Commodities Update Platinum set to take a narrow lead over palladium A slowdown in the adoption of EVs – along with an increasing preference for hybrids – is likely to increase demand for platinum by a bit more than for palladium over the coming years. Accordingly... 6th February 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Risk of CRE debt distress greater in the EZ than the UK A stabilisation in capital values and decline in interest rates have sparked optimism that we may be past the worst of the real estate debt refinancing challenge. That indeed looks to be the case in... 6th February 2025 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Update Rising chance of BoE rates falling quicker to 3.50% and further While cutting interest rates from 4.75% to 4.50% today, which was the third 25 basis point (bps) cut in seven months, the Bank of England showed some signs that it may cut rates faster and further... 6th February 2025 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Czech Interest Rate Announcement (Feb.) The Czech National Bank (CNB) cut its policy rate by 25bp today, to 3.75%, and we think that further easing lies in store this year. Our forecast for the policy rate to fall to 3.00% by end-2025 would... 6th February 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response Bank of England Policy Announcement (6th Feb 2025) While cutting interest rates from 4.75% to 4.50% today, which was the third 25 basis point (bps) cut in seven months, the Bank of England showed some signs that it may cut rates faster and further... 6th February 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Dec. 24) December’s fall in euro-zone retail sales means that growth over Q4 as a whole slowed substantially. We suspect that spending growth will remain subdued in the coming quarters. 6th February 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Commercial Property Rapid Response S&P Global/ CIPS UK Construction PMI (Jan. 25) The headline CIPS construction PMI dropped to 48.1 in January, from 53.3 in December, indicating the first contraction in activity since February 2024. 6th February 2025 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack UK Economics Chart Pack (Feb. 2025) Despite the recent weak news on activity and the uncertainty around the global outlook due to Trump’s US import tariffs, the stronger news on domestic price pressures means the Bank of England will... 5th February 2025 · 1 min read
US Commercial Property Update COVID five years on: How the pandemic continues to shape real estate markets Five years on from the start of the pandemic and the structural shifts it brought about continue to underpin real estate performance. Over the coming weeks, we will publish a series of pieces that... 5th February 2025 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Interest Rate Announcement (Feb.) The National Bank of Poland left its policy rate on hold again today, at 5.75%, and we think that interest rates will remain on hold throughout 2025. That’s a more hawkish forecast than the consensus... 5th February 2025 · 2 mins read
Global Markets Update Turkish assets may keep doing well despite global challenges Notwithstanding negative FX returns and a challenging external backdrop brought about by Donald Trump’s agenda, we think Turkish bonds and equities will continue to perform relatively well in 2025, as... 5th February 2025 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Is this the start of a major central bank divergence? We held an online Drop-In session last week to discuss the outlook for interest rates in major advanced economies as the Fed hit the pause button while the ECB cut again. (See a recording here .) The... 4th February 2025 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Focus German economy post-election: from bad to not much better We expect Germany’s next government to reform the national fiscal rule to allow some tax cuts and increased public investment. But it is likely to make slow progress on structural reforms such as... 4th February 2025 · 22 mins read
UK Housing Market Outlook UK Housing Outlook: Housing to shrug off the weak economy Our forecast that mortgage rates will fall further than widely expected suggests that a decent recovery in transactions will allow house prices to rise by around 3.5% this year and by 4.5% next year... 4th February 2025 · 17 mins read
Europe Economics Update Four quick points on Europe and the "trade war" This weekend’s US trade policy announcements and Trump’s threats to impose tariffs on Europe raise the question of whether there is a bigger risk to the euro-zone than we had thought. This Update... 3rd February 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone HICP (January 2025) January’s inflation data won’t change ECB policymakers’ minds about the likely near-term path for interest rates. The fact that services inflation remained high will mean that they will prefer to... 3rd February 2025 · 2 mins read
