UK Housing Market Update Prime central London house prices to continue to lag behind After falling by 16% from their 2021 peak to their recent trough in March, prime central London (PCL) house prices have risen in each of the three months to June. But with prime buyers less reliant on... 4th September 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Swiss CPI (August) Headline inflation was unchanged in August and is still likely to remain close to, but above, zero over the coming months. While today’s data and recent comments by SNB Vice Chairman Antoine Martin... 4th September 2025 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Why are Gilts the sick man of the bond market? While the sell-off in government bond markets has abated a bit today, the UK Gilt market continues to stand out, and not in a good way. Nonetheless, we continue to think that Gilt yields will... 3rd September 2025 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Interest Rate Announcement (Sep.) The National Bank of Poland cut its policy rate by 25bp again today, to 4.75%, but we think that monetary easing over the coming year will be smaller than most anticipate. 3rd September 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Revisiting our Sweden GDP forecast Despite the strong rebound in Q2, Sweden’s economy has fared worse so far this year than many expected. We now forecast it to grow only moderately over the remainder of the year, before returning to... 3rd September 2025 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Aug. 2025) The continued decline in Turkish inflation last month, to 33.0% y/y, keeps the door open to large interest rate cuts at the central bank’s meeting next Thursday. That said, with inflation coming in a... 3rd September 2025 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Parsing the long-end bond sell off As long-end government bond yields continue to rise, identifying the culprit for the latest sell-off becomes ever more pressing. 2nd September 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update How big a risk is contagion from France? Contagion from France’s government bond market to the rest of the euro-zone will probably be muted and short-lived unless France’s own crisis becomes much bigger than we expect. This is partly because... 2nd September 2025 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Focus Fracturing in the Age of Trump The global geopolitical map could have been redrawn by the end of Donald Trump’s second term. Some form of rapprochement between the US and China is conceivable in the next few years, as is a... 2nd September 2025 · 38 mins read
UK Economics Update Which taxes could (and should) the UK Chancellor raise? If the Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, is going to continue to meet her fiscal rule with a buffer of £9.9bn, she will probably have to raise £18-28bn in the Autumn Budget, mostly via higher taxes. We... 2nd September 2025 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Update How much will the UK Chancellor need to raise in the Budget? Our latest estimate suggests the Chancellor will need to raise £18-28bn in the Budget to avoid breaking her fiscal rules and to maintain her £9.9bn buffer. With Labour MPs not amenable to spending... 2nd September 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Flash HICP (August) The small increase in headline inflation to 2.1% in August makes little difference for policymakers at the ECB who look certain to leave interest rates unchanged at next week’s meeting and probably... 2nd September 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Update Prop to UK inflation from linked prices will fade Even though the components of inflation that are directly linked to past inflation rates have played a big role in the recent rebound in CPI inflation, we think their influence will fade over the next... 1st September 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Rapid Response Lending to UK commercial property (Jul. 25) Net lending to property was strong again in July, reaching £1.8bn. While this was a slightly lower outturn than June, it nevertheless drove an acceleration in the three-month total, which hit £6.0bn... 1st September 2025 · 1 min read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Money & Lending (Jul. 2025) July’s money and lending data show that interest rate cuts are yet to significantly boost economic activity and that the prospect of tax hikes in the Autumn Budget may be making households a bit more... 1st September 2025 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Emerging Europe Manufacturing PMIs (Aug.) The manufacturing PMIs out of Emerging Europe remained at weak levels in August suggesting that industry continues to be a drag on the region’s growth. That said, other survey data suggest that... 1st September 2025 · 2 mins read
