Europe Rapid Response Germany Ifo Survey (February 2026) Although the German Ifo remained quite weak in February, we still think economic conditions in Germany are improving. And for now at least, it seems mostly likely that the US Supreme Court ruling and... 23rd February 2026 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Four years of war: stagnation grips Russia’s economy Russia’s economy has proven remarkably resilient since the war in Ukraine began four years ago, underpinned by military-related stimulus, an ability to adapt to Western sanctions and disciplined... 23rd February 2026 · 15 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Youth unemployment cyclical not structural...for now Labour market data published this week has raised valid concerns about a structural rise in youth unemployment. But while it is too early to rule that out, the rise so far is not that much more than... 20th February 2026 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Wage growth slowing, what next for Lagarde? February's PMIs showed an increase in price pressures, but we suspect that this reflects higher oil prices as other indicators suggest that wage growth has continued to slow. We expect a further... 20th February 2026 · 7 mins read
Commodities Weekly Oil: geopolitics is the name of the game; what to make of it? Oil prices have firmly been in the grips of a geopolitical maelstrom this week, as tensions between the US and Iran have escalated once more. The price of Brent crude has risen by around 5% on the... 20th February 2026 · 5 mins read
Event Europe Drop-In: Are we too bearish on the euro-zone outlook? 26th February 2026, 3:00PM GMT Signs of life in the euro-zone economy have sparked hopes that a meaningful recovery may finally be underway. But our growth forecasts for this year and next remain below consensus.
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly BoI meeting amid Iran tensions, CEE rates, Rubio’s visit Data out of Israel over the past week have increased the probability that the Bank of Israel (BoI) will cut interest rates at its meeting next Monday, but the decision may depend on how tensions with... 20th February 2026 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK S&P Global Flash PMIs (Feb. 2026) February’s flash PMIs provides further signs of an encouraging start to the year for economic activity and suggests that inflationary pressures in the services sector increased a bit further. While we... 20th February 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone flash PMIs (February) February’s flash PMIs support the view that activity in the euro-zone economy is growing at a reasonable pace, led by a pick-up in Germany, and that price pressures remain too high for the ECB to... 20th February 2026 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Public Finances & Retail Sales (Jan. 2026) The big reduction in public borrowing and surge in retail sales in January support other evidence that the economy started the year looking a lot healthier. This will give the Chancellor something... 20th February 2026 · 3 mins read
Event Drop-In: The Fed, ECB and BoE March meetings and the policy outlook 19th March 2026, 3:00PM GMT Are inflation and labour market dynamics putting expectations for more Fed easing at risk? Does cooling inflation clear the way for the Bank of England to cut again?
Europe Economics Update Switzerland to lead Europe on AI While we think it will take several years before AI has a meaningful impact on Europe’s economies, Switzerland may be an exception. There is already some evidence of a positive boost from AI. And we... 19th February 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update EZ housebuilding subdued, civil engineering growing There is likely to be an increase in civil engineering activity in the euro-zone this year as Germany’s government boosts infrastructure spending. However, we think that this boost will be smaller... 19th February 2026 · 2 mins read
Climate Economics Update Carbon capture only a stopgap for fossil fuel emissions Carbon capture technologies are often put forward as a solution to lowering emissions from hard-to-abate sectors, but given the high costs involved, their uptake has been slow. This Update addresses... 19th February 2026 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Inflation points to lower Gilt yields, even if politics doesn’t We now think that the Bank of England will cut interest rates in March, and continue to think it will take rates lower than investors expect this cycle. So, despite politics putting some upwards... 18th February 2026 · 3 mins read
Global Commercial Property Update Supply cuts won’t spark immediate logistics recovery Global new industrial supply has been contracting rapidly, hitting its lowest level in a decade as developers pull back. However, we expect demand to fall short of supply again this year, delaying a... 18th February 2026 · 3 mins read
