Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Policymakers look to cushion the energy price shock The policy support measures announced by governments in Central and Eastern Europe to cushion households from higher energy prices should help to limit the rise in inflation over the coming months... 2nd April 2026 · 8 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Limited pricing power conducive of short-lived inflation hump The combination of limited corporate pricing power, due to the weak economic backdrop, and the softening labour market supports our view that the inevitable jump in CPI inflation in the coming months... 2nd April 2026 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Italy’s borrowing costs in the spotlight again The rise in energy prices and the slight loss of popularity of Giorgia Meloni’s government have caused Italy’s bond yields to rise more than France's since the start of the Iran conflict. We now think... 2nd April 2026 · 8 mins read
Bonds Focus The retreat from sovereign bond duration Supply/demand dynamics in long-dated sovereign debt markets are deteriorating, with demand from traditional sources waning and supply remaining strong. And now fiscal support in response to the Iran... 2nd April 2026 · 22 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Global Economics Chart pack - Iran Conflict Edition (April 2026) The impact of the surge in energy prices on the global economy will depend on the extent of any disruption to energy flows, which remains highly uncertain. Europe and Asia are more exposed than the US... 2nd April 2026 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Quantifying the indirect effects of energy on inflation Energy inflation jumped in March and in our baseline scenario it increases further, adding another half a percentage point to headline inflation this year. Firms passing on higher energy costs add a... 1st April 2026 · 3 mins read
Global Property Outlook Iran war’s property impact will be small and short-lived Given the fast-moving nature of events in Iran and the Strait of Hormuz, this global publication brings together our updated residential and commercial property market analysis and forecasts. It... 1st April 2026 · 23 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary’s frozen funds hang on a Tisza supermajority A victory for the opposition Tisza party in Hungary’s upcoming election on 12th April could open the door to the institutional reforms required to unlock frozen EU funds. But many of PM Orbán’s... 1st April 2026 · 5 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (Apr. 2026) This Europe Chart Pack builds on the analysis and scenario forecasts published in the Global Economic Outlook (see here) to provide more detail on how the Iran War could influence inflation, GDP... 31st March 2026 · 1 min read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone HICP (March) The jump in headline inflation in March was almost entirely due to higher fuel prices and tells us little about what will happen to food or core inflation in the coming months. In our baseline... 31st March 2026 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Rapid Response UK Nationwide House Prices (Mar. 2026) The big rise in the Nationwide measure of house prices in March suggests that, so far at least, house prices are proving resilient to the leap in mortgage rates since the start of the Iran war. But we... 31st March 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK GDP (Q4 2025 Final) The confirmation that real GDP grew by just 0.1% q/q in Q4 of last year is a reminder that the economic backdrop is much weaker now than the last time energy prices surged in 2022. 31st March 2026 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Mar. 2026) Our measure of EM capital flows points to larger outflows from emerging market assets since the start of the Middle East conflict than during the height of the pandemic. EM external positions are... 30th March 2026 · 0 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Israel Interest Rate Announcement (Mar. 2026) The Bank of Israel (BoI) left its policy rate unchanged at 4.00% today amid concerns about renewed inflationary and geopolitical risks. Interest rates will remain on hold at the upcoming meetings, but... 30th March 2026 · 2 mins read
Bonds Update Assessing the risks of another Gilt market meltdown Gilts have been under huge pressure since the start of the war in the Middle East and this Update sketches out how much more pressure they might come under if the war were to drag on. 30th March 2026 · 4 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone EC Survey (March 2026) March’s EC survey suggests that the jump in energy prices has had a very limited impact on activity so far, while services firms’ selling price expectations are little changed. 30th March 2026 · 2 mins read
