UK Economics Chart Pack UK Economics Chart Pack (Mar. 2026) The impact of the conflict in the Middle East on energy markets and the UK economy remains highly uncertain. As things stand, we suspect the most likely scenario is one in which the conflict comes to... 12th March 2026 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Emerging Markets Chart Pack (March 2026) The conflict in the Middle East will lead to sharp falls in GDP in the Gulf economies and weigh on energy importers, especially in Asia. EM energy producers outside the Gulf will see a terms-of-trade... 12th March 2026 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update How will the UK government respond to higher energy prices? This has been updated to reflect the latest developments as well as our new Baseline and Adverse scenarios. Even in our adverse scenario, we have assumed the fiscal support for households and... 12th March 2026 · 5 mins read
ECB Watch ECB to stress readiness to respond to energy shock The ECB is not going to respond to the jump in energy prices by raising interest rates next week. But we expect it to state that the upside risks to inflation have increased, implying that the chance... 12th March 2026 · 9 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Interest Rate Announcement (Mar. 2026) Turkey’s central bank (CBRT) opted to leave interest rates unchanged today, suggesting that – for now – it deems the effective 300bp of tightening delivered via the interest rate corridor sufficient... 12th March 2026 · 2 mins read
BoE Watch BoE Watch: Delayed cuts, cancelled cuts or interest rate hikes? There are plausible scenarios in which the Middle East conflict prompts the Bank of England to delay interest rate cuts, cancel interest rate cuts or hike interest rates. As delay seems the most... 12th March 2026 · 6 mins read
UK Housing Market Update UK RICS Residential Market Survey (Feb. 2026) February’s RICS housing market survey suggests that the events in the Middle East are dampening buyer sentiment and appear to have tempered the strengthening in the housing market at the start of this... 12th March 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update IPF UK Commercial Property Consensus Forecasts (Mar. 26) The March IPF consensus survey, conducted before the Iran conflict, forecasted all-property total returns of 7.7% p.a. over 2026-30 which, aside from a downgrade to 2026, was essentially unchanged... 11th March 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update How could the Middle East conflict hit UK housing? The possibility of fewer interest rate cuts than we expect, or even rate hikes, and the possible hit to the economy from the surge in energy prices due to the conflict in the Middle East risks... 11th March 2026 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Energy shock tests Turkey’s macro stability Turkey’s economy is better placed to face the current energy price shock than it was in 2022, but it is still among the more vulnerable EMs. A temporary price spike will only have a modest effect on... 11th March 2026 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update German economy still weak despite fiscal loosening Even though fiscal policy in Germany is being loosened significantly, signs of a recovery in activity have been tentative at best. Our base case remains that activity will pick up this year but a... 11th March 2026 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Update What could the Middle East conflict mean for the UK economy? Our three scenarios show what the Middle East conflict could mean for petrol prices, utility prices, CPI inflation, GDP growth and interest rates in the UK. All of our coverage of the macro and market... 11th March 2026 · 6 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update EZ property yields unlikely to spike if conflict in Iran is short-lived Providing the conflict in Iran is short-lived, the impact on euro-zone commercial property values is likely to be small. However, a more prolonged conflict would weigh on property demand, especially... 10th March 2026 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Poland: gold reserve plan highlights fiscal pressures Proposals by Polish policymakers to use valuation gains from the central bank’s gold reserves to finance defence spending highlight the growing strain on the public finances from the large budget... 10th March 2026 · 3 mins read
Event UK Drop-In: Bank of England March meeting preview – Rate cuts after the energy shock 12th March 2026, 3:00PM GMT Uncertainty around the duration of the conflict in the Middle East is keeping energy prices near multi-year highs and threatening expectations that the Bank of England will continue cutting rates t
