Event UK Drop-In: Housing and commercial property winners and losers 24th March 2026, 10:00AM GMT The Iran conflict adds fresh uncertainty to what was already shaping up to be a fragile recovery for UK commercial property. But how significant is this renewed instability in the Middle East for UK…
Capital Daily Why the UK stock market isn’t doing better despite higher oil prices The Gilt market has grabbed a lot of headlines since the start of the war in the Middle East, as government bond yields have surged by more in the UK than elsewhere in response to soaring oil prices... 17th March 2026 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update Which European countries are most exposed to higher energy prices? The rise in energy prices resulting from the Iran conflict will have an adverse impact on most European economies. In the euro-zone, Germany and Italy are more exposed than France, though Germany has... 17th March 2026 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily War and monetary policy, and what it means for markets Major central bank meetings this week will give investors an early sense of how monetary policymakers will respond to the war. We suspect there isn’t much good news in the offing for bonds. 16th March 2026 · 6 mins read
Commodities Weekly Russia sanction relief barely helps; cracks in refined markets The temporary easing of Russian oil sanctions by the US is one of several levers being pulled by policymakers to reduce oil prices from ~$100pb. But despite these efforts, prices will remain high for... 13th March 2026 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly How might governments respond to the energy shock? If oil and natural gas prices remain high, it seems very likely that governments will step in with some fiscal support. The scale of that support is uncertain, but even if energy prices rise much... 13th March 2026 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Middle East conflict already hurting the UK economy The rises in petrol prices and mortgage rates show that the new stagflationary pressures we previously warned about due to the conflict in the Middle East have arrived. We think the Bank of England... 13th March 2026 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Headaches for central banks If the conflict in the Middle East causes energy prices to rise further – and for a prolonged period – policymakers in Emerging Europe are probably going to be more inclined to raise rates than those... 13th March 2026 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK GDP (Jan. 2026) With GDP not rising at all in January, it is clear the economy was subdued even before the leap in energy prices triggered by the Middle East conflict. We previously thought GDP growth would be 1.0%... 13th March 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack UK Economics Chart Pack (Mar. 2026) The impact of the conflict in the Middle East on energy markets and the UK economy remains highly uncertain. As things stand, we suspect the most likely scenario is one in which the conflict comes to... 12th March 2026 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Emerging Markets Chart Pack (March 2026) The conflict in the Middle East will lead to sharp falls in GDP in the Gulf economies and weigh on energy importers, especially in Asia. EM energy producers outside the Gulf will see a terms-of-trade... 12th March 2026 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update How will the UK government respond to higher energy prices? This has been updated to reflect the latest developments as well as our new Baseline and Adverse scenarios. Even in our adverse scenario, we have assumed the fiscal support for households and... 12th March 2026 · 5 mins read
ECB Watch ECB to stress readiness to respond to energy shock The ECB is not going to respond to the jump in energy prices by raising interest rates next week. But we expect it to state that the upside risks to inflation have increased, implying that the chance... 12th March 2026 · 9 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Interest Rate Announcement (Mar. 2026) Turkey’s central bank (CBRT) opted to leave interest rates unchanged today, suggesting that – for now – it deems the effective 300bp of tightening delivered via the interest rate corridor sufficient... 12th March 2026 · 2 mins read
BoE Watch BoE Watch: Delayed cuts, cancelled cuts or interest rate hikes? There are plausible scenarios in which the Middle East conflict prompts the Bank of England to delay interest rate cuts, cancel interest rate cuts or hike interest rates. As delay seems the most... 12th March 2026 · 6 mins read
UK Housing Market Update UK RICS Residential Market Survey (Feb. 2026) February’s RICS housing market survey suggests that the events in the Middle East are dampening buyer sentiment and appear to have tempered the strengthening in the housing market at the start of this... 12th March 2026 · 3 mins read
