UK Economics Update Soft UK consumer spending in Q4 a sign of things to come A slew of data released in the first couple of weeks of the year suggests that retailers had a disappointing so-called “Golden Quarter”. We suspect this is a sign of things to come and forecast that... 15th January 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Focus How long will Portugal’s outperformance last? Portugal’s economy has benefited from a series of favourable developments in recent years, causing it to outperform most other euro-zone countries. We think this will continue over the next couple of... 15th January 2026 · 14 mins read
Bonds Update Fiscal sleight-of-hand may help push Gilt yields lower The government’s ongoing efforts to shorten its debt issuance mix is likely helping to address the demand/supply imbalance in the Gilt market and easing upward pressure on longer-dated Gilt yields... 15th January 2026 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone industry is in structural decline Euro-zone industrial production rose in November, and the outlook for certain sectors – such as defence and pharmaceuticals – is fairly bright. But overall, industry is likely to remain weak and it... 15th January 2026 · 5 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Germany's GDP (2025) The first estimate of annual GDP for 2025 confirms that Germany’s much-vaunted fiscal “stimulus” did not get underway last year and that economic activity remained broadly stagnant. We think things... 15th January 2026 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK GDP (Nov. 2025) The 0.3% m/m rebound in real GDP in November (consensus and CE forecast 0.1% m/m) suggests the economy is heading into 2026 with a bit more momentum than we thought. But with the economy still... 15th January 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update UK RICS Residential Market Survey (Dec. 2025) The continued weakness in buyer sentiment, the further rise in the supply of homes for sale and the softening in rental demand recorded by the RICS survey in December implies that the risks to our... 15th January 2026 · 3 mins read
Climate Economics Update A closer look at the UK’s renewable auction “success” The ~8GW of renewable generating capacity procured at the UK government’s latest energy auction could help to lift renewables’ share in the UK’s energy mix to over 70% by 2030, and underlines the UK’s... 14th January 2026 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Bulgaria’s slow euro-zone convergence to continue Bulgaria has become the latest but also the poorest member of the single currency area following its euro adoption at the start of the year. GDP per capita should continue to converge with Western... 14th January 2026 · 17 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Interest Rate Announcement (Jan.) The decision by the National Bank of Poland to leave its policy rate on hold today, at 4.00%, is likely to mark a temporary pause in the easing cycle, and we expect two further 25bp cuts over the... 14th January 2026 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Focus Pensions & public finances: not just a French problem Far from being only a French problem, pensions will be a growing fiscal headache in all the major euro-zone countries in the coming decade as populations age. In France and Italy, this will add to the... 14th January 2026 · 24 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update High valuations challenge the Paris prime office market A weak overall office market in Paris has pushed investor demand to prime assets, leaving valuations highly stretched. Nevertheless, our relatively positive prime rental forecast means that Paris... 13th January 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Get ready for a big fall in UK inflation to 2.0% We think April’s inflation data (released on 20th May) will reveal that, after spending almost five years above target, CPI inflation has finally fallen to 2.0%. This would be below the consensus... 12th January 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (January 2026) We expect euro-zone GDP to increase at a moderate pace this year and next. Germany’s fiscal stimulus is likely to be smaller, slower and less effective than many expect, while growth will be stronger... 12th January 2026 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Ukraine’s security, Venezuela spillovers, CPI data The US and Europe appeared to move closer to an agreement on providing security guarantees to post-war Ukraine this week, but Russia is unlikely to be on board with the terms of the proposed... 9th January 2026 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Public sector pay not an obstacle to further BoE rate cuts We expect the striking gap between public and private sector pay growth in October to narrow in the coming months. But even if political pressure on the government means public sector pay growth is... 9th January 2026 · 7 mins read
