Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Apr. 2026) Our measure of EM capital flows suggests that outflows eased over the course of this month, helped by the US-Iran ceasefire announcement. Perhaps more importantly, EM external balance sheets look... 28th April 2026 · 0 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Hungary Interest Rate Announcement (Apr. 2026) Hungary’s central bank (MNB) left its base rate unchanged at 6.25% today and, despite the rally in markets after the Tisza election victory and below-target inflation, we think renewed interest rate... 28th April 2026 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB Bank Lending & Consumer Expectations Surveys The ECB’s Q1 Bank Lending Survey (BLS) suggests that the negative effects of higher energy prices on economic activity in the euro-zone could be bigger than we have assumed. At the same time, the jump... 28th April 2026 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Election signals reset opportunity for Hungary’s real estate Hungary’s decisive election result has improved investor sentiment and medium-term economic prospects. While it is still early days, we think it will bring positive spillovers to real estate, with... 28th April 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update How far will the Iran war push up UK homebuilding costs? A renewed rise in homebuilding construction costs due to the jump in energy prices since the start of the Iran war will only further constrain homebuilders’ profits and housing starts. This poses some... 27th April 2026 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Stagflation shock not as big as businesses fear The net effect of the stream of data released this week will probably lead to some policymakers at the Bank of England worrying more about the upside risks to inflation than the downside risks to... 24th April 2026 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly What to make of the April’s weak surveys The larger-than-expected fall in euro-zone activity surveys in April challenges our view that the hit from the Iran war will be small. But the surveys have not always been a good guide to actual... 24th April 2026 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Hungary’s cabinet, political turmoil, Q1 GDP Hungary’s incoming Tisza government has made positive steps with the announcement of key cabinet posts, including foreign and finance ministers. Political developments elsewhere in the region provide... 24th April 2026 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Retail Sales (Mar. 2026) The surprisingly strong 0.7% m/m gain in retail sales volumes in March (CE forecast +0.5%, consensus +0.1%) meant that they rose by a chunky 1.6% q/q in Q1 overall. But April’s drop in consumer... 24th April 2026 · 2 mins read
BoE Watch BoE Watch: BoE to talk tough, but unlikely to deliver We expect the Bank of England to leave rates unchanged at 3.75% on Thursday 30th April. But with the data over the last month likely to have raised concerns about the risk of second-round inflation... 23rd April 2026 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Rethinking Hungary’s path to the euro The Tisza government has made euro accession a key part of its economic plans. Its goal of being ready to enter by 2030 looks optimistic given that Hungary is some way away from meeting the Maastricht... 23rd April 2026 · 9 mins read
Event Drop-In: UK outlook – Assessing macro scenarios through 2026 and beyond 7th May 2026, 3:00PM BST The UK entered 2026 already facing a challenging economic backdrop.
ECB Watch ECB will not rush into rate hikes The ECB is not going to raise its interest rates next week and policymakers are likely to say they will need to see more evidence of second-round effects on inflation before doing do. We think the... 23rd April 2026 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Equity-dollar correlation will remain strong until the war is over The inverse relationship between risky assets and the US dollar has been unusually strong over the past couple of months. That is likely to continue as long as energy supply risks remain the key... 23rd April 2026 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Israel’s cybersecurity sector and the AI challenge Rapid advances in AI capabilities will reshape Israel’s cybersecurity sector, with significant macro implications given that cyber software exports account for around 3% of GDP. AI will likely... 23rd April 2026 · 4 mins read
Global Commercial Property Update CRE construction cost rises most impactful in retail and hotels Commercial real estate construction costs are already showing signs of rising due to the Iran war. While this will weigh on profitability of new projects, the impact will vary by sector, with retail... 23rd April 2026 · 3 mins read
