Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia Interest Rate Announcement (Sep.) The Central Bank of Russia opted for a smaller-than-expected 100bp cut in its policy rate today, to 17.00%, and the communications highlight policymakers’ concerns about pro-inflationary risks. Even... 12th September 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly New French PM, German “autumn of reform” Hints by France’s new prime minister that he will water down plans for budget cuts emphasise that meaningful fiscal tightening in the coming years is very unlikely and support our view that French... 12th September 2025 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK GDP (Jul. 2025) The stagnation in real GDP in July shows that the economy is still struggling to gain decent momentum in the face of the drag from previous hikes in taxes and possible further tax rises to come in the... 12th September 2025 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Euro rally still likely to stall While the euro has strengthened a bit against the dollar on the back of today’s ECB policy announcement and US inflation and jobs data, we continue to think that the euro is more likely to fall than... 11th September 2025 · 5 mins read
BoE Watch No more cuts this year, but rates to fall to 3.00% next year The Bank of England will leave interest rates at 4.00% at its policy meeting on Thursday 18th September, but may announce a bigger scaling back of quantitative tightening (QT) than most expect. Our... 11th September 2025 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB on hold, for now The ECB’s decision to leave its deposit rate unchanged at 2.0% today and offer no guidance on future rate decisions was in line with expectations. The Bank is unlikely to change interest rates again... 11th September 2025 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Why r* is still heading to 2% Recent bond market movements suggest that equilibrium real interest rates may have risen further, perhaps justified by strong AI investment and persistently high government borrowing. But some recent... 11th September 2025 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Interest Rate Announcement (Sep.) The decision by Turkey’s central bank to slow the pace of easing to 250bp didn’t come as a major surprise but the fairly hawkish communications support our view that real interest rates are likely to... 11th September 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Norges Bank will wait before cutting again Norges Bank signalled last month that it would cut interest rates later this year, but we expect it to leave policy unchanged next week. It will probably reduce interest rates before year-end, but any... 11th September 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update UK RICS Residential Market Survey (Aug. 2025) August’s RICS survey shows that the combination of weak employment, rebounding mortgage rates and fears over tax rises in the Budget on 26 th November are holding back housing activity, while rents... 11th September 2025 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Poland: limited boost from defence spending surge Poland has ramped up defence spending faster than any other NATO country in the past few years, but we estimate that the boost to GDP growth has been less than 0.2%-pts per year. A high reliance on... 10th September 2025 · 19 mins read
UK Housing Market Update UK mortgage arrears may not have peaked just yet The weak labour market means it’s too soon to conclude that the share of mortgages in arrears won’t rise further, although it will remain low relative to past standards. 10th September 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update UK PBSA may benefit from drop in US foreign students The number of visas granted to foreign students looking to study in the UK saw a substantial rise in Q2, likely reflecting a substantial fall in the numbers entering the US as restrictions there have... 10th September 2025 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily French bonds are up the Bayrou without a paddle The (largely expected) fall of the French government has made limited impact on euro-zone financial markets. But it represents another step in the gradual deterioration of the outlook for French... 9th September 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (Sep. 2025) Economic growth has been fairly resilient to tariffs so far and, as long as tariffs stay around the 15% agreed in the EU-US trade deal, the hit to activity should be small. But growth will be sluggish... 9th September 2025 · 1 min read
