UK Economics Rapid Response UK GDP (Feb. 2025) The surprisingly strong 0.5% m/m rise in GDP in February (consensus +0.1%, CE 0.0%) and the upward revision to January GDP from -0.1% m/m to 0.0% m/m came as a pleasant surprise. But higher US tariffs... 11th April 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Risks tilted towards faster falls in UK inflation and interest rates Despite President Trump’s latest decision to pause the US’s “reciprocal” tariff regime for 90 days, there is still a real risk that the second-order effects of higher US tariffs on the UK economy are... 10th April 2025 · 4 mins read
ECB Watch ECB Watch: Keep calm and carry on cutting Despite President Trump’s latest decision to pause the additional tariffs for 90 days, his farcical on-and-off tariff announcements will still have a big impact on the world economy. We are not... 10th April 2025 · 7 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Trump tariffs to drag on German industrial leasing Trump’s tariffs have darkened the outlook for industrial demand across Europe, but Germany looks more exposed than most. Even if the paused 20% reciprocal tariff on EU imports is not reinstated, the... 10th April 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Trade war will be disinflationary for the euro-zone Despite the 90-day pause to the US’s “reciprocal” tariff regime, ECB policymakers will still need to assess the impact of higher US tariffs for euro-zone inflation. Some have argued that tariffs could... 10th April 2025 · 4 mins read
UK Housing Market Update UK RICS Residential Market Survey (Mar. 2025) March’s RICS survey suggests both the weak domestic economy and the headwinds from the global tariff storm continue to increase the downside risks to our 2025 forecasts for housing demand and prices... 10th April 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Market chaos puts upward pressure on UK commercial property yields With the exception of some industrial assets, commercial property in the UK is not directly impacted by the higher tariffs announced by President Trump and property equities have performed relatively... 9th April 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (Apr. 2025) Higher US tariffs will be a substantial drag on the euro-zone economy this year. Looser fiscal policy in Germany will give a small boost in 2026, but overall we expect the euro-zone to grow fairly... 9th April 2025 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (April 2025) Higher US tariffs will be a substantial drag on the euro-zone economy this year. Looser fiscal policy in Germany will give a small boost in 2026, but overall we expect the euro-zone to grow fairly... 8th April 2025 · 0 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Answering key client questions from our roundtables on how the pandemic continues to shape real estate Last week we held a series of roundtable discussions with clients in our London office about how the pandemic will shape real estate into the 2030s. This note shares our answers to some of the most... 8th April 2025 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Israel Interest Rate Announcement (Apr.) The Bank of Israel left its policy rate on hold again today, at 4.50%, and sounded a bit more hawkish than at its previous meeting despite highlighting possibly quite a large hit to economic activity... 7th April 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Romania Interest Rate Announcement (Apr.) The communications accompanying the decision by the National Bank of Romania to leave its policy rate on hold today, at 6.50%, highlighted two-sided risks to inflation and economic activity from US... 7th April 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (February 2025) Euro-zone retail sales rose in February for the first time since September last year, and we expect consumer spending to grow at a modest pace over the coming months. But higher US tariffs and the... 7th April 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Rapid Response UK Halifax House Prices (Mar. 2025) The 0.5% m/m fall in Halifax house prices in March provides further evidence that the boost from buyers rushing to complete home purchases before the rise in stamp duty on 1 st April had already run... 7th April 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response German Industrial Production (February) The fall in German industrial production in February left it very weak. With US demand generating around 7% of German manufacturing value added, the sector will be hit hard by US tariffs. And higher... 7th April 2025 · 2 mins read
