Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary: first thoughts on Tisza’s manifesto The manifesto published by Tisza, the Hungarian opposition party which is currently the front-runner to win the upcoming election in April, sets out ambitious plans to unlock frozen EU funds, rein in... 9th February 2026 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Consensus overcautious on Spanish consumers While the consensus expects economic growth in Spain to slow in 2026, we think that strong consumption will keep the economy growing at a similar pace to the 2.8% recorded last year. 9th February 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (Feb. 2026) We expect euro-zone GDP growth to be fairly sluggish in the coming years. Germany’s fiscal stimulus should provide only a temporary and fairly modest boost, and we don’t think it will do much to raise... 9th February 2026 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Takaichi’s triumph, UK drama, US data: what it means for markets Calm may be on the way for Japan’s markets now the election is out of the way: we don’t expect a further sell-off in JGBs and forecast a stronger yen. But renewed political turmoil in the UK might be... 9th February 2026 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Update Three scenarios for the UK economy and markets if Starmer/Reeves are replaced This note republishes our three scenarios for the economy and the financial markets should Keir Starmer and/or Rachel Reeves be replaced as Prime Minister and Chancellor. In each scenario, gilt yields... 8th February 2026 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia Annual GDP (2025) The slowdown in Russian GDP growth to 1.0% in 2025 is consistent with a slight pickup in momentum in the economy in Q4, but the big picture is that the economy is under strain due to the war... 6th February 2026 · 2 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update A strong Q4 doesn’t mean UK commercial property investment is set to boom Commercial property investment hit a record high in Q4, but we doubt that signals the start of a strong recovery. Admittedly, a fall in financing costs will give transactions something of a boost in... 6th February 2026 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Political wobbles, dovish BoE, rebound in activity won’t last The dovish surprise at this week's Bank of England meeting, including the downward revision to the Bank's GDP growth forecasts despite the recent rebound in activity, leaves us more confident in our... 6th February 2026 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Christine Lagarde’s wishful thinking on AI This week’s inflation data and ECB decision were in line with expectations. In this Weekly we take a look at Christine Lagarde’s claim that there is a significant AI-related pick-up in investment in... 6th February 2026 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russia-India energy relations, Turkey CPI, CEE rates We are sceptical that India will fully curtail its oil imports from Russia as part of the US-India trade deal announced this week, but even a partial scaling back of purchases could add to strains in... 6th February 2026 · 5 mins read
UK Housing Market Rapid Response UK Halifax House Prices (Jan. 2026) The 0.7% m/m rebound in the Halifax measure of house prices in January suggests the housing market started 2026 on a stronger footing than the 0.3% m/m rise on the Nationwide index implied. We think... 6th February 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response German Industrial Production (December) The slump in German industrial production in December pours cold water on the hopes of an industrial recovery. And though the recent pick-up in industrial orders suggests the outlook for the start of... 6th February 2026 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Weighing up the implications of today’s MPC and ECB meetings A dovish UK MPC meeting prompted big falls in both short-dated Gilt yields and sterling today, whereas there wasn’t so much reaction in the markets to the ECB’s gathering. We think there is scope for... 5th February 2026 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update Critical mineral stockpiles are a symptom of fracturing The stockpiling of critical minerals is an age-old response to a modern-day problem posed by China’s dominance over the supply of rare earths and other raw materials. That said, “Project Vault” will... 5th February 2026 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB on hold for several more months While the ECB left rates on hold today and put a positive spin on the outlook for the economy, we think its next move is likely be a rate cut, albeit not until much later in the year. 5th February 2026 · 3 mins read
