Europe Economics Weekly Why has the euro-zone economy kept growing? Data published this morning confirmed that euro-zone GDP continued to grow around its trend rate in Q2, despite a sharp rise in energy prices. We forecast that the energy import bill will fall back in... 14th August 2026 · 5 mins read
Commodities Weekly Setting the record “Strait”; TTF prices could remain hot While conflicting estimates of oil flows out of the Gulf have made it harder to assess the health of the global oil market, the path towards our base case for Brent crude prices to end this year at... 14th August 2026 · 4 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone GDP & Employment (Q2 2026) The euro-zone economy continued to grow around its trend rate in the second quarter, despite the rise in energy prices. We expect GDP to keep expanding at a moderate pace in the second half of the... 14th August 2026 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Swiss Flash GDP (Q2 2026) The surge in sporting event adjusted GDP in Q2 shows that the Swiss economy shrugged off the increase in energy prices. With timelier survey data looking strong too, the economy looks set to put in... 14th August 2026 · 2 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update EPC changes bad news for owners of older, large UK offices Proposed changes to energy regulations mean the required EPC rating of at least a B will be pushed back only one year, to 2031, but it will now only apply to buildings larger than 1,000 sq. m. However... 13th August 2026 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM wage pressures easing, but pockets of concern EM labour market conditions have softened further this year, with wage growth now back to or below pre-pandemic rates in many places. Inflationary pressures stemming from labour markets have faded... 13th August 2026 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update Key questions and answers on the oil product shock Gasoline and diesel prices decoupled from crude in July amid ongoing conflicts in the Middle East and Russia, limiting any relief from lower crude prices. This Update answers key questions on refined... 13th August 2026 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update Energy-intensive industrial production set to fall further Production in the euro-zone’s most energy-intensive manufacturing sectors rose in March and April, despite the jump in oil and natural gas prices. This is because firms’ gas and electricity costs did... 13th August 2026 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland GDP (Q2 2026) The acceleration in Polish GDP growth to 0.9% q/q in Q2 underscores that the economy has come through the energy shock in good health and remains an outperformer within Europe. This strong growth is... 13th August 2026 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK GDP (Jun. & Q2 2026) The 0.3% m/m rise in June and 0.4% q/q rise in Q2 (consensus & CE forecast 0.4%, BoE 0.3%) shows that the economy weathered the energy shock well in Q2. But with inflation yet to peak, we still think... 13th August 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update UK RICS Residential Market Survey (Jul. 2026) July’s RICS survey shows that the near-term housing outlook remains weak and the risks to our forecast that house prices will rise by 1.5% in the year to Q4 2026 are still skewed to the downside. But... 13th August 2026 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update Can Africa move up the commodity value chain? Governments in parts of Sub-Saharan Africa are increasingly turning to interventionist measures to boost refining of commodities. But many of the conditions to make this a success, including transport... 11th August 2026 · 4 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Investment recovery will not be pushed off course by Iran war Lower interest rates and an improving bank lending environment mean we expect euro-zone investment to pick up in H2, allowing the full-year total to rise by somewhat more than the 15% annual rate of... 11th August 2026 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey’s economy still struggling to rebalance While Turkey has come through the energy shock without major balance of payments strains, the trade-off facing policymakers between reducing inflation and restoring external balance is getting starker... 11th August 2026 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Update What taxes could Burnham raise to fund his policy ambitions? With Labour MPs unlikely to stomach big spending cuts and the markets unlikely to tolerate big increases in borrowing, higher taxes perhaps worth up to 0.8% of GDP may do the heavy lifting in funding... 10th August 2026 · 5 mins read
