Europe Commercial Property Update Euro-zone CRE investment outlook still gloomy After a strong Q4, a shaky start to 2025 has highlighted the fragility of the recovery in euro-zone commercial real estate investment. We still expect transaction volumes to rise over the remainder of... 11th February 2025 · 5 mins read
Equities Update Tariffs, the federal election, and German equities We expect equities in Germany to underperform those in other major developed markets in the coming year or so because German firms are more exposed to the increase in protectionism which appears to be... 11th February 2025 · 4 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Rental supply to remain tight While it is possible that a fall in mortgage rates will trigger a modest increase in the number of rental properties over the next two years, we doubt this will offset the weakness in rental supply... 11th February 2025 · 4 mins read
Commodities Chart Pack Commodities Chart Pack (February 2025) Trump’s curveballs have limited sway in oil markets With oil prices back to where they were at the start of the year, the oil market has offered a collective shrug to the geopolitical curveballs... 10th February 2025 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (Feb. 2025) We expect the euro-zone economy to grow at only a sluggish pace this year, with southern economies outperforming the core. Germany’s election will lead to only a modest loosening of its restrictive... 10th February 2025 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Will new London office supply run dry from 2027? The Central London office pipeline looks set to go from feast to famine over the next few years, with a sharp drop in planned completions from 2027. But we doubt new office supply will run dry... 10th February 2025 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Weekly UK Weekly: Doubting the Bank’s higher inflation forecast We doubt inflation will rise as far as the Bank of England’s new forecast suggests. The Bank's dovish tilt when it cut interest rates this week suggests it isn't putting too much weight on its own... 7th February 2025 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Emerging Europe Weekly: Hawks flying in CEE, growing pressure on the CBR? Communications from central banks in Poland and Czechia this week were both on the hawkish side, but we expect a continued divergence in monetary policy over the coming year as interest rates remain... 7th February 2025 · 5 mins read
Event Commodities Drop-In: Trump, tariffs and the commodities markets impact 1739458800 Tariffs on energy suppliers. Tariffs on metals suppliers. A push to end the Ukraine war. A National Energy Emergency. Less than one month in.
Commodities Weekly Commodities Weekly: Frothy coffee?; EU gas woe; "Max pressure", little impact While the steady upward grind in EU natural gas prices has been less spectacular than the recent hockey stick-shaped surge in the price of arabica coffee beans, the doubling in EU gas prices since... 7th February 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Europe Weekly: Euro-zone wage growth set to ease significantly Despite the focus on r* recently at the ECB, we think that wage inflation will be a more important guide for monetary policy. And the ECB’s wage tracker released earlier this week suggests that wage... 7th February 2025 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Update Estimates of neutral policy rate won’t tie ECB’s hands Comparing the ECB’s deposit rate to estimates of its equilibrium level suggests that monetary policy will soon be only slightly restrictive. But there is a huge amount of uncertainty around these... 7th February 2025 · 4 mins read
Event Drop-In: German election 2025 – The new government’s domestic and global challenges 1740391200 Will the federal election outcome bring any clarity to Germany’s existential economic and political questions?
UK Housing Market Rapid Response UK Halifax House Prices (Jan. 2025) The 0.7% m/m rise in the Halifax house price index in January is at odds with the muted 0.1% m/m increase in the Nationwide measure and suggests that the housing market continues to shrug off both the... 7th February 2025 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Gilt yields likely to fall and weigh on the pound We expect the Bank of England to cut faster and further than investors expect, pushing Gilt yields down and in turn weighing on the pound. 6th February 2025 · 5 mins read
Equities Update UK equities may underperform despite tariff insulation The UK stock market appears to be riding high – the FTSE 100 has hit a record high. But local-currency returns from UK equities have been flattered by a weaker pound. In common-currency terms, UK... 6th February 2025 · 5 mins read
