UK Commercial Property Update UK commercial property returns to hit five-year high in 2026 As we expected, and in contrast to consensus, all-property yields saw no compression in 2025. But stronger-than-expected rental growth means our call for all-property total returns of 6.6% in 2025... 6th January 2026 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Current account deficit no concern for Israeli shekel Israel posted a rare current account deficit in Q3, its first quarterly deficit in a decade, but we don’t think this is a concern and expect the current account to return to surplus in the coming... 6th January 2026 · 4 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone national inflation data (December) National inflation data released so far suggest that euro-zone headline inflation fell below 2% in December and that the core rate edged down. ECB policymakers will take that as confirmation that... 6th January 2026 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Reviewing our key calls for 2025 The recovery in European property values in 2025 was broadly as we forecasted. However, the drivers differed slightly from our expectations, with a smaller-than-expected fall in prime property yields... 6th January 2026 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Israel Interest Rate Announcement (Jan.) The Bank of Israel opted to reduce its policy rate by another 25bp to 4.00% today, and the tone of its communications suggests that its easing cycle has further to run. We now expect a further 50bp of... 5th January 2026 · 2 mins read
UK Commercial Property Rapid Response Lending to UK commercial property (Nov. 25) Net lending secured against commercial property accelerated again in November, reaching £2.49bn, the second strongest monthly increase since May 2020 when banks granted interest payment holidays. 5th January 2026 · 1 min read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Money & Lending (Nov. 2025) November’s money and lending figures suggest that while the pre-Budget speculation about tax rises had little influence on households’ borrowing decisions, they were inclined to save a bit more. 5th January 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Rapid Response UK Nationwide House Prices (Dec. 2025) December’s 0.4% m/m decline in Nationwide house prices rounds off a tough year for the housing market and suggests the combination of still-high mortgage rates and weak employment are still weighing... 2nd January 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Are we too pessimistic about CEE retail rents? So far CEE markets have proved more resilient to the slowdown in European retail rents. While risks still skew to the upside, we expect that CEE retail rent growth rates will slow further, with... 23rd December 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK GDP (Q3 2025 Final) Although GDP growth was unrevised at 0.1% q/q in Q3, the shape of growth is a bit healthier and less reliant on the public sector than the first estimate suggested. That said, the economy is still... 22nd December 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Weekly 2026 – Key themes and possible surprises We think 2026 will be the year inflation finally falls to the 2.0% target prompting the Bank of England to cut interest rates further than most expect, from 3.75% now to 3.00%. This final Weekly of... 19th December 2025 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB looking on the bright side The ECB was in a slightly festive mood this week as officials nudged up their forecasts for economic growth and inflation. We think this is only partly justified as we are sceptical about President... 19th December 2025 · 10 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly MNB’s dovish shift, Russia & oil prices, Ukraine’s loan The Hungarian central bank’s dovish communications following its decision to leave policy settings unchanged this week suggest the risks have become skewed to an interest rate cut arriving earlier... 19th December 2025 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia Interest Rate Announcement (Dec.) The Central Bank of Russia cut its policy rate by 50bp today, to 16.00%, as was expected by most analysts, and further monetary easing is likely next year. That said, with the disinflation process... 19th December 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Retail Sales & Public Finances (Nov. 2025) November’s retail sales and public finances data reveal some tentative signs of improvement, but both are coming too late to make much difference to retailers in the so-called “Golden Quarter” and for... 19th December 2025 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Dec. 2025) EM capital outflows continued over the past month, driven by equities while bond inflows persisted. Even if outflows continue, strong external balance sheets mean that most EMs are well placed to... 18th December 2025 · 0 mins read
