UK Housing Market Update UK rental demand to cool, but it won’t collapse The surge in rental demand is over, but rental demand will probably remain stronger than pre-pandemic levels. That suggests the prop to rents growth in 2025 and 2026 from solid demand will fade only... 13th March 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update SNB’s last cut in the cycle We expect the SNB to cut its policy rate by 25bp next week to take it to 0.25% in response to the very low inflation rate early this year. But we think that will be the last cut of the cycle, as... 13th March 2025 · 4 mins read
BoE Watch BoE Watch: UK MPC not as dovish as March’s vote may suggest The Bank of England will almost certainly leave interest rates at 4.50% at the policy meeting on Thursday 20th March and this might be the second meeting in a row when the vote suggests the Bank is... 13th March 2025 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Update Riksbank to hold, risks to the upside further ahead The strong inflation data so far this year supports our view that the Riksbank has already ended its loosening cycle and will keep its policy rate at 2.25% next week. And we expect the policy... 13th March 2025 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Focus Will defence spending turbocharge economic growth? The rise in defence spending that looks likely in many countries over the next few years will boost demand and output, albeit by less than the headline-grabbing figures might suggest. Meanwhile... 13th March 2025 · 22 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (January 2025) The increase in euro-zone industrial production in January does not change the fact that output remains well below its levels prior to the energy crisis. And survey data suggest the sector will... 13th March 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Update UK RICS Residential Market Survey (Feb. 2025) February’s RICS survey suggests the downside risks to our 2025 forecasts for housing demand and prices from the weak economy continue to grow. But bigger falls in mortgage rates than most expect over... 13th March 2025 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update A fresh look at the “turnaround EMs” The policy turnarounds that have continued in Argentina, Egypt, Nigeria and Turkey have led to a sharp reduction in sovereign risk premia but have had mixed success in restoring macroeconomic... 12th March 2025 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Interest Rate Announcement (Mar.) The decision by the National Bank of Poland (NBP) to leave its policy rate on hold today, at 5.75%, was widely anticipated, but we think that interest rates will stay higher than most others expect... 12th March 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Fiscal spending shift worsens the German property outlook Events of the past week or so have worsened the outlook for German commercial property. While more government spending could marginally boost rents, the higher outlook for interest rates will outweigh... 12th March 2025 · 4 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Physical UK retail property now better able to compete with online The sharp drop in retail rents seen during the pandemic coincided with a surge in rents for distribution warehouses and, as a result, the difference between the two is at a record low. That will help... 10th March 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Focus UK Fiscal Event Preview - Spending cuts now, but defence needs may lead to higher taxes and borrowing The Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, will present her fiscal update on 26th March against the challenging backdrop of geopolitical ruptures, tariffs threats and a stagnating domestic economy. We expect... 10th March 2025 · 19 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (Mar. 2025) Higher defence and infrastructure spending will support euro-zone GDP growth late this year and in 2026. But the boost will be smaller than some are hoping for and take time to feed through. So we... 10th March 2025 · 1 min read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap FX Weekly: Taking stock of the euro’s epic rally The dollar has suffered one of its largest weekly falls on record in the wake of President Trump’s latest tariff flip-flop, continued jitters around the health of the US economy and, most importantly... 7th March 2025 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Emerging Europe Weekly: German stimulus spillovers, Ukraine aid pause The prospective fiscal stimulus announced in Germany this week could provide some support to nearby trade dependent economies in Central and Eastern Europe. But with a large part of the spending... 7th March 2025 · 7 mins read
