Capital Daily UK fiscal fictions unlikely to prevent lower Gilt yields Today’s UK budget announcement contained no major surprises, leaving our forecast for the 10-year Gilt yield to fall further this year and sterling to struggle against other major currencies intact. 6th March 2024 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Interest Rate Announcement (Mar.) The National Bank of Poland (NBP) left interest rates on hold again today, at 5.75%, and the scope for monetary easing this year looks relatively limited. We still think there is a possibility that a... 6th March 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Spring Budget 2024 The net fiscal giveaway of £13.9bn (0.5% of GDP) in 2024/25 in the Budget may at the margin help lift the economy out of its mild recession before an election later this year. But a big tightening in... 6th March 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (January 2024) January’s retail sales data are consistent with our view that the near-term outlook for consumption is poor. 6th March 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Drop back in office completions to support prime rents Completions in Europe are set to increase over the next year or so as construction delays unwind, which will contribute to rising vacancy. However, we expect the upward pressure from supply to ease... 5th March 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Focus Why this will be the slowest global recovery on record Relatively high interest rates and structural problems within offices will weigh on the commercial real estate recovery over the next three years. Indeed, we forecast the upturn will be weaker than in... 4th March 2024 · 21 mins read
UK Housing Market Update The origin of the government’s 300,000 target We have traced the government’s target of building 300,000 new homes a year in England back to the 2004 Barker Review. Rerunning the calculations two decades on suggests 385,000 new homes a year would... 4th March 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Stickiest part of services inflation may soon worry BoE less Our view that the Bank of England will become less concerned by the most persistent part of services CPI inflation suggests that it will cut interest rates in the summer, perhaps in June. But the risk... 4th March 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Switzerland CPI (Feb. 2024) The period of disinflation in Switzerland is close to an end, but with inflation likely to remain close to 1% for the foreseeable future we think policymakers will start lowering interest rates later... 4th March 2024 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Feb.) The stronger-than-expected rise in Turkish inflation to 67.1% y/y in February adds to our concerns given that it comes on the back of a large increase in inflation in January and the strength of... 4th March 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Is Turkey’s economy getting the medicine it needs? The unexpected re-acceleration in Turkish GDP growth in Q4 challenges the view that aggressive monetary tightening delivered over the second half of last year is rebalancing the economy. If inflation... 1st March 2024 · 8 mins read
ECB Watch ECB won’t cut rates until June (at the earliest) Next week’s ECB meeting looks set to be a fairly predictable one (famous last words…) in which policymakers leave interest rates unchanged and say they want more evidence that inflation is subsiding... 1st March 2024 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Housing leading the economy out of recession The government’s desperation to close the gap on Labour in the opinion polls means surprisingly big tax cuts shouldn’t be ruled out from the Budget on Wednesday despite the fiscal constraints that... 1st March 2024 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB patient, SNB eyeing early rate cut This week's data releases will have reinforced the view of ECB policymakers that they should be patient before beginning to loosen monetary policy. Indeed, the monthly pace of services inflation... 1st March 2024 · 7 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Germany not the only source of debt distress in Europe Recent media attention has focused on the downturn in Germany and the travails of its lenders exposed to the crash in property values both domestically and in the US. While the focus on Europe’s... 1st March 2024 · 3 mins read