about Germany’s fiscal plans suggest that it may take until the middle of next year to ramp up spending and that less of it will go on infrastructure than initially expected... 19th September 2025 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russia’s revised fiscal rule, Czech rates, new forecasts Russia’s finance minister Anton Siluanov announced this week that the government will tighten its budget rule, setting the stage for what is likely to be broad fiscal tightening in the much... 19th September 2025 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Chancellor’s tricky fiscal situation just got trickier The combination of a likely downgrade to the Office for Budget Responsibility's productivity growth forecast in the Budget on 26th November and the further rise in borrowing costs this week adds to... 19th September 2025 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Weak start to Q3; ECB unlikely to change QT for now This week’s data show that the euro-zone economy continued to expand only slowly at the start of Q3. We forecast growth to pick up a bit in the coming quarters but not as much as the consensus expects... 19th September 2025 · 5 mins read
Commodities Weekly Fed rate cuts won’t be a major influence on commodity prices From a commodity market perspective, the fact that the US Fed is now cutting rates again would usually, all else equal, be expected to boost prices. However, weak market fundamentals and the extent of... 19th September 2025 · 4 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update IPF UK Commercial Property Consensus Forecasts The September IPF consensus survey forecasted all-property total returns of 7.9% p.a. over 2025-29. That was unchanged from May, with a downgrade to 2025 returns offset by a slight upgrade over the... 19th September 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Public Finances & Retail Sales (Aug. 2025) Today’s releases highlight the deteriorating nature of the public finances even though the economy hasn’t been terribly weak. We think this will contribute to the Chancellor having to raise around... 19th September 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update SNB to avoid negative rates… for now SNB policymakers have recently pushed back against the prospect of lowering interest rates below zero, so they are likely to leave the policy rate at zero next week. However, we think inflation will... 18th September 2025 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Update BoE unlikely to cut interest rates again this year While leaving interest rates at 4.00% today (as expected) and signalling that rates will still fall from here, the Bank of England reiterated its concerns over rising inflation. As a result, we... 18th September 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Demand for industrial property near ports should hold up The recent resilience of euro-zone trade is expected to continue in the coming quarters, which will support demand for industrial property near key ports. However, industrial demand near the ports of... 18th September 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response Bank of England Policy Announcement (18th Sep. 2025) For updated and more detailed analysis see here. While leaving interest rates at 4.00% today (as expected) and signalling that rates will still fall from here, the Bank of England reiterated its... 18th September 2025 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Stagnation in Russia, fragile recoveries in CEE The economies of Emerging Europe will diverge over the coming year as Russia’s war economy continues to run out of steam, while growth in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) picks up – albeit to varying... 18th September 2025 · 22 mins read
Commodities Focus How vulnerable are EU natural gas supplies? Although Europe’s natural gas supply is now more diverse than before the energy crisis, the fact that most of its gas is imported means it is still exposed to geopolitical and infrastructure-related... 18th September 2025 · 16 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Norges Bank Policy Announcement (September 2025) The dovish signal sent by Norges Bank’s decision to cut its policy rate by 25bp to 4.0% was accompanied by its more hawkish view on the interest rate outlook. We expect the Bank to leave interest... 18th September 2025 · 2 mins read
