UK Economics Update Spending pressures to lead to higher UK taxes and borrowing U-turns on benefit and welfare spending, increased pressure to ramp up defence spending and higher borrowing costs have left the Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, in a sticky position. If she wishes to avoid... 29th May 2025 · 7 mins read
Climate Economics Update EU carbon market surplus keeps prices in check The surplus in the EU carbon market dampened incentives to decarbonise in 2024, and the likelihood that the surplus is maintained until 2027 will keep a lid on carbon prices in the near term. Further... 29th May 2025 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (May 2025) Capital inflows into EMs have been resurgent over the past few weeks amid a broad improvement in global risk appetite. But while our base case is that EM markets eke out further gains, the range of... 29th May 2025 · 0 mins read
ECB Watch ECB Watch: At least one more ECB rate cut to come A 25bp interest rate cut next week, taking the deposit rate to 2.0%, looks very likely. But divisions are growing on the ECB about the impact of US trade policy on inflation and therefore the... 29th May 2025 · 8 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Softening in UK housing market will only be temporary Leading indicators suggest most of the recent weakness in housing demand and prices is due to the temporary influence of the change in stamp duty rather than any longer-lasting influence of the softer... 29th May 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Europe-US trade talks after the US court ruling Yesterday’s US court ruling has added yet more uncertainty to the EU-US trade relationship and at face value has weakened President Trump’s position. But the risk of tariffs remains very real not... 29th May 2025 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update The implications of the US court ruling on tariffs In this Update, we answer several key questions about how the US Court of International Trade tariff ruling might affect the US and other economies. The outlook may now rest on the decision of the... 29th May 2025 · 7 mins read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack UK Housing Market Chart Pack (May 2025) We suspect most of the recent weakness in housing demand and prices is due to the temporary influence of the rise in stamp duty on 1st April rather than any longer-lasting influence from the softer... 29th May 2025 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus ECB strategy review not just a formality The ECB’s forthcoming assessment of its 2021 strategy review won’t lead to immediate policy changes but we think it will commit policymakers to acting differently in future. They are likely to be more... 28th May 2025 · 12 mins read
India Economics Update India will leave Japan (and Germany) trailing in its wake Debate around whether or not India’s economy has surpassed Japan’s in size is raging, but the big picture is that India was always going to overtake Japan – and also Germany – given its positive... 28th May 2025 · 3 mins read
Global Commercial Property Focus What COVID-19 means for real estate out to 2030 and beyond The pandemic is firmly in our collective rear-view mirrors, but five years on, its effects continue to drive real estate performance differentials. We expect it to remain integral to driving winners... 28th May 2025 · 15 mins read
Europe Economics Update Is one policy rate appropriate for all of the euro-zone? For most of the time since the euro was established, the ECB’s “one size fits all” interest rate policy was a major problem for the single currency area. It contributed to imbalances between countries... 27th May 2025 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response CEE Economic Sentiment Indicators (May) The European Commission's Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe suggest that pockets of the region are starting to feel the bite from US tariffs, but that overall regional GDP... 27th May 2025 · 1 min read
Europe Rapid Response EC Survey (May 2025) May’s euro-zone business and consumer survey from the European Commission shows a small improvement in sentiment, but the data are still consistent with the economy struggling. And the price... 27th May 2025 · 3 mins read
