UK Economics Weekly UK Weekly: Three things to watch in the Spending Review Next week’s Spending Review will shine a light on the UK’s tight fiscal position. And the Chancellor’s problems are far from over. U-turns on benefit and welfare spending and higher borrowing costs... 6th June 2025 · 9 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Europe Weekly: Tariff front-running fades, disinflation continues While policymakers at the ECB indicated this week that they may be at the end of their easing cycle, we think they will probably make one more rate cut this year, in September. Meanwhile, we agree... 6th June 2025 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia Interest Rate Announcement (June) The decision by the Central Bank of Russia to cut its policy rate by 100bp today, to 20.00%, came as a dovish surprise, and we now think the policy rate will now end this year at 17.00% (18.00%... 6th June 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update How fast will euro-zone wage growth fall? Wage growth looks set to slow from 4.5% last year to around 3% by the end of 2025, leaving it within touching distance of the 2.5% rate we think is consistent with the ECB’s inflation target. 6th June 2025 · 4 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update UK commercial property development on the road to recovery After a lean couple of years, the outlook for commercial property construction is brightening. While the economic outlook is fairly weak, vacancy rates in some subsectors such as prime offices and... 6th June 2025 · 4 mins read
UK Housing Market Rapid Response UK Halifax House Prices (May 2025) The fall back in house prices on the Halifax measure in May increases the chances that more of the recent soft patch in the housing market is due to the subdued economy than the temporary effects of... 6th June 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response German Industrial Production (April) German industrial production and export figures for April suggest that the boost to activity from US tariff front running is already reversing and that underlying industrial activity remains weak... 6th June 2025 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily ECB unlikely to drive EUR/USD any higher While the ECB cut its policy rate today, as widely expected, President Lagarde’s accompanying comments tilted hawkish and have given interest rate expectations and the euro a boost. Our view remains... 5th June 2025 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB probably has one cut left The ECB’s decision to cut the deposit rate by 25bp to 2.0% was in line with expectations and the messaging in the press conference suggests that a pause at the next meeting in July is most likely. We... 5th June 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response ECB Policy Announcement (June 2025) The ECB’s decision to cut the deposit rate by 25bp to 2.0% and give no clear signals about the future path of monetary policy was in line with expectations. We forecast one more rate cut in the second... 5th June 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Ireland GDP (Q1 2025) We think that the huge upward revision to Ireland’s Q1 GDP data this morning, to show a rapid expansion that was in large part driven by tariff front-running, will lead to euro-zone growth being... 5th June 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Rapid Response S&P Global/ CIPS UK Construction PMI (May 25) The headline CIPS construction PMI rose for the third consecutive month in May, although the rise from 46.6 to 47.9 still suggests that construction activity is contracting. Within the headline figure... 5th June 2025 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Policy turmoil starting to damage investment intentions Trade policy uncertainty has damaged investment intentions in the US, Canada, Mexico and South East Asia. But intentions elsewhere have held up better and investment growth itself has yet to falter... 4th June 2025 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Update It’s only a matter of time before UK wage growth slows According to the measures of wage growth that we consider the most useful and the fundamentals of the recent easing in the demand for labour relative to the supply, it is only a matter of time before... 4th June 2025 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Interest Rate Announcement (June) The National Bank of Poland left its policy rate on hold today, at 5.25%, but this is only likely to mark a short pause in the easing cycle. We think that interest rates will be cut again at the... 4th June 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack UK Economics Chart Pack (Jun. 2025) The strong start to the year shouldn’t be mistaken as a sign the UK economy will be able to shrug off the large rises in business taxes that took effect in April and the lingering uncertainty over US... 4th June 2025 · 1 min read
