UK Commercial Property Rapid Response Lending to UK commercial property (Dec. 25) Net lending secured against commercial property was strong again in December, reaching £2.47bn, taking the three-month rolling total to £6.69bn, its highest since May 2020. That was wholly driven by... 30th January 2026 · 1 min read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Money & Lending (Dec. 2025) December’s money and lending data suggest that households’ caution with their borrowing and saving hasn’t gone away, reinforcing our view that consumer spending will underperform the consensus... 30th January 2026 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response CEE GDP (Q4 2025 & Annual 2025) GDP figures out of Central Europe this morning show that Poland’s recovery gathered pace, while Hungary lagged behind. We think that growth will pick up across the region this year, although Poland... 30th January 2026 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Germany, France, Italy & Spain GDP (Q4 2025) National data published this morning suggest that euro-zone GDP grew by a slightly stronger-than-expected 0.3% q/q in Q4. Spain remained the star performer, while Germany, France and Italy also... 30th January 2026 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor EM Financial Risk Monitor (Jan. 2026) Our proprietary EM financial risk indicators show that vulnerabilities are becoming increasingly isolated, with the number of countries at “high risk” of a crisis now at multi-year lows. Sovereign... 29th January 2026 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: a fiscal health check A dramatic late-year cut to spending helped Russia’s government meet its deficit target of 2.6% of GDP last year. This does not signal that fiscal strains are forcing President Putin to scale back the... 29th January 2026 · 4 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Alternatives and prime assets lead the way in RICS survey The RICS survey showed overall occupier and investment market sentiment held in the doldrums at the end of 2025, with prospects for the major sectors muted. However, the outlook for prime assets was... 29th January 2026 · 3 mins read
ECB Watch ECB to leave policy unchanged again Nobody is expecting the ECB to change its policy stance or written guidance next week so the focus will be on the press conference. Christine Lagarde will be asked about the recent tariff threats... 29th January 2026 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response CEE Economic Sentiment Indicators (Jan. 2026) The European Commission’s Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) suggest that regional GDP growth held steady at around 2.5% y/y at the start of 2026, but divergence in... 29th January 2026 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone EC Survey (January 2026) January’s EC survey suggests that the economy got off to a fairly strong start to the year, with the services sector growing while industry continues to struggle. But the labour market has loosened... 29th January 2026 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Riksbank Policy Announcement (January 2026) While the Riksbank left its policy rate at 1.75% and its forward guidance unchanged today, the economic data have improved significantly over the past few months and have given us greater confidence... 29th January 2026 · 2 mins read
BoE Watch BoE’s wage worries to cement slower pace of rate cuts While leaving interest rates at 3.75% at the policy meeting on Thursday 5th February, the Bank of England will probably hint that the next rate cut isn’t imminent and imply that rates may not fall... 29th January 2026 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Update SNB on the FX sidelines, but negative rates coming We do not think that the SNB has intervened in FX markets in recent days despite the Swiss franc’s large appreciation. Instead, we think policymakers are likely to combat any disinflationary pressure... 28th January 2026 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Three market-moving EM elections to watch this year Elections in Brazil, Colombia and Hungary have the greatest potential to deliver large financial market moves this year. A shift towards more investor-friendly policymaking and improved fiscal... 28th January 2026 · 6 mins read
Global Commercial Property Update Data centers lift global CRE fundraising, but broader recovery fragile Global commercial real estate fundraising improved last year, but the details highlight that the pick-up was mostly driven by data centers. A broader market recovery was held back by investor caution... 28th January 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Lessons from the past and key UK fiscal policy risks for 2026 We expect the budget deficit to halve over the next three years and reach a 24-year low in 2030/31. But the risk of it overshooting our forecast over the next few years has grown. That could happen if... 28th January 2026 · 3 mins read
