Commodities Update Grain prices won’t plummet if war in Ukraine ends Russia’s invasion of Ukraine caused grain prices to surge to record levels in 2022, but a peace deal won’t lead to large falls in prices. This is mainly because Ukrainian grain production has already... 27th May 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Focus The implications of lower quality UK economic data Today’s announcement by the ONS that a data error meant CPI inflation in April should have been 3.4% rather than the published rate of 3.5% means that inflation was broadly in line with the Bank of... 27th May 2025 · 20 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Residential in the UK and the Netherlands to outperform European residential property outperformed all-property for the third consecutive year in 2024 and our updated forecasts suggest that this will continue over the coming five years. Returns were... 27th May 2025 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Emerging Europe Weekly: A brief sigh of relief in Romania, CEE wage growth Nicusor Dan's victory in Romania’s presidential election on Sunday triggered a relief rally in the country’s financial markets, but we think it is difficult to take an optimistic view on the outlook... 23rd May 2025 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Europe Weekly: Disagreement at the ECB but more cuts to come Data released this week – and Donald Trump’s latest threat of imposing a 50% tariff on imports from the EU – reinforce our view that the ECB will cut interest rates in June and loosen policy further... 23rd May 2025 · 7 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Trump threat of 50% tariffs President Trump’s threat of a 50% tariff from 1 st June may well turn out to be a negotiating tactic and seems very unlikely to be where tariffs settle over the long run. But if it were implemented it... 23rd May 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Weekly UK Weekly: Inflation higher for longer; further tax rises incoming The prospect of higher inflation for longer raises the chances of interest rates falling slower than we expect. Together with the government's announcements this week on the public sector pay rises... 23rd May 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Focus Fiscal stimulus won’t fix Germany’s economy Germany’s historic shift to looser fiscal policy will give the economy a boost over the next couple of years, but we think growth will then slow, deindustrialisation will continue, and real income... 23rd May 2025 · 16 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Retail Sales (Apr. 2025) Although for the first time since 2015, excluding the pandemic, retail sales volumes have risen for four months in a row, April’s impressive 1.2% m/m rise was largely driven by the unusually warm... 23rd May 2025 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Israel-Iran, Egypt’s MPR, Morocco secures UAE investment Rumours that Israel could strike Iran’s nuclear facilities suggest that conflict in the region could escalate. But there are reasons to think that the fallout for the oil market, and therefore the... 22nd May 2025 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (May 2025) Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The economies of Central and Eastern Europe have lost momentum over the course of 2025 and... 22nd May 2025 · 1 min read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (May 2025) The euro-zone’s flash PMIs for May suggest that manufacturing output continues to be supported by the front-running of US tariffs. But the bigger picture is that the services sector weakened... 22nd May 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK S&P Global Flash PMIs (May 2025) Despite the modest rebound in the composite activity PMI in May, at face value it is consistent with the bumper 0.7% q/q rise in GDP in Q1 being followed by a 0.2% q/q fall in Q2. But signs of some... 22nd May 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack (Q2 2025) Weaker rental growth and only a small fall in prime yields meant capital value growth slowed in Q1 in most of Europe. Looking ahead, while most European commercial property assets are not directly... 22nd May 2025 · 0 mins read
