Europe Economics Update High demand to spur construction in southern Europe Booming demand for housing has led to huge price rises in southern Europe over the past few years and will support rapid construction growth for some time to come. Moreover, there is little risk of a... 13th February 2025 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Peace in Ukraine? Market implications of Trump-Putin call President Trump’s push for a peace agreement in the Russia-Ukraine war would affect major financial markets mainly through lowering energy prices, especially in Europe. In turn, that would be a boost... 13th February 2025 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: growth has peaked but war adds to uncertainty GDP growth in Russia came in stronger than most expected last year at 4.1%, but this was accompanied by significant overheating and policymakers lost control of inflation. We think the period of rapid... 13th February 2025 · 4 mins read
UK Commercial Property Valuation Monitor UK Commercial Property Valuation Monitor (Q1 25) Property valuations worsened in Q4 as alternative asset yields rose and property yields essentially held steady. 13th February 2025 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Implications of an earlier Ukraine peace deal for Europe President Trump’s push for an early peace agreement in Ukraine raises the prospect of higher defence spending in Europe and increases the chance of a fall in European natural gas prices. But it does... 13th February 2025 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Trump’s reciprocal tariffs – who’s at risk? If the Trump administration pursues a reciprocal tariff strategy rather than a 10% universal tariff, then it could result in a smaller rise in the overall effective tariff rate than we have assumed... 13th February 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (December 2024) The fall in euro-zone industrial production in December means that the sector contracted again in Q4. Surveys suggest that production will remain subdued in the coming months and we think that the... 13th February 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Swiss CPI (January) The fall in inflation in January was a little smaller than we had anticipated and perhaps reduces the risk of Switzerland falling into deflation later this year. But we still think the SNB is most... 13th February 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK GDP (Dec. & Q4 2024) The 0.1% q/q rise in real GDP in Q4 (consensus, CE and BoE forecasts all -0.1%) leaves the economy all-but stagnating as businesses adjust to higher taxes and more uncertainty from overseas. We aren’t... 13th February 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update RICS Residential Market Survey (Jan. 2025) January’s RICS survey suggests that the recent rises in mortgage rates and the downbeat economic outlook weighed on housing demand at the start of this year. But bigger falls in mortgage rates than... 13th February 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Could the EU target US services? Any attempt by the EU to impose tariffs on imports of US services would be controversial and difficult to implement. It is more likely that the EU links regulation and domestic taxation of digital... 12th February 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Retail is back, but online will remain a drag into the 2030s Five years ago, the retail sector was staring at the abyss, as lockdowns and virus-related restrictions worsened what was already a crisis in demand. The turnaround since has been dramatic. But while... 12th February 2025 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Upside inflation risks build across CEE The latest CPI data out of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) have been stronger than expected, and leading indicators suggest that inflation across the region may be higher than we previously... 12th February 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Lack of labour casts shadow over Greek recovery Prospects for Greece’s economy are brighter than for the core euro-zone economies over the next year or two, but a shortage of labour will keep growth lower than in fellow “peripheral” economies... 12th February 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update German election: return of the GroKo? The latest opinion polls suggest that a CDU-SPD coalition is the most likely outcome of the German election. Such a coalition would be less likely to pursue labour market reforms and activist... 11th February 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Revising down our UK GDP forecasts to below the consensus Higher taxes for businesses, a lingering drag from the previous interest rate hikes and softer overseas demand explain why we have revised down our UK GDP growth forecasts, from 1.3% to 0.7% for 2025... 11th February 2025 · 5 mins read
