UK Economics Rapid Response UK Public Finances (Apr. 2025) April’s public finances figures showed that despite the boost from the rise in employers’ National Insurance Contributions (NICs), the fiscal year got off to a poor start. This raises the chances that... 22nd May 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Consumer Prices (Apr. 2025) The bigger-than-expected jump in CPI inflation in April suggests that the persistence of inflation is a bit stronger and/or businesses are passing on more of the recent rises in taxes than we thought... 21st May 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Outlook UK Commercial Property Outlook: Property insulated from tariffs but recovery weak UK commercial property is relatively well insulated from the direct impact of US tariffs, and some sectors may even see small benefits. Rental growth has also held up better than expected. But with... 20th May 2025 · 26 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Expansion & integration: the future of EU enlargement The push to enlarge the EU has gained momentum since the start of Russia’s war in Ukraine, but accession progress is likely to be slower than many expect. While some candidate countries stand a good... 20th May 2025 · 32 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Frankfurt rent surge will not stop a wider slowdown German office rents made stronger than expected gains in 2025 Q1. But not all markets were moving in line, with Frankfurt’s buoyancy a stark contrast to other cities. While that suggests risks remain... 20th May 2025 · 6 mins read
Climate Economics Update EU faces “difficult second album” syndrome with ETS2 By seeking to extend the “polluter pays” principle to building owners and road users, the ‘sequel’ to the EU’s Emissions Trading Scheme was always likely to run into public and political opposition... 19th May 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update A deep dive into April's euro-zone inflation data April’s surprisingly large jump in services inflation appears to have been entirely an Easter timing effect that will reverse in May. Meanwhile, there are some near-term upside risks to headline... 19th May 2025 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romania & Poland Presidential Election Results The unexpected victory for centrist candidate, Nicusor Dan, in the second round of Romania’s presidential election on Sunday marks a major comeback against the far-right, and will ease concerns about... 19th May 2025 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia GDP (Q1 2025) & Consumer Prices (Apr.) The sharp slowdown in Russian GDP growth from 4.5% y/y in Q4 to 1.4% in Q1 is consistent with a sharp fall in output and suggests that the economy may be heading for a much harder landing than we had... 16th May 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Europe Weekly: Is the EU at back of the queue for a trade “deal”? We suspect that the US and EU will reach an agreement to avert the 20% baseline US tariff which is scheduled to come into effect on 9th July - but we doubt that such an agreement is imminent... 16th May 2025 · 8 mins read
UK Economics Weekly UK Weekly: EU reset + migration policy = no change to GDP growth The upcoming UK-EU reset may boost the UK’s long-term economic growth rate by something like 0.1%. But the government’s new migration policies may reduce it by something like 0.1%. So what the... 16th May 2025 · 9 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Romania Interest Rate Announcement (May) The National Bank of Romania (NBR) highlighted concerns with the uncertain political backdrop and recent pressure on the currency when leaving its policy rate on hold today, at 6.50%. We now think... 16th May 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Emerging Europe Weekly: Romania and Poland at crossroads The polls ahead of presidential elections in Romania and Poland this Sunday point to diverging political paths for the two largest economies in Central and Eastern Europe over the coming years. A... 16th May 2025 · 6 mins read
Bonds & Equities Three key questions on the outlook for Europe’s financial markets European markets have had a strong start to the year, and we are cautiously optimistic about the outlook over the next couple of years. We think European equities have turned a corner, while euro-zone... 15th May 2025 · 5 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Valuation Monitor Europe Commercial Property Valuation Monitor (Q2 2025) Commercial property valuations worsened in Q1 this year as alternative asset yields rose while prime property yields edged slightly lower. Looking ahead, we think there is limited scope for falls in... 15th May 2025 · 0 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response CEE GDP (Q1 2025) The Q1 GDP data released in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) today confirmed that growth slowed across the region ahead of the introduction of US tariffs. That said, Poland’s relatively strong... 15th May 2025 · 2 mins read
