Emerging Europe Economics Update The Trump-Putin meeting & implications for the Ukraine war The announcement that Presidents Trump and Putin will meet in Alaska on Friday has increased the possibility of a scenario in which the Ukraine war ends on terms favourable to Russia. That could... 11th August 2025 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Weekly UK Weekly: A higher bar for further UK interest rate cuts In some ways, the Bank of England’s hawkish tone at its policy meeting on Thursday makes sense. However, it’s striking just how little weight the Bank is placing on the downside risks to inflation. We... 8th August 2025 · 9 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Romania Interest Rate Announcement (Aug.) The National Bank of Romania (NBR) left its policy rate on hold today, at 6.50%, as expected, and its communications suggest a restart of the easing cycle remains some way off. We expect rates to... 8th August 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Europe Weekly: More US tariff threats; construction sector Provided it stands the test of time, the deal agreed between the US and EU means that the bloc should be exempt from the 100% tariff that President Trump has threatened on semiconductor imports, as... 8th August 2025 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Emerging Europe Weekly: Trump-Putin meeting, chip tariffs, hawkish CNB The touted Trump-Putin meeting next week has re-focused attention on efforts to bring the war in Ukraine to an end, but we are sceptical much will be achieved given Putin’s maximalist territorial... 8th August 2025 · 8 mins read
Capital Daily We still expect the BoE to cut further and gilt yields to fall The surprisingly hawkish tone struck by the Bank of England today has increased the chances it will slow down the pace of rate cuts from one per quarter. But our view remains that Bank Rate will be... 7th August 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update US tariffs just one of German carmakers’ problems German carmakers’ recent disappointing earnings reports are as much about their continued struggles in China as US tariffs. And though sales in Europe have been more encouraging recently, that is... 7th August 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Norges Bank easing cycle will be slow and short Next week, we expect Norges Bank to leave the policy rate unchanged at 4.25% but reiterate that it is likely to loosen policy later this year. We forecast two 25bp cuts by year-end. 7th August 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Valuation Monitor UK Commercial Property Valuation Monitor (Q3 25) Property valuations were unchanged in Q2, with both property and alternative asset yields steady over the quarter. 7th August 2025 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Rates cut to 4.00%, but BoE appears in no rush to cut again soon Although the Bank of England cut interest rates today by 25 basis points (bps), from 4.25% to 4.00%, it showed some signs that it may cut rates slower and/or not as far as our forecast of a decline to... 7th August 2025 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response Bank of England Policy Announcement (7th Aug. 2025) Although the Bank of England cut interest rates today by 25 basis points (bps), from 4.25% to 4.00%, it showed some signs that it may cut rates slower and/or not as far as our forecast of a decline to... 7th August 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (Aug. 2025) Economic growth has been fairly resilient to tariffs so far and, as long as tariffs stay around the 15% agreed in the EU-US trade deal, the hit to activity should be small. But growth will be sluggish... 7th August 2025 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Swedish residential property to outperform Europe again Swedish residential total returns have underperformed the European average over the past three years, but a bright rental outlook in particular means we think returns will slightly outperform Europe... 7th August 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Rapid Response German Industrial Production (June) The sharp drop in German industrial production in June and the big downward revision to the figures for May mean that, rather than holding up well in the face of tariffs as the data previously... 7th August 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Rapid Response UK Halifax House Prices (Jul. 2025) The rise in Halifax house prices in July provides another indication that the housing market is recovering following the end of the stamp duty holiday on 31st March. But the subdued economic backdrop... 7th August 2025 · 3 mins read
